Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 88 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 378.7 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Yogi Ferrell ($5,600) When the Dallas Mavericks signed Yogi Ferrell to a ten-day contract at the end of January, did anyone really think we were getting the next version of Linsanity? Ferrell has stepped into the starting point guard role for Dallas and absolutely thrived and has been rewarded with a new two-year deal for the Mavericks.
From a fantasy basketball perspective, all Ferrell has done is deliver major minutes and rack up fantasy points as he has played 36+ minutes in each game and delivered 35+ FanDuel points in two of his four starts. Deron Williams has the potential to return for this game but we have to wonder if the starting gig is now officially Ferrell’s to lose.
Yogi gets a phenomenal match-up tonight against a Denver team that is 29th in DvP to opposing PG’s while Dallas sees one of the biggest pace increase while projected to score nearly 8 points higher than their season average. If Deron is out, Ferrell is a lock and load play tonight and even if Deron is in, I would still roll out Ferrell in GPP play as DFS players may be scared away but I believe Yogi Mania is here to stay!
D’Angelo Russell ($6,500) Russell has returned from injury with a bang, putting up monster numbers in each of his last three games and yet FanDuel has not yet adjusted his price to a point where I feel we have to even question rostering him.
Over the last three games Russell is averaging 20 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists and 42 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.4x value at this price point. Tonight Russell gets to take on a Knicks team that is expecting to get Derrick Rose back on the court which is great news for the Laker PG as Rose has the second worst individual defensive rating of any PG on this slate.
The mid-tier at PG is a great place to target tonight and Russell and Ferrell are both in elite spots with the potential for 35-40 FanDuel points while allowing us the salary relief to spend up elsewhere!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Dwyane Wade ($7,800) With Jimmy Butler nursing a hell injury that ruined my Friday night, it opens up a ton of usage for the Bulls and no player benefits more than Dwyane Wade in this scenario. With Butler off the floor this season, Wade sees an 8% usage bump and has a massive team leading 40% usage while putting up 1.15 fantasy points/minute.
In the last two games with Butler off the floor, Wade has exceeded 30+ FanDuel points in both contests and tonight gets to face a Kings defense that is 19th in DvP to opposing SG’s. Wade has been the primary ball-handler for Chicago in recent weeks as Fred Hoiberg continues to struggle with his PG rotations which only further enhances the value for D Wade tonight!
Devin Booker ($7,100) Perhaps the best game of the night from a DFS perspective, the Suns and Pelicans have the highest combined team total at 221 and a 5 points Vegas spread so we should expect some fireworks from these two up tempo teams tonight.
The Suns have the 5th highest projected team total on this slate and Booker comes into this game with 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last seven games. Booker is an ideal GPP target in this match-up and one only needs to look at his two previous games against the Pelicans to see why,
In the last match-up between these two teams, Booker racked up a solid 27.5 FD points as his teammate, Eric Bledsoe dropped a near 50 burger on that night as the lead dog in Phoenix. The previous game however was all Booker as he put up 41 FanDuel points while Bledsoe only put up 28!
Figuring out which player is going to have the big night is what makes this the perfect GPP gamble but with a $2.2k price discount off Bledose I am happy to take the savings with Booker and even a “normal” 30 FD point outing doesn’t burn me at this price point as much as it would with Bledsoe.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Matt Barnes ($3,800) Just for a second, pretend that you did not see the picture above or the name highlighted and think about this – if I told you that you could get a player who is playing 30+ minutes a night, has double-digit rebounds in each of his last three games all while averaging nearly 7x value at this price point – would you simply click lock and move on?
I get that Matt Barnes may not be the player you auto click on when setting your DFS rosters but his recent performance from a fantasy perspective is simply not lined up with a $3.8k FD price and I want to take advantage in all formats again tonight against a Jimmy Butler-less Bulls team!
P.J. Tucker ($4,700) Heading back to Phoenix, Tucker comes into this game with 32+ FanDuel points in two of his last three contests and faces a Pelicans team 23rd in DvP to opposing SF’s. In the last match-up between these two teams, Tucker scored 9 points, racked up 10 boards and delivered 31.5 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.7x value at this price point.
The Pelicans/Suns game is a great GPP stacking option and Tucker is an ideal way to get exposure at SF with demonstrated 6x upside!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Anthony Davis ($11,300) Of all the stars on this loaded Monday night slate, the one player I am most looking to pay up for tonight is Anthony Davis in a prime spot against the Suns. The Suns are ranked 24th in DvP to opposing PF’s this season and 28th against opposing Centers so we can clearly attack them inside!
The Brow comes into this game in elite form (which is always prime time for a first quarter locker room visit when you roster him) having put up 50+ FanDuel points in three of his last five games and makes for a great GPP correlation play off our Suns exposure in a highs scoring, close DFS contest!
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Kevin Love ($7,600) The Cavs-Wizards game has a 220 combined team total and 1 point Vegas spread so we will absolutely want some exposure to this game and Kevin Love may be the best way for us to do that!
The Wizards are top 10 in DvP at every position except PF where they rank a miserable 27th so Love should be able to dominate in this spot! In the previous match-up between these two teams, Love racked up 14 points, 16 rebounds and 34 FD points. Love has 40+ FD points in three of his last four full games and makes for an elite GPP target at this deflated price point!
Tyson Chandler ($5,400) One last play from this Suns-Pelicans game, I promise! Chandler has absolutely dominated this match-up so far this season as he has averaged 13 points and 20 rebounds while racking up 35 and 37 FanDuel points against New Orleans.
At this price point, we are looking at nearly 6.5x value assuming Chandler continues that same level of success and he makes for one of the easiest mid-range plays on the board in my opinion!
Best of luck in your FanDuel NBA contests tonight and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day on Twitter for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!