FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 11
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 71 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with six games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Damian Lillard ($9,000) As I write this article prior to 6AM EST, keep in mind many of the games on tonight’s six game slate still do not have totals/lines so we have to keep an eye out for injury news during the day!
The game I am looking to target the most on this slate is the late night hammer as Portland takes on Cleveland. With no total yet and both teams on a back to back, this is a spot where the Cavs may sit someone so keep an eye out(I am assuming for now they all play).
These two teams met up earlier this season and put on an absolute show, so a fantasy game stack is fully in play here considering these two teams played to a 137-125 game in regulation! Lillard was a monster in that game, putting up 40 points, 11 assists and 7 rebounds for 62.9 FanDuel points!
Kyrie Irving presents one of the best individual match-ups to opposing PG’s and this is a spot where you can target Lillard as a one-off play or as part of a game stack!
D.J. Augustin($3,700) With a handful of high-priced stars I am looking to get exposure to, we will need some value on this slate and with Elfrid Payton questionable to play, it opens up some intriguing value for Augustin and the Magic.
The match-up against Chris Paul is not one we typically look to target, but at this price point, D.J. would only need 22 FanDuel points to hit 6x value, a number he has reached in each of the last two games while playing 28 and 29 minutes per contest.
The other big news here is that Serge Ibaka is questionable and if both Payton and Ibaka are out, Augustin sees a massive 7% usage bump on the season and has put up .78 fantasy points/minute with those two off the floor. Assuming Augustin sees 30 minutes of run tonight, he should be able to exceed 6x value once again based off his production bump with these two off the floor!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
J.J. Redick ($4,500) The Shooting Guard position on this slate essentially boils down to James Harden or value in my eyes and with my roster construction around some other big name stars, this is a spot I will likely look for value when building my rosters.
Over his last four games, Redick is averaging over 27 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 6x salary at this price point. In each of those games, Redick has played at least 32 minutes so the combination of depressed price point and guaranteed minutes makes him an ideal punt play.
Evan Fournier ($5,800) The Magic may have the lowest team total on the slate but there is some very intriguing value to be had here. The way I see it, the Magic are projected to score roughly 100 points, and with Ibaka and Payton likely out tonight, someone on the Magic is going to have to carry the load!
Fournier is a very solid play as he has seen 30+ minutes in each of his last three games since returning from injury and the fantasy production has increased with each outing, including 29.5 FanDuel points against the Lakers. With Ibaka and Payton off the floor, Fournier sees a nice usage bump to 29.4% and I would expect he, like most of the Magic will go overlooked in this spot!
UPDATE: One GPP play I have uncovered as the day has gone on is Gerald Green ($3,500) of the Boston Celtics. With Avery Bradley off the court the last two games, Green has hit 5x value in both games as he has put up 18+ FanDuel points in each contest. If Bradley is out tonight, Green is a great GPP punt play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James ($10,100) Assuming the King suits up again tonight on the tail end of a back to back, he will be a core play of mine within a Cleveland-Portland game stack! As I mentioned, this game went bonkers earlier in the season and not surprising, James was at the forefront of that output!
In that game, LeBron put up 31 points, 13 assists, 10 rebounds and 65.5 FanDuel points and considering that Portland is ranked 27th in DvP to opposing SF’s, this is a spot that LeBron could go nuts in again. Although I love Harden on this slate, I believe James has the ability to get the same fantasy point production for $2k less in salary!
Aaron Gordon ($4,600) So the Portland-Cleveland stack may seem a bit obvious, but you are probably wondering why I am looking to stack three players from a Magic team that is projected to score the fewest points on the slate!
For me it all comes down to value pricing and the increased usage/production that comes with injuries. With Ibaka/Payton of the floor, Gordon sees a 5% usage increase and averages .81 fantasy points per minute.
Gordon would need 27 FanDuel points to hit 6x value at this price, which assuming his FP/M stays the same would mean he would need to play 34 minutes in this contest. Without Ibaka, I expect Gordon to get more run than he usually does and considering the Clippers are 24th in DvP to opposing SF’s, this is an interesting GPP play!
UPDATE: With Zach LaVine doubtful for tonight, look to pivot towards Andrew Wiggins ($6,300) tonight. With LaVine off the floor, Wiggins sees a massive 7% usage increase and averages .24 fantasy points per minute extra. Assuming Wiggins plays 35 minutes, that equates to an extra 9 FanDuel points tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Kevin Love ($8,100) No team gives up more fantasy points to opposing PF’s than Portland does this season, and not surprisingly this is a match-up that Kevin Love destroyed in their first game this season!
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In that game, Love put up 40 points, 8 rebounds and 57.1 FanDuel points and at this price point has one of the highest ceilings for a player under $10k. Assuming Love plays, he is a core play for me and would be an absolute must if either LeBron or Kyrie Irving sit out.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,600) One of the benefits of studying DFS each day, is you tend to uncover fantasy production that may not be covered yet across the industry. Aminu is a player that frankly I had overlooked most nights, but looking at his game logs it may be time to reverse that trend!
In his last four games, Aminu is averaging 33.5 minutes per game and 31.5 FanDuel points per game which is nearly 7x value at this price point. The match-up against Cleveland is not a great one, but Aminu allows us cheap exposure as part of a game stack here and comes into this game in exceptional form.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500) Paying up at center tonight looks to be my preferred early strategy on this slate and I am happy to lock in the best big man on the night in Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns.
Towns gets an ideal match-up against a Rockets team he bullied for 41 points, 16 rebounds and 63.7 FanDuel points when they met a few weeks back. The Rockets simply have no answer for Towns inside and I love the idea of pairing him with the Cleveland-Portland stack which allows us to fit in 4 high-end stars in our roster!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates.