FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 10
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 70 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.1 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($8,900) Looking over this slate we have a variety of solid mid-tier options and early value so we should be able to fit in a few high priced stars in our lineups. Point guard is a spot I am looking to spend up at on this slate and will start my lineups with the Portland PG, Damian Lillard.
Portland and the Lakers have the highest combined team total on the slate (224) and with a 1.5 point spread this is going to be my favorite game to target on Tuesday. The Lakers are 26th in DvP to opposing PG’s and Lillard just dropped 40 FanDuel points against them in his last game out, his first since returning from injury.
The upside is immense here for Lillard and with a deflated price point, I believe there is sneaky profit to be had here and it would not suprise me if Lillard ended up as one of the high point scorers on the evening!
Isaiah Thomas ($8,900) With the early news that Avery Bradley will be out on Tuesday, consider IT4 a lock for my lineups on Tuesday. When Bradley is out of the lineup, Thomas essentially becomes the Celtics offense and the statistics would back it up!
With Bradley out this season, Thomas has a 38.1% usage rate (3% increase) and averages 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Assuming Thomas gets his usual 35+ minutes, we are looking at a a 50 spot tonight for IT4. The Celtics and Raptors have a 219 combined team total on this slate, the third highest, and is a spot we should ensure we have exposure to.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Jeremy Lamb ($4,000) With Nicolas Batum out due to injury, Lamb stepped into the starting lineup last game out and put up 13 points, 8 rebounds and 28.1 FanDuel points which would exceed 7x value at this price point.
The price on FanDuel has barely moved since that game and tonight he gets to face a Rockets team that is 25th in DvP against opposing SG’s. This game has the second highest combined team total on the slate and with Kemba Walker being blanketed by Patrick Beverley, I am going to load up on Lamb in this spot!
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,500) With Kyle Korver in Cleveland, Tim Hardaway Jr. will get added run for the Hawks and gets an elite match-up against the Nets on Tuesday. The Nets are ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SG’s and Hardaway should be able to rack up points against a porous Nets defense.
In his last game out against Dallas, Hardaway put up 22 points and 35.2 FanDuel points in 31 minutes of action and at this price point, allows you elite scoring upside with the salary savings to pay up at other spots!
James Harden ($11,700) Initially I was not looking to spend up for Harden on this slate, but with the Bulls injury news (Wade AND Butler OUT), we have a ton of value options we can utilize to open up salary elsewhere and there is no better DFS talent on this slate than The Beard.
The Rockets have the second highest team total on this slate and Harden now has 50+ FanDuel points in six of his last seven games! Without Nicolas Batum on the court, this is a spot Harden should exploit and he is worth the salary investment tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Doug McDermott ($4,000) The Bulls were an absolute mess on Monday night prior to lock with minimal news on the status of Jimmy Butler which ultimately led me to pare down my entries to two single entry GPP’s and essentially avoid the slate altogether. With the Derrick Rose news, the Carmelo Anthony ejection and the Butler ultimately leaving the game, this was a slate that left most people in bad spots!
You know who played and was 40% owned on that slate? Dougie McBuckets! Yes, Doug McDermott was 40% owned in DFS, insane! Well after putting up an absolute stinker, 9.4 FanDuel points to be exact, I expect the masses will be off McDermott tonight.
The issue we have here is that Dwayne Wade AND Jimmy Butler have already been ruled out and with Rajon Rondo firmly glued to the bench, the production is now going to come from role players. This opens up a ton of value on the slate for the Bulls players and I expect McDermott will be a lock for 30+ minutes tonight!
DeMarre Carroll ($3,800) Heading back to Toronto-Boston, Carroll is one of my favorite value plays on the slate at just $300 more than the minimum price.
The price may be low but the minutes for Carroll are off the charts as he has now played 39, 41 and 34 minutes in each of his last three games. If you read Picks and Pivots often, you will know that I love to target value plays with guaranteed minutes and Carroll checks that box tonight for me!
The Celtics are 26th in DvP to opposing SF’s and Carroll is coming off a monster 36.6 FanDuel point outing against the Rockets. All signs point to another strong outing for Carroll and his salary savings open up all sorts of roster flexibility!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Julius Randle ($7,200) No team gives up more fantasy points to opposing PF’s this season than the Portland Trail Blazers and Randle comes into this game, simply delivering on a nightly basis for the Lakers.
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Over his last five games, Randle is averaging over 40 FanDuel points per game and just dropped 35 FanDuel points against this same Portland team last week. Randle is one of my favorite plays on the board as he has a safe 30 point floor with demonstrated 50 point upside.
Tobias Harris ($6,100) Harris now has 30+ FanDuel points in seven of his last eight games and tonight faces off with a Sacramento team that is 28th in DvP to opposing PF’s. Harris may be forced to enter the starting lineup tonight with Jon Leuer nursing an injury and this would actually hurt his value in my opinion.
The only game Harris did not hit 30+ FanDuel points over his last eight games was the one he started so keep an eye on the news here! I would expect if he moves into the starting lineup we will see his ownership increase as well so a strategic fade may be in play in that scenario!
If you are looking for a pivot, take a look at Taj Gibson ($4,700) who is essentially the last man standing here in Chicago! The price has dropped due to his recent slump but the last time out against the Wizards, Gibson put up 17 and 11 for 35 FanDuel points which would crush value at this price point. The Wizards are ranked 21st in DvP on the season, so there is the potential for value here!
Mason Plumlee ($6,700) Another steady DFS producer can be found in Portland as Mason Plumlee has now exceeded 30 FanDuel points in each of his last four games, including two 40+ point outings.
The Lakers are 25th in DvP to opposing Centers and Plumlee just racked up 32 FanDuel points against this Lakers team just a few days ago! I love the consistency of Plumlee and he will likely go overlooked on this slate and allow us to gain even more exposure to the best fantasy game of the night!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking news and roster updates!