FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 9
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 70 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:30PM EST with three games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,400) Let me start today’s article by pointing out we only have a three game slate so the ability to differentiate your lineups in any real meaningful way is going to be very difficult. On short slates like this I tend to limit my tournament exposure (and entry fees in general) but we still have enough intriguing options we can look to build around.
I mentioned we have a three game slate but with one of those games being Dallas-Minnesota with a sub 200 total, we may really only have two games we want to choose from. The reality is from a roster construction perspective, I do not think tonight is a night you even have to ask whether you should roster Russell Westbrook – simply click his name in and move on.
Westbrook comes into this game with 65+ FanDuel points in each of his last three games. Sorry, but I do not think this is a spot where you can even remotely fade him and expect to cash. Play the man.
Michael Carter-Williams ($4,800) On slates like this, I am fine eating the chalk for the high-priced players but understand that it is the value plays that will likely determine your ability to stay above the cash line.
All year-long, I have looked to stack point guards going up against OKC as the Thunder rank 21st in DvP to opposing PG’s. Since taking over as the starting point guard, MCW has played at least 25 minutes in three of the four games and is averaging 20 FanDuel points per night.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Buddy Hield ($4,100) and Courtney Lee ($4,100) Outside of OKC-Chicago, the New York and New Orleans games will be the best spot for fantasy production with the highest combined team total of 214.
All the big stars in this game are in play but at shooting guard, I like the idea of stacking both teams options here as they are locked into major minutes and provide much-needed salary relief.
Hield has really taken a step forward in recent games, having exceeded 6x value in three of his last five games while averaging over 23 FanDuel points per contest. Hield has played 30+ minutes in two of the last three games and tonight takes on a Knicks team that is 27th in DvP to opposing SG’s.
Lee is not someone we typically look to roster but on a short slate like this, we are forced to dig deep. Lee has played 34+ minutes in three of his last four games while averaging just under 20 FanDuel points per game. On a short slate like this, I expect scores to be significantly lower than the season averages so targeting 6x players may not be needed and instead I will look to lock in players with guaranteed minutes that allow me the salary flexibility to pay up for the elite stars.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($9,600) Ever since the removal of Rajon Rondo from the starting lineup, Jimmy Butler has been producing at an insane level. In the four games since Rondo’s demotion, Butler has been averaging 58.4 FanDuel points per game and on a short slate he is officially a fade at your own risk kind of player.
As I mentioned, with the Dallas-Minnesota game being one I will likely avoid (but would make for an intriguing contrarian GPP stack), our options become very limited and I think paying up for Butler at SF is a must. I expect Westbrook and Butler to put on a show in this one and will have 100% exposure to him on this slate.
UPDATE: Butler is a GTD call now due to illness. Keep an eye on this news as it would significantly change roster construction!
Doug McDermott ($4,000) Dougie Buckets is coming into this game off two straight high scoring affairs where he put up 27.7 and 30.5 FanDuel points. I certainly never like chasing bench players like are pure scorers but on this slate McDermott has one thing I do look for – minutes.
In his last six games, McDermott has played no fewer than 29 minutes in any single game and that opportunity alone makes him worth the roster spot at this price tag!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($11,100) The third member of my ultra stars-scrubs roster approach on this slate! Of the three, this is the one player I could make the case for a strategic fade due to his inconsistency but the match-up against the Knicks is one I expect he will dominate.
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In this spot just a few games ago, AD put up 23 points and 18 rebounds for 46.6 FanDuel points as The Brow has been playing more time at the Center spot in recent weeks. The Knicks are giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing Centers on the year so this could be one of those massive Brow games that we have a hard time fading on a three game slate!
Donatas Motiejunas ($3,800) Motiejunas made his season debut for the Pelicans in his last game and played a surprising 20 minutes and was a force on the Pelicans second unit. Motie put up 11 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists for 25 FanDuel points which would exceed 7x value at this minimum price point. On a night when we need value, I am happy to go back to the well here and hope that Motie’s debut went overlooked on an NFL Playoff weekend!
Steven Adams ($5,900) Center may be the hardest position on this slate to fill as the value options are largely underwhelming, so I like the idea of locking in the stability and upside that Adams provides. Adams has been playing phenomenal basketball over the last week with 34+ FanDuel points in three of his last four games. The Bulls represent a middle of the road match-up against Centers but Adams presents the best bang for your buck opportunity at this position while allowing enough salary to afford Monday Night’s Big 3.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter throughout the day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!