FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 16
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 74 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.5 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Monday’s Early FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 1:00PM EST with five games on the early slate and another 4 games on the 7:30 late slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks (EARLY)
Damian Lillard ($8,400) The Portland-Washington game has the highest combined team total (220) on the slate and a 3.5 Vegas spread so this is a spot we want to ensure we have exposure to.
With a $1.1k price difference, it makes sense from a point per dollar perspective to pivot off John Wall and take the salary savings here with Lillard. Since returning from injury, Lillard has two 40+ FanDuel point outings in his last five games and dropped 60+ FanDuel points in his final meeting with Washington last season.
Elfrid Payton ($6,000) If you rostered Elf on Saturday night, you likely were well on your way to cashing out as Payton went absolutely bonkers in a tough match-up against the Jazz as he nearly triple-doubled with 28/9/9 for 57+ FanDuel points.
The spot tonight is entirely too juicy to pass up as the Magic take on a Nuggets team that is giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing PG’s. From a roster construction perspective, I love the idea of pairing Payton with either LIllard/Wall and targeting the immense GPP upside from this PG duo.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks (EARLY)
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,300) The Greek Freak versus The Process! This one is going to be fun!
If there is one superstar I am looking to pay up for on this slate, it is without a doubt Giannis Antetokounmpo as his ability to dominate across categories for just over $10k allows us to roster a player with immense upside for a reasonable price.
Giannis comes into this game with at least 40 FD points in 15 of his last 16 games (not including a 9 minute injury game against the Spurs) and has eight 50+ performances in that span. Although the Sixers have improved this season, they are also 21st in fantasy points per game allowed so I expect Giannis to rack up fantasy points today!
Allen Crabbe ($4,200) On short slates like this, it is critical for us to find value and Crabbe may be my favorite value play on the board. With Maurice Harkless unlikely to suit up, Crabbe should again slide into the starting lineup at SF for Portland.
First, the Wizards can be exploited from a fantasy perspective at the wing spots, ranking 18th in DvP against opposing SG’s. Secondly, this game as I mentioned has the highest combined team total on the early slate and lastly, Crabbe should see extended run with Harkless off the floor.
Crabbe has played 30+ minutes in three of his last four contests and has exceed 7.5x value in two of those four games so the GPP upside is very real in this spot. If you need a salary saver, fire up Crabbe today!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks (EARLY)
Carmelo Anthony ($8,100) With Kristaps Porzingis doubtful for today’s game against Atlanta, this is a prime spot for Carmelo to shine and at only $8k we can get a 50+ point outing from a superstar at a reasonable price!
With Porzingis off the floor this season, Melo sees nearly a 5% usage increase and leads the team with a massive 36.2% usage rate while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Assuming Melo gets 35 minutes in this game, we are looking at 42+ FanDuel points and I upside for more in a game that should see a slight pace increase for the Knicks.
Robert Covington ($5,300) In this Bucks-Sixers match-up, we want to make sure we have a correlation play against Giannis and although I love the idea of locking in Embiid, his $8k price makes it difficult to pay up for a Lillard/Melo/Giannis combo so I will look to drop down at SF and get my Sixers exposure with GPP favorite, Robert Covington.
The Bucks are giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing SF’s on the season so this is a great spot to attack the weakest link on the Bucks and get exposure to one of the most entertaining games on the slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks (EARLY)
Terrence Jones ($5,200) The PF spot on this early slate is one I intend to drop down in terms of salary and I love the upside that Terrence Jones has for the Pelicans. With Anthony Davis back last game, Alvin Gentry chose to stick with Jones in the starting lineup and he responded with 34 minutes and 27 FD points.
The match-up tonight against the Pacers is ideal as they rank 26th in DvP to opposing PF’s. Jones has always been an elite fantasy producer when given the minutes and will be a great DFS play for as long as he stays in the starting lineup!
Markieff Morris ($5,600) If you read Picks and Pivots each day, you will know I am a heavier GPP player and rarely play cash games, as a result I am always looking for upside. If you are a GPP player you likely to have utilized Kieff before and you either love him or hate him based on his volatile nature.
Heading back to Portland-Washington, we know that the best way to attack Portland is in the front court as they rank 28th in DvP to opposing PF’s on the season. Morris has actually been a steady contributor recently as he is averaging over 16 points and 8 rebounds in his last four games and has 30+FanDuel points in three of his last four!
Myles Turner ($6,800) I expect Joel Embiid to be the chalk center play on this slate and although I love the idea of playing him, I think this is the best place to differentiate your lineup from a GPP perspective.
Turner takes on a Pelicans team that he racked up 26 points, 8 rebounds and 40 FanDuel points against earlier this season. I understand the love for The Process but he has not topped 42 FanDuel points since 12/18 so if we can differentiate our lineup at center and get a similar 40 point outing, we may be able to get a jump on the rest of the field!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks (Late)
Kyrie Irving ($8,000) Let’s break this down nice and easy – if you are playing the late slate you are essentially playing Warriors versus Cavaliers. This is the marquee game of the day and is a rematch of a thrilling Christmas Day contest that saw the Cavs walk away last second winners.
The Cavs-Warriors game has a massive 224 combined team total and will be a requirement exposure wise if you want to compete on this slate. Kyrie Irving at only $8k feels like a no brainer considering he dropped 59.2 FanDuel points against the Warriors last time out!
The price point will make him a a very chalky option but I expect the pride of West Orange, NJ toi show up again big time tonight!
Austin Rivers ($4,200) If you want maximum exposure to the GS/CLE game, you will need to find value at other spots and I love the fact I can target a starting player who is locked into major minutes for a bargain price here.
Rivers continues to start for the Clippers as they go with a three guard lineup, and has played 30+ minutes in each of his last six games.
I came across an amazing stat from the guys at Statmuse – Since January 1st only six guards in the NBA are averaging 37 minutes, 17 points and 4 assists and one of them is Austin Rivers! The other names on that list – Kyle Lowry, CJ McCollum, Jimmy Butler, James Harden and John Wall. Let that sink in!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks (LATE)
Victor Oladipo ($5,700) Oladipo may not be the biggest upside play at SG but his sub $6k price point allows you the salary flexibility we need, while locking in a player with significant minutes and steady production.
Oladipo is averaging 27 FanDuel points per game which is right at 5x value with his current price point. We haven’t yet seen 6x upside for Oladipo so I would not go out of my way to target him in GPP play, but rostering him allows you to lock in a steady 5x floor and build your upside in other spots on your roster!
Iman Shumpert ($3,600) Shump is a great way to get a starting player from this game at a near minimum price point as he has been inserted into the starting SG spot for the Cavs.
In his first start against the Kings, Shumpert put up 20 FanDuel points in 26 minutes which would exceed 5.5x value at this price point. By rostering Oladipo/Shumpert we are looking to get a safe 5x floor and utilizing the salary savings for the next position.
FanDuel NBA – Top Forward/Center Picks (LATE)
SF – Kevin Durant ($10,000)/ LeBron James ($9,900) This one does not need much of an explanation, but on this slate I am doing everything I can to lock in both top SF’s in the game of the night.
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The last time these two played against each other, both players excelled and they are the two must-plays if you want exposure to this game.
Durant was a monster in that game as he racked up 36 points, 15 rebounds and 62 FanDuel points while LeBron put up 31 points, 13 rebounds and 51 FanDuel points. Do not get cute on this slate – lock both players in and move on!
PF – Enes Kanter ($6,200) Kanter is on an absolute tear recently as he now has exceeded 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last four games and has hit 6x value in three of those four!
Without Blake Griffin inside, Kanter should be able to exploit the Clippers tonight and we only need to look back a few weeks when he dropped 35 FanDuel points against this same LA team!
PF – Derrick Favors ($4,700) Favors minutes continue to trend up as he has now played over 30 minutes in two of his last five games and tonight gets an elite match-up against a Suns team that is ranked 20th in DvP to opposing PF. The last time these two teams squared off, Favors logged 23 points in 24 minutes so if we can get extended minutes here, we could be looking at 30+ FanDuel points!
C – Al Horford ($7,300) The Celtics-Hornets game will likely get overlooked on this slate but I love the idea of targeting Horford here. In the last meeting between these two, Horford dropped 47 FD points and is a sneaky 50 point target on this slate.
Best of luck today in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR all day for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!