FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 7
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 88 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 378.7 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Tuesday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with three games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Kemba Walker ($8,900) After an insanely high scoring loaded DFS slate on Monday night we get a bit of an underwhelming three game slate on Tuesday night with two f the three games projected to be blowouts. From a GPP perspective, I think you would be best served taking a stand against one of the games and fading it entirely while trying to stack up the other games and that is exactly what I am going to do within my roster construction!
Walker and the Hornets get a home match-up against the Brooklyn Nets and are a team I am going to look to stack tonight in all formats as we all know the Nets “defense” is a fantasy gold mine! The Hornets see by far the biggest pace increase on the board and see a massive 9 point projected point increase over their season total.
On the face of it, I would expect many to think Kemba Walker will be the “chalk” play here but game log watchers may keep his ownership down. In the three previous games against Brooklyn this year, Kemba has put up 26,29 and 36 FanDuel points, hardly gaudy numbers considering the match-up. Walker has also failed to reach 30 FanDuel points in each of his last two games while battling an illness so my hope is that it keeps his ownership way down tonight!
Keep an eye on the industry buzz throughout the day as if Kemba is being ignored I think he could make for a sneaky GPP play tonight against a Nets team that is dead last in DvP to opposing PG’s and with his price sitting at the top of the PG list today many may opt to spend elsewhere!
Patrick Beverley ($5,600) I expect Yogi Ferrell to be the chalk mid-range play today as he gets another match-up against a Portland team he just dropped 40 FD points on! However keep in mind that in that game Yogi Bear knocked down 9 of 11 three-point attempts so I think this is a great spot to fade him and pivot to the Rockets floor general against the Magic.
Beverley actually was the team leader in fantasy points in the previous match-up between these two as he posted 17 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and 3 steals for 35.3 FanDuel points. Orlando is ranked 27th in DvP to opposing PG’s this season and if we can pivot to Beverley here and get an edge on the field that is all in on Yogi, it is a great way to differentiate ourselves on a three game slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($12,500) The Beard is priced nearly $4k higher than any other player on this slate and although initially my gut was to fade him, there is simply not a single other player I feel confident that could even remotely match him tonight and the salary structure is such on FanDuel that it is incredibly easy to fit him in and just eat the chalk.
Harden is coming off back to back monster games with 66 and 73 FanDuel points however he was held to only 32 FD points in this spot earlier this season so there is always merit to playing the strategic fade but tonight I simply think you eat the chalk and fire him up as he will likely be the top raw points performer on the night!
Evan Fournier ($5,600) The one team I am looking to stack tonight is the Orlando Magic as they see the second highest pace increase on the slate and have the third highest team total on this slate. If you are playing James Harden I think you almost have to stack the Magic on the other side of this game and hope it stays close!
Fournier will get the benefit of facing James Harden on the defensive end where the Rockets are ranked 23rd in DvP against SG’s. Fournier only managed 23 FD points in their earlier match-up but shot a uncharacteristic 4 for 13 from the floor in that game but if we assume he trends back to normal levels of efficiency, he could be in for a big night relative to this price point.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist ($5,200) If there is one player I will have 100% exposure to on this slate, it is MKG against the Brooklyn Nets. I love targeting MKG in pace up games like this and MKG has thrived in this match-up already this season as he has put up over 31 FD points over three contests which would exceed 6x value at this price point.
Kidd-Gilchrist has tow double-doubles in three games against the Nets and with his recent slump of going three games without cracking 20 FD points may keep game log watchers off his trail. Do not be one of them – lock in MKG tonight at SF and move on!
Aaron Gordon ($4,600) In the last match-up between these two teams, Gordon was the Magic team leader in FanDuel points as he dropped 35.7 FD points on the back of 18 points, 6 rebounds and 7 assists.
Houston is ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SF’s on the season and with this price point under $5k he makes for one of the easiest pieces to stack from the Magic at a SF position that will be difficult to fill on this slate.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Serge Ibaka ($5,900) Heading back to Houston and Orlando, we are going to want to attack the Rockets inside as they rank 25th in DvP to opposing PF’s and 24th against opposing Centers. Ibaka notched a double-double the last time these two tangled and put up 30.7 FanDuel points so this is a great spot to target him again tonight.
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Ibaka comes into this game in great form as well with 40+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games and after an 8 point dud against the Hawks, let others shy away from using him while we can go right back to the well!
Frank Kaminsky ($4,500) With Cody Zeller likely out again tonight for Charlotte, we should feel fre to fire up Frank the Tank in a prime match-up against the Nets. Kaminsky is coming off a game where he played 32 minutes against the Jazz and put up 21.9 FanDuel points so we can expect major minutes again tonight if Zeller is ruled out.
The Nets are ranked dead last in DvP to opposing PF’s on the season and Kaminsky is fresh off a 40 FanDuel point outing just two games ago against Golden State so the upside is clearly there for GPP play!
Nikola Vucevic ($6,900) Vooch is the last piece of the Orlando puzzle for me tonight and I love the fact we can stack their entire lineup for under $7k which pairs perfectly with James Harden tonight. The Rockets are 24th in DvP to opposing Centers on the season and Vucevic comes into this game averaging over 35 FanDuel points per game in his last 5 contests including a 52 point outing against Toronto.
Vooch has played at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games and with that kind of run tonight should be a lock for 5x value with clear 6x upside at a price point under $7k.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contest and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR all day on Twitter for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!