FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 3
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 86 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 373.7 a night which means we have needed 6.2x value to win big!
Friday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with nine games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Jeff Teague (7,600) Welcome to an absolutely loaded 9 game Friday night slate in the NBA! Slates of this size are typically my favorite GPP slates as we have enough games to choose from that allow for enough variation in roster construction without being overwhelming.
The Pacers are one of my favorite teams to target on this slate as they get the best match-up in basketball, a date with the Brooklyn Nets. The Pacers have the third highest team total on the slate while seeing the largest pace increase of any team and expected to score over 8 points higher than their season average(again the highest mark on the slate).
The Nets are dead last against opposing PG’s on the season and Teague was able to rack up 33 FD points in only 24 minutes in their earlier game this season. Vegas expects this game to stay close (7 point spread) so I am fine stacking the Pacers in this spot. Teague has hit 6x value (45.6 FD points) in two of his last four games so the upside is clear for GPP’s and his price point is safe enough for cash games.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,100) Enjoy the price tag while it lasts because this is the last time we will see it at $6k for a while! Russell returned from injury and has dropped back to back 40+ FanDuel point outings for the Lakers.
Tonight, Russell gets to face off against Isaiah Thomas who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG in the NBA and with Russell locked into 30+ minutes, I see no reason to fade him at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900) The Greek Freak has been sputtering of late, failing to top 50 FanDuel points in each of his last seven games which is what we need at this price point, but the match-up tonight is one where I think he can bounce back in a major way!
We do not yet have a spread or total for this game as we await news on Nikola Jokic (which is huge in its own right) but we do know the Bucks will see a solid pace uptick against the Nuggets tonight. The Nuggets are ranked 29th against opposing PG’s and 30th against opposing SG’s so this is the perfect place for Giannis to bounce back and I am with our writer Bruce Lamb, who thinks Giannis is the top player to pay up for on this slate!
Wesley Matthews ($5,400) Much of the attention in the Dallas back-court lately has been focused on Yogi Ferrell and Seth Curry however their prices have risen to a place I am not comfortable paying and instead will opt to lock in Wesley Matthews tonight against Portland.
Matthews returned from injury three games ago and since then has logged 30+ minutes in each of those games and has double-digit shot attempts in two of the three contests. Matthews has put up 5x value in two of the three games since returning and gets to face a Portland team that is 23rd in DvP to opposing SF’s. I expect most will look to roster players like Curry/Yogi if they are looking at Dallas so Matthews makes for a nice GPP pivot with similar 6x upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Jimmy Butler ($9,400) The Bulls-Rockets have the highest combined team total on this slate and the Bulls see a signficant pace increase while expected to score 7 points more than their season average. Houston is ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SF’s so this is an ideal spot to fire up Jimmy Butler who comes into this game with 50+ FanDuel points in two of his last four games!
The Rockets also are on the tail end of a back to back after a Thursday night game with the Hawks while the Bulls were idle so I expect Butler to be able to attack Houston early and often and with SF being an overall ugly position on this slate, I think paying up for the Bulls star is the best use of our salary tonight!
Wilson Chandler ($6,300) This pick is semi-injury dependent as the Nuggets have already ruled out Danillo Gallinari and Nikola Jokic/Will Barton are questionable which should leave Chandler as the last man standing! With all those players off the floor this season, Chandler sees a team leading 5% usage increase and leads the Nuggets starters with a 28.9% usage rate while putting up 1.23 fantasy points per minute.
Add in the fact that Milwaukee is ranked 29th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season and we can easily project a 40-50 FD point outing for Chandler here as he is one of the top mid-range plays on this slate and will be a core play for me assuming the Nuggets injury news holds!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Marquese Chriss ($3,800) and Thon Maker ($3,700) So far on this slate I have opted to pay up in most of my positions so where do I intend to find value? With Jokic unlikely for tonight, the PF position is one I think we can look to punt, and I will look to employ two sub $4k options with enticing upside.
More from FanSided
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- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
Chriss has been a fringe DFS player for the majority of the year as his starting role as the PF for the Suns always puts him in play but his performance has not really caught up to his potential. Over the last two games however, Chriss has put up 24.5 and 30 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.4x value at this price point. Perhaps the most interesting statistic is that Chriss has put up 15 and 12 shot attempts while playing over 30 minutes/night in his last two games so his role looks to be expanding. This is a great spot to jump on before the masses do and with Tyson Chandler busy guarding Boogie Cousins, Chriss should have room to roam tonight!
Maker has started the last two games for the Bucks with mixed results, but his last game was clearly his best as he notched 24 minutes and put up 26 FD points against the Jazz. If the Nuggets are without Jokic/Gallinari inside, this is a great place for us to attack them with Maker who I expect will go widely overlooked and we have another 6x+ value play that allows us massive roster flexibility!
UPDATE: Nikola Jokic is ruled IN and will have a “not stringent minutes limit.” – I absolutely love Jokic in GPP’s tonight as most will avoid him on a minutes limit but you may be able to get a 60+ point game from a stud for under 5% ownership!
Myles Turner ($6,700) Heading back to Indiana, Turner continues to be a great mid-range Center option for GPP’s and tonight he takes on a Nets team that he has already put up 30+ FD points against in their two early season match-ups. Turner is a safe cash game play but has flashed 40-50 point upside throughout the season and I am happy to slot him in tonight in all formats!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!