Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 76 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 372.6 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Eric Bledsoe ($8,000) Looking over this five game slate, we have two games with 221 combined team totals with equal blow out risk with the Spurs-Nuggets and Suns-Cavs however without many other legit pivot options, we may need dig into these games and absorb the risk!
The Suns back-court is one spot where I think we can look to get exposure on this slate as they were able to put up big time fantasy numbers in this same match-up 10 days ago. In his last game against the Cavs, Bledsoe dropped 31 points, 8 assists and 48.4 FanDuel points and is coming off a 55 FD point gem against the Jazz.
The Cavs are ranked 22nd in DvP against opposing PG’s and Kyrie Irving has one of the worst defensive ratings of any PG on this slate! Bledsoe’s price is simply too cheap relative to his upside and considering he has excelled in tough match-ups here recently, we should feel confident firing him up again tonight!
Derrick Rose ($6,200) The Knicks-Wizards game is one of my favorite to target on this slate as they combined for 231 points in their lone match-up earlier this season. Tonight they have a 213 combined team total and both teams are projected to score more points than their season average and see an uptick in pace and with a 1.5 point spread, this is the best game to target from a stacking perspective.
In their match-up earlier this season, Rose notched 35.4 FanDuel points and has now eclipsed 33 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. On Wednesday night, Rose had one of his best games of the season as he racked up 30 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists and 53.5 FanDuel points!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Bradley Beal ($7,200) No team on the slate gives up more fantasy points to opposing SG’s than the Knicks who are ranked 29th in DvP to opposing SG’s this season. The price on Beal has spike over $7k which is a bit higher than we would pay on a larger slate, but on this five game slate, SG is tough to pin down so I am fine locking in a player who has the best DvP match-up and can be a part of a Wizards-Knicks game stack.
Beal would need 43+ FanDuel points to hit 6x value, a target he has only reached one time in his last eight games and even at 5x, has only hit that number three of his last eight games. Beal put up 26.9 FanDuel points against the Knicks earlier this season but at this price point we are going to need significantly more than that! Beal is a great GPP flier but keep an eye on the news today as if we see Beal as a popular target, he may be a great strategic fade at over $7k!
Devin Booker ($6,400) The Cavs have struggled all season against opposing SG’s, ranking 26th in DvP to the position and Booker lit them up for 42 FanDuel points in their meeting 10 day ago!
Booker has three 40+ FanDuel point outings (ok I am including a 39.7 point game in that) in his last four games and at this price point is the clear top SG target on this slate against the Cavs.
If you are looking for a pivot play, Will Barton ($5,300) should continue to get major run for the Nuggets with Gary Harris already ruled out! Although the match-up with the Spurs is not one we typically look to target, San Antonio is ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing SG’s, so there is merit to attacking them in this spot especially with Barton looking like a lock for 30+ minutes with Harris and Wilson Chandler already ruled out!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
LeBron James (10,500) If you are looking to stack Bledsoe/Booker from the Phoenix side then we are going to need to get exposure to the Cleveland side of this game. Keep an eye on the news as Kevin Love is questionable for this game and if he were to sit, it would make Kyrie Irving and LeBron James must plays as their usage gets a significant spike with Love off the floor!
The Cavs have the second highest team total on the slate and see the largest pace increase of any team in action! James has not topped 40 FanDuel points in three straight games so you have to wonder if he will be under-owned tonight as a result. If Love plays, I could see the merit in fading him and using this salary on a player like John Wall, but if Love is out, just lock in King James!
Mindaugas Kuzminskas ($3,900) Honestly, locking in any Knicks player makes me nervous as I was all in on the Kyle O’Quinn train on Wednesday night only to watch as he sat on the bench while my teams fell further behind the cash line!
The one player we have to take notice of though is Kuz, who has now put up back to back 26 point games as the starting SF for the Knicks as Kristaps Porzingis has been out with an injury. At this price point, Kuz is crushing over 6.6x value as the starter and if KP is out again tonight, he becomes a must play!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Gorgui Dieng ($5,700) Power forward may be the weakest position on the slate tonight with so many of the top end targets injured, so I will look to the mid-tier when completing my roster construction.
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The Clippers are now down both Blake Griffin AND Chris Paul, so they become a team we can look to exploit and Dieng comes into this game with back to back 32 FanDuel point performances against tough defenses in San Antonio and Dallas.
Markieff Morris ($6,100) Remember when we could target Kieff at under $5k? Well the man’s recent production has pushed his price point up over $6k but I believe this is a spot we should still target Morris!
Morris now has eclipsed 30+ FanDuel points in five of his last six game which (gasp) makes him a safe cash game play but his match-up against the Knicks gives him tremendous GPP upside! The Knicks are ranked 26th in DvP to opposing PF’s this season and Morris is a great way to get additional exposure to the Wizards here!
Marcin Gortat ($5,800) As you can tell, I think all five Wizards starters are firmly in play on this slate and Gortat is a great mid-range target who should be able to get you around 30 FanDuel points tonight. In this match-up earlier this season, Gortat was able to rack up 16 points, 8 rebounds and 28.1 FanDuel points. With Joakim Noah nursing an injury, Gortat should be able to exploit the interior of the Knicks defense tonight!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!