FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – January 18
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 76 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Wednesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Elfrid Payton ($6,200) With Russell Westbrook on the slate going against Kevin Durant and the Warriors, I think the popular strategy will be to cram Westbrook/Durant into lineups and that will likely leave the mid-tier of point guards largely overlooked on this slate.
Payton and the Magic get a great match-up against the Pelicans and this is a game I believe we can target aggressively tonight! The Pelicans are 28th in DvP to opposing PG’s on the season and Payton comes into this game with 33+ FanDuel points in each of his last three games while topping 6x value in two of those three contests.
Sergio Rodriguez ($4,100) One of the reasons we can pay up for the plethora of stars on this slate tonight is that we already have some pretty nice value options opening up early in the day. T.J. McConnell is questionable for tonight’s game and although he has said he wants to play, the team is still saying it is unlikely.
If McConnell is out tonight, Rodriguez will get all the minutes at PG for the Sixers as they take on the Raptors. Although the match-up itself is not ideal, the price point here is too good to pass up and Rodriguez has already shown he has the ability to contribute against the Raptors this season.
In their previous match-up this season, S-Rod racked up 23.7 FanDuel points in 29 minutes which would exceed 5.8x value and if he can replicate that performance, would put us in a great position to maximize value while saving salary!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($11,800) I expect most people will look to spend up on the OKC/GS game but do not overlook the Houston-Milwaukee game which has the same combined team total of 227 and a closer Vegas spread (only 7 points). With so many people opting to pay up for Westbrook, this may lead Harden to be over-looked and I want as much exposure as I can get to him tonight.
With Ryan Anderson unlikely to play again tonight due to the flu, Harden should continue to dominate the usage for the Rockets. Amazingly, with Anderson off the floor this year, Harden actually sees his usage increase 4% to a massive 40% usage rate while averaging 1.6 fantasy points per minute.
Harden posted another triple double on Tuesday night and shot the ball a whopping 30 times! With so many eyes on OKC-GS, this game may be overlooked by DFS players but it may end up being the best place to target players tonight!
Jodie Meeks ($3,800) With Evan Fournier questionable/unlikely to play tonight, fire up Meeks again as an elite value play on this slate. Meeks entered the starting lineup two games ago with Fournier sidelined and has averaged 36 minutes and over 21 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 5.7x value at this price point. If you are looking to pay up on this slate for other stars, Meeks is a great way to get exposure while still locking in guaranteed minutes.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kevin Durant ($10,400) I may not plan to roster Russell Westbrook tonight, but that does not mean I plan to ignore the battle between Westbrook/KD entirely! From a point per dollar perspective, I actually think Durant may be the better play here!
In their first meeting this season, Durant put up 39 points, 7 rebounds and nearly 50 FanDuel points and with small forward looking like a tough position to fill on this slate, I love the safety he provides.
Do not overlook the fact that Steven Adams will be out for this game which should really open up things inside for the Warriors! If you are looking for a pivot off Durant but still want Warriors exposure, Zaza Pachulia dropped 36.5 FanDuel points against OKC earlier this year and as I mentioned, will not have to deal with Adams inside!
Jerami Grant ($3,600) With Adams out, most (including me), expected Enes Kanter to join the starting lineup but it was actually Grant who got the call and responded with 34 minutes of action and 24 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.6x value at this price point. If you are looking for value to lock in the big guys tonight, Grant makes for a great play and gives you additional exposure to this game!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Terrence Jones ($5,300) With Anthony Davis likely out tonight due to his hip injury, we should fire up Jones in all formats as he will see a significant uptick in usage with AD off the floor! With Nikola Vucevic back in the middle for the Magic, they have been routinely giving up big games to opposing big men and Jones has now eclipsed 30 FanDuel points in two of his last three games.
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With The Brow off the floor, Jones is a fantasy point per minute producer, so if we can get confirmation that he will be in the starting lineup tonight, he looks like a lock for 30+ FanDuel points!
Jabari Parker ($7,500) We are going to want some correlation exposure to our Harden play from the Bucks side and although we always love Giannis, this may be a better spot to lock in Parker tonight. The Rockets are giving up the second most fantasy points to opposing PF this season and Parker comes into this game with 33+ FanDuel points in each of his last six games!
Al Horford ($7,300)/Nikola Vucevic ($7,200) The Center position is a great spot to target the mid-range tonight and I plan utilize Horford and Vucevic in my lineups tonight at similar price points.
Horford gets ones of the best DVP match-ups on the board as he takes on a Knicks team that is 29th in DvP to opposing centers and is a spot that Horford already dropped 40 FanDuel points earlier this season.
Vooch has regained the starting gig at Center and there is some signficiant injury news that could set him up for a big fantasy night/ With Anthony Davis out, the Pelicans will be much easier to attack inside and with the news that Bismack Biyombo is questionable for tonight, Vucevic could get massive minutes tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tune to Fantasy CPR throughout the day on Twitter for all the late breaking news and roster updates!