Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 90 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 379.0 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with five games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Thursday night presents us with a five game NBA slate but right off the bat I can almost limit my roster construction down to two games I really intend to target. The Jazz and Mavericks have a 192 combined team total which is by far the lowest on the slate and is a game I will be all out fading. The other game I will likely avoid (for now) is Oklahoma City versus Cleveland which on the face of it should be great for DFS purposes but Cavs coach Ty Lue has already said he is “likely” to rest all of the Cavs Big 3 in this spot which would take Russell Westbrook out of play for me here too and make the Cavs value the mega chalk tonight(aka fade city)!
Damian Lillard ($8,500) Portland and Boston is going to be one of the better games to target on this slate as we have a 220 combined team total and 1.5 Vegas spread so we can aggressively target the stars in a game that should be high scoring and close throughout.
Lillard looks like he has finally turned a corner and has produced back to back 46 FanDuel point outings against Dallas and Oklahoma City and now gets to face the worst individual defender at the PG position in Isaiah Thomas.
Portland has the second highest team total on the slate with 110 projected points and Lillard was able to drop 38.7 FanDuel points on Boston when these two teams matched up just a few games ago so I feel that we have a relatively safe floor with significant upside at this price point for one of the NBA’s elite scoring guards.
Kemba Walker ($7,500) The Charlotte-Houston game is by far my favorite game of the night in DFS as we get a 224 combined team total and a 4 point spread and the Hornets see the biggest pace bump and projected point increase of any team on the slate.
The pace increase/point bump for Charlotte is almost identical to the situation they found themselves in on Tuesday versus Brooklyn where Kemba was 70-80% owned in GPP play on a three game slate. Kemba let down his owners in that spot with only 27 FanDuel points, his third straight game held under 30 FD points so is this the point where everyone jumps ship? I sure hope so!
Charlotte and Houston faced off a few weeks ago and Walker dropped 25 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds for 46.2 FanDuel points which would exceed 6.1x value at this price point so the upside is clearly there and I think the price point is entirely too low for a player in this spot and he will be a core play for me tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
James Harden ($12,600) The most expensive player on the slate tonight seems like an easy plug and play on FanDuel as although we have a ton of great high-priced guards, the forward/center positions look like great places to save salary that we can shuffle towards locking in The Beard!
As I mentioned earlier, the other high-priced stars in this game in the OKC-Cleveland game look like they will be either sitting on the bench (Cavs) or involved in essentially a D League scrimmage (Westbrook) so if I am going to spend up I want a player in a high total game that Vegas expects to stay close!
With this game in Charlotte, I love the prospect of four quarters of Harden who went off for 40 points, 15 rebounds, 10 assists and 69 FanDuel points when these teams met a few weeks ago. I do not see any reason to get cute here, play Harden and let others try to play catch up!
Nicolas Batum ($7,700) As you can tell, I intend to spend heavily on the guards tonight and stacking Kemba/Batum with a correlation play in James Harden allows me to maximize my stack potential in this Charlotte-Houston game.
Batum comes into this game off when of his best performances of the year where he dropped 42.6 FD points against the Nets and tonight takes on James Harden defense and a Rockets team ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing SG’s. Batum’s ability to contribute across multiple categories makes him an ideal GPP play and I would expect most would pair Harden with a cheaper SG allowing us to differentiate our roster construction by spending up at all four guard spots!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Maurice Harkless ($3,800) One of the biggest pieces of injury news that broke over the last 24 hours was that Evan Turner will be out for the next 5-6 weeks with a hand injury with should immediately push Moe Harkless back into the starting lineup for Portland!
As a starter this season, Harkless was averaging over 30 minutes a night, with 11.5 points 5 rebounds and 2 blocks/steals per game and at less than $4k tonight makes for one of the best value plays on the board!
At this price point, Harkless only needs 22 FanDuel points to hit 6x value and if he is guaranteed major minutes in the starting rotation in a fast paced high scoring game tonight, I think he makes for one of the easy plug and plays at a tough SF position!
Player X ($4,100) What if I told you that for just over $4k you could lock in a player who has put up back to back double-doubles, averaging 12.5 points, 11 boards and 33 FanDuel points in his last two games.
Seems like an easy play right? I mean who wouldn’t want 8x value! Well the only concern is that this player is Andre Roberson who most DFS players know as a roster driven punt play who although is a lock for 30+ minutes a night is essentially an empty statistical producer.
Prior to the recent outburst, Roberson had failed to reach 20 FanDuel points in his previous five games so the question is whether or not his recent production can be maintained. If the Cavs do indeed sit the Big 3, Roberson should have no problems racking up boards and steals against the Cleveland bench so keep an eye on the news here as he may be primed for another double-double!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Serge Ibaka ($6,000) The one game we haven’t yet touched on yet is the Orlando-Philadelphia game which will be missing The Process but that doesn’t mean we have to avoid this game, especially at the PF position.
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Ibaka comes into tonight’s game in elite form with at least 36 FanDuel points in four of his last five games which is exactly 6x value at this price point. Without Embiid inside, the Sixers are highly vulnerable to opposing big men and Ibaka should continue to roll tonight for the Magic as one of my core plays at the mid-range price point!
Dario Saric ($4,300) Without Embiid on the floor, the Sixers remaining big men all get significant boosts and Saric comes into tonight’s game as one of the better pure point per dollar plays on the board.
Over his last six games, Saric has played at least 20 minutes a night, averaging over 25 FanDuel points per game and 5.9x value at this bargain price point. The one stat that is most encouraging for Saric is the shot attempts as he has put up 11,14,9, 17, 9 and 11 shot attempts over his last six and as long as he is getting double-digit shot attempts, makes for an elite GPP target!
Clint Capela ($5,200) Heading back to Houston one last time, I am all in on Clint Capela tonight who has really stepped up his game in recent contests for the Houston Rockets. Over his last three games, Capela has averaged 17 points, 9 rebounds and has hit 6x value in two of his last three games. Capela’s ability to run the pick and roll with Harden is a perfect fit for this Houston offense and I expect Capela will be able to dominate a Hornets interior that remains undermanned with Cody Zeller still questionable to return.
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter throughout the day for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!