FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 13
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 72 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Friday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Ricky Rubio ($6,200) What if I told you that you could roster a guard for just over $6k that is averaging 44 FanDuel points in his last two games and get you over 7x value for your GPP lineups? Interested? What if I told you that player was….Ricky Rubio! Ok maybe not as interested?
Listen, I get it – I very rarely roster Rubio as his lack of scoring typically caps his upside but his ability to rack up peripheral stats makes him an excellent GPP play. In the last two games, Rubio has averaged 16 assists and 3 steals per game and tonight he takes on Russell Westbrook and the Thunder who are 23rd in DvP to opposing PG’s.
This game is without a spread/total as we await news of Zach LaVine who is questionable with a hop injury, but without LaVine on the floor, Rubio puts up a fantasy point per minute which gives him a relatively safe 5x floor in this spot with significant upside!
Malcolm Brogdon (5,300) For a starting point, FanDuel has been very slow to react to the price for Malcolm Brogdon as the talented rookie has been DFS gold for us so far this season. Brodgon has now hit 6x value in three of his last four games and tonight gets to take on Goran Dragic who has one of the worst individual defensive ratings at PG.
As the starting PG for the Bucks, Brogdon is averaging over 14 points per game with 6 assists and 5 rebounds which gives him the kind of well-rounded fantasy game we typically target in DFS. This looks like a slate where I am going to stick with a balanced roster construction and when I do that I am typically looking for 30-35 FanDuel point performers which is exactly where Brogdon has landed in his recent games.
FanDuel NBA Top Shooting Guard Picks
Dion Waiters ($4,900) The shooting guard position as usual on FanDuel is incredibly top-heavy with Harden/Giannis and the mid-tier is littered with injury questions so we may need to dive for value in this spot tonight!
Waiters entered the starting lineup at small forward in his last game and his minutes restriction was finally lifted. Waiters responded by playing 38 minutes and putting up 28.8 FanDuel points which would exceed 5.8x value at this price point.
The Heat are taking on a Bucks team that is giving up the second most points to opposing SF’s on the season and with the Heat still short-handed on the wing, look for Waiters to continue to log major minutes tonight!
Brandon Rush ($4,000) This pick hinges 100% on Zach LaVine, but if LaVine were to miss this game tonight against OKC, we would almost have to look towards Rush tonight. Last game out, most expected Kris Dunn or Shabazz Muhammed to jump into the starting lineup with LaVine out, but it was Rush who got the call and frankly it was a non-event for me as I built my rosters.
Rush went out against Houston, played 36 minutes and racked up 30 FanDuel points! I never like to be the one to chase games like that, but we have to take notice when players capitalize on opportunities like that and if LaVine is ruled out again, we could look to Rush again tonight for some solid value!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James ($9,900) Looking over this slate, the Cavs come into tonight with the third highest projected team total against the Kings and I was surprised to see only a 6.5 point spread on this game. The spread feels too close if the Cavs are at full strength so it could be a spot where they rest someone but the fact that this spread is out so early makes me believe the Cavs will play everyone – no way to know, but something to keep an eye on.
The King is in an elite spot tonight as he takes on a Sacramento team that is ranked 25th in DvP to opposing SF’s. Last season, James averaged over 46 FanDuel points in two meetings with the Kings and with his price point under $10k, he allows you exposure to an elite level superstar with 50+ point upside without having to make an inflated salary committment.
Andrew Wiggins ($6,800) With Zach LaVine off the court, no player on Minnesota sees a bigger fantasy boost than Andrew Wiggins. In that scenario, Wiggins sees his usage increase to 36.4% which is a 6.6% increase over his season average. With LaVine off the court, Wiggins averages 1.05 fantasy points per minute which is a 22% increase over his season long totals.
To put it another way, with LaVine off the court – Wiggins gets an additional 8 fantasy points per game assuming he plays 35 minutes. Wiggins was able to put up 35 FanDuel points the last game out with LaVine off the floor and I would expect a similar output with 40+ point upside in this spot against OKC.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Paul Millsap ($8,100) The subject of constant trade rumors, Millsap and the Hawks get to take on the Celtics tonight and this is a great spot to target the super consistent Millsap.
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The Celtics are ranked 25th in DvP to opposing PF’s and Millsap comes into this game with 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last seven games. Millsap is always an elite cash game target and he makes for a great GPP play tonight as he will likely be overlooked and has an elite match-up.
Kevin Love ($7,700) Heading back to Cleveland, I am looking to build a mini-stack off of LeBron with Kevin Love who gets to face a Kings team that is ranked 21st in DvP to opposing PF’s this season.
Love us coming off a disappointing game his last time out in an elite spot against Portland so many owners will be hesitant to go back to him here which may lead him to be under-owned. Love and Millsap are great bets to put up 35-40 FanDuel points tonight and make for a great compliment within a balanced roster construction!
Nikola Vucevic ($7,000) Vuc took over the starting Center gig for the Magic in his last game and responded with a 40 FanDuel point double-double. Tonight he gets to take on a Portland team that is ranked 28th in DvP to opposing Centers. At this price point, Vooch seems a near lock for 5x value with 6x upside due to Portland’s inability to stop opposing big men!
Best of luck in tonight’s FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR Twitter throughout the day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!