DraftKings NBA Picks for February 4
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks for February 4
We are up to ten games for the main DraftKings tournaments tonight. That means many teams are playing in the second night of a back to back. Watch for sitting players! Hopefully we will have a list early in the day so we have plenty of time to make changes.
Don’t forget to follow @fantasycpr on Twitter for lineup updates as we get them leading to the tipoffs of the games! I am not always able to get back in here and fix my picks when someone sits for the night, but we will update it on Twitter. There was a flurry of inactives yesterday, and many lineup changes, so make sure you check in with our updates!
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Most of my picks end up being a little on the conservative side, so these lineups may be better suited for cash games, though I usually play both types.
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Point Guards
Best Bets:
John Wall ($10,200): Look, Giannis Antetokuonmpo is a freak of an athlete and one of the most versatile players in the league, but he is terrible for DFS. His price is so high that he hasn’t hit 5x value since January 18th, and he may never hit 6x value. Wall is 50% at hitting 5x value in his last ten games and has topped 6x twice while not going under 4x. Wall is a safer pick even though the Pelicans are doing a better job on the perimeter.
Stephen Curry ($9,600): Curry has racked up 191.25 DraftKings points in his last three games. He is on fire right now, and playing a Sacramento team that he picked up 48.5 DraftKings points on the first time around. There is blowout potential, which is a bit concerning, but who else is this hot right now? Especially for under $10K?
Honorable Mention:
Jrue Holiday ($7,400): It feels like stealing to play Holiday at this price. He is averaging 50.5 DraftKings points over the last six games, and that includes games against San Antonio, Detroit, Oklahoma City, and tonight’s opponent, the Wizards. Holiday put up 52 on those Wizards. I’m looking forward to another bucket-fest between him and Wall.
Elfrid Payton ($6,000): Payton is not the most consistent point guard around, but he has treated the Hawks like the D-League this year. Payton has 92.75 DraftKings points in two games against Atlanta this year. He has also been over 35 DraftKings points in seven of his last 11 games. Three of those four games that he wasn’t were against top eight point guard defenses. He is safe to use against teams that don’t defend the point well.
Brandon Jennings ($6,000): Derrick Rose is officially listed as questionable, but considering he barely practiced yesterday, I doubt he plays. That leaves Jennings with his fourth straight start. He has averaged 38.1 DraftKings points in his three starts in place of Rose. That leaves him right around 6x value.
Dark Horses:
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($5,100): Hardaway hit 6x value in points alone on Thursday night against the Rockets. Thabo Sefalosha still has a sore groin, but if he is able to play, it significantly decreases Hardaway’s value. That said, Hardaway’s hot shooting game on Thursday may have earned him extra minutes regardless of Sefalosha’s status.
Tony Parker ($4,000): Parker’s numbers are nothing to write home about most of the time, but in the first game against Denver, he carved them up. Just like most of Denver’s opponents have. Be it Jameer Nelson or Emmanuel Mudiay, it hasn’t mattered. Denver has given up the most fantasy points to point guards this year. Exhibit A is Parker’s 38.25 DraftKings points on them in just 23 minutes in the first meeting.
My pick: Holiday(PG), Payton(G); Payton(PG), Jennings(G), Parker(UTIL)
Shooting Guards
Best Bets:
Bradley Beal ($6,900): Beal has put up between 38 and 39 DraftKings points in each of his last three games. For good measure, he put up 39 in the first game against the Pelicans. So you are essentially paying $6,900 for 39 points. That is a shade below 6x value.
Dion Waiters ($6,900): Waiters has averaged 39.8 DraftKings points over the last seven games. He has become one of the most consistent contributors on a team in desperate need of them. Waiters has filled in nicely for Justise Winslow, and is showing no signs of losing minutes anytime soon. It also doesn’t hurt that he put up 33.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting against the Sixers. That would leave him close to 5x value if he can do it again.
Devin Booker ($6,600): Booker doesn’t have a great matchup against the Bucks, but you can’t argue with his consistent play of late. Booker has had nine straight games between 33 and 39 DraftKings points. He has had a couple of tougher opponents in that streak as well. Normally I wouldn’t consider him against the Bucks, but with the way he is scoring an passing lately, I could see him hit 30 again.
Honorable Mention:
Klay Thompson ($6,900): Thompson is far from consistent, but two years ago he set a NBA record with 37 points in a quarter against, you guessed it, the Sacramento Kings. He only put up 26.5 DraftKings points on them in the first meeting this year, but if you want to throw a dart, there is history here. It just isn’t all that recent.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($5,900): KCP is capable of huge games like his 55.5 DraftKings point explosion against the Pelicans on Wednesday. He is also capable of absolutely horrible games like his 8.5 DraftKings point stink bomb against Miami on Saturday. That’s right, both extremes in a matter of days. He is always risky, but he has a nice matchup against a Pacers team that has given up 65 DraftKings points to him in two games this year. How brave are you?
Zach LaVine ($5,800): LaVine finally hit 5x value last night after horrid outings against Cleveland and Orlando. He has scored 105 DraftKings points in three meetings with Memphis this year, so he should be safe to unleash against the Grizzlies to snag you 6x value, provided the knee contusion he suffered last night isn’t a lingering problem. If LaVine sits, you absolutely want Brandon Rush for $3,000.
Dark Horses:
Matthew Dellavedova ($4,000): Dellavedova played seven more minutes than Brodgon last night, and it $600 cheaper. He has a better chance of reaching value. Honestly, they are both good plays against the up-tempo Suns, but I give Dellavedova the slight edge because he has played a little more than Brogdon lately, and he is the better passer.
Ben McLemore ($3,000): McLemore picked up a cool 8x value last night starting for Arron Afflalo. If Afflalo sits again, McLemore could be a great pick once again. The Warriors do have a habit of giving spot shooters trouble though. Rush is a better pick if he starts.
My pick: Brogdon(SG); Dellavedova(SG)
Small Forwards
Best Bets:
LeBron James ($10,500): James has abused the Knicks this year. That shouldn’t surprise anyone. The only moderate surprised is that he hit 5x value in both games despite playing about eight minutes less than his normal workload. I don’t worry as much about the blowout factor here. If it is a blowout, the King will be a big reason why.
Kevin Durant ($10,100): Durant beat up the Kings to the tune of 56.25 DraftKings points in the first meeting. That was when the Kings had Rudy Gay. They barely have a serviceable SF now, let alone anyone that can guard Durant. This could get very ugly for the Kings, but not if you use Durant!
Honorable Mention:
Kawhi Leonard ($9,300): Leonard is averaging a hair over 5x value over his last ten games. He has stepped up his scoring without Pau Gasol in there. For those of you worried about the blowout factor, the Nuggets are scoring a bunch of points lately. And even if he does get out of hand, Leonard still put up 42.5 DraftKings points in just 25 minutes against Philadelphia on Thursday. He is a relatively safe option.
Paul George ($8,100): If the Pistons have a weakness on defense, it’s at small forward. And they are still in the top half of the league. That said, George has put up 91.25 DraftKIngs points in two games against the Pistons. He was on a roll before going cold against Orlando on Wednesday. If he has his stroke back, he could have another good game against Detroit.
Gordon Hayward ($7,300): Hayward torched Charlotte for 47.25 DraftKings points in their first meeting. We have seen Hayward have good games when the matchup is right. Hayward even put up 46 DraftKings points on the Bucks on Wednesday. Things are lining up for another good game for Hayward.
Dark Horses:
Andre Iguodala ($4,700): Iguodala plays enough even when the game is not a blowout to reach his value on most nights. He put up 26.75 DraftKings points on Sacramento in the first meeting. If Draymond Green is out again tonight, Iggy could see a little more run like he did on Thursday. He is a solid 5x value most nights.
P.J. Tucker ($4,700): Hayward smoked the Bucks on Wednesday, and he is far from the only one to do so this year. Without Khris Middleton, they have had serious issues defending small forwards. Since Tucker is getting most of the minutes there, I give him the nod over T.J. Warren, but it is still a risk guessing which one will get more run. It has been Tucker lately.
Matt Barnes ($4,000): The Kings look to be without Garrett Temple, Rudy Gay, and Omri Casspi once again. That should mean another start for Barnes, who has averaged 25 DraftKings points per game with all three of them out. I will take that 6x value!
My Pick: Tucker(SF), Barnes(F); Leonard(SF), Hayward(F)
Power Forwards
Best Bets:
Kevin Love ($8,000): Word around Cleveland is that Love is likely to play, which is bad news for those of us that were going to sneak Channing Frye in again. Love has 81.25 DraftKings points in two games against the Knicks this year, so he can hit 5x value. The problem is that if this game gets out of hand, he will be the first to rest. However, DeMarcus Cousins struggled against the Warriors in their first meeting. He has been on fire, but he is in the second game of a back to back against a team that shut him down the first time. I don’t trust it.
Draymond Green ($7,900): Green’s stigma is the same as Love’s If this game gets out of hand, they will be the first ones sitting. Green also sat right at 5x value in the first game against the Kings. It is likely if the game stays close, but if it gets out of hand, all bets are off.
Honorable Mention:
Markieff Morris ($6,900): Morris has averaged 38.7 DraftKings points over the last ten games while not going under 31 points. That gives him a solid foundation, but he has only been over 40 DraftKings points twice in that span, so he doesn’t have a really high ceiling. He is a solid cash game anchor though.
Ersan Ilyasova ($6,500): Statistically, the Heat are strong against power forwards, but in games that Joel Embiid sits, Ilyasova has been more productive than Noel and Okafor in all but one game. He wont be highly owned, but he could still come up with 5x value or better. However, with his price up this high, it’s harder for him to get that difference-making point total in regards to his price.
James Johnson ($5,800): Johnson was not a big part of the Heat’s rotation in the first meeting against Philadelphia. He played only 17 minutes in that game. Now with Josh McRoberts out for the foreseeable future, Johnson has been playing a lot of minutes at power forward. He has 145.25 DraftKings points over the last four games. Even though he usually doesn’t start, his production is solid.
Dark Horses:
Gorgui Dieng ($5,100): In games in which Towns is up against a tough opponent, Dieng usually plays well. Like last night, for instance. Towns picked up his ninth straight double-double against Detroit, but he still didn’t hit 5x value in a statistically tough matchup. Dieng put up 31.5 DraftKings points in that one, and was 1.4% owned in the big tournament. He could have similar success tonight.
Jon Leuer ($4,000): Leuer progressed slowly in his first few games back from injury, but he had himself a 7x vlaue night against Minnesota last night. Tonight he gets a Pacers team that he put up 26.75 DraftKings points against in the first meeting. Leuer is a strong play tonight if you need to go cheap.
Davis Bertans ($3,800): Bertans was placed into the starting lineup on Thursday with LaMarcus Aldridge resting. He racked up 28 DraftKings points in that one. He should still see good run even if Aldridge returns tonight. He has averaged 20.2 DraftKings points per game with Pau Gasol on the shelf. That is right around 5x value.
My pick: Leuer(PF); Johnson(PF)
Center
Best Bets:
Anthony Davis ($10,400): Davis has played 122 minutes and racked up 184 DraftKings points over the last three games. That’s right…..three games. One of those was against tonight’s opponent, the Wizards. All he did in that game was put up 70.75 DraftKings points. If you can get 6x value from this price tag, you are winning some money. All aboard!
Nikola Jokic ($8,900): So, uh, Jokic is fine. He picked up his first career triple-double after missing three games with a sore hip flexor. Now he gets a Spurs team that he has put up 103.25 DraftKings points against in just two games. Assuming Denver doesn’t limit him in the back to back, he is a suitable alternative to Davis tonight.
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Honorable Mention:
Hassan Whiteside ($7,600): Whiteside racked up 52.25 DraftKings points in the first game against Philadelphia earlier this year, and that was when the Sixers had Joel Embiid. Whiteside has been a little slower going lately, but he reached 5x value on Wednesday for the first time since coming back from a sore knee. He should have no problem hitting that mark tonight.
Andre Drummond ($7,600): Drummond put up 80.75 DraftKings points in the first two games against Indiana this year. He has dominated teams that aren’t that tough in the middle. Expect another strong performance from Drummond. He is an interesting play at a stacked position tonight.
Dwight Howard ($7,200): Howard played like a man possessed against one former team on Thursday. Now he gets his first team, Orlando, tonight. Howard put up 77.75 DraftKings points in two games against the Magic this year. Don’t expect him to do what he did to Houston, but he should be above 5x value again.
Dark Horses:
Marcin Gortat ($6,100): So what if Anthony Davis owned Gortat all night in the first meeting? Gortat still picked up 36.25 DraftKings points, or 6x value, of his own. For those of you bargain shopping at a loaded position, Gortat looks to be a nice option.
Jahlil Okafor ($4,500): Right now I trust Okafor at this price more than Nerlens Noel at his. Okafor put up 22.25 DraftKings points in just 24 minutes against the Heat earlier this year. With Embiid out and Noel questionable, Okafor should get more minutes than that, making him and enticing option at this price.
Javale McGee ($3,700): McGee has started the last two games with Zaza Pachulia out. Even though he has only played a combined 32 minutes in those games, he has posted 46 DraftKings points. He is a bit of a risk against the Kings, but if he can produce like this in limited minutes, imagine what he can do if he goes over 20?
My pick: Davis(C), Jokic(UTIL); Whiteside(C)
Stay tuned for our FanDuel picks, and our picks for NHL and the PGA tour! We even have some EPL picks coming your way! Once again, make sure to follow our Twitter feed leading up to tipoff!