FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 11
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 91 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 379.2 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Saturday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with seven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Russell Westbrook ($12,500) I am not normally one to base my picks off narrative alone but tonight Kevin Durant returns to Oklahoma City for the first time since he left them in the off-season and I simply do not care what Westbrook’s price is in this spot, I want all the spurned angry Westbrook I can get in this game!
The crowd in OKC is going to be absolutely bonkers tonight in a nationally televised game and I expect Westbrook to feed off that energy and go at the Warriors with everything he has! The last time these two teams met, Westbrook dropped 27 points, 15 rebounds and 13 assists for 64 FanDuel points and I see no reason that he cannot approach those totals again tonight.
The Thunder see the biggest pace increase of any team on this slate and in a game with a 227 combined team total and only a 6 point spread, I plan on maxing out my exposure to Beastbrook in all formats tonight!
George Hill ($6,100) Hill burned a lot of people last game as he was a late scratch for the Jazz but he is fully expected to play tonight and I think you can go back to him in a spot where I expect he will be largely over-looked.
The Jazz take on a Celtics team that 24th in DvP to opposing PG’s and Hill gets an individual match-up with Isaiah Thomas who has the worst individual defensive rating of any PG in the NBA! We saw the upside that Hill has in the right match-up as he scorched the Hawks for 41 FanDuel points just two games ago so this is a spot I think we can roster Hill in an elite match-up with similar upside.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Victor Oladipo ($6,400) Oladipo finally looks like he is rounding into form for the Thunder with 40+ FanDuel points in two of his last three games and in a hue pace up spot tonight I have no issue rolling him out again!
In the last match-up against Golden State, Oladipo put up 34.6 FanDuel points which would exceed 5.4x value at this price point and gives us solid mid-range exposure to the top game of the night!
Wayne Ellington ($3,700) This pick is injury dependent as Ellington would likely remain in the Heat starting line-up as long as Dion Waiters stays on the sidelines due to injury. The fact that Waiters was ruled out so early yesterday does not bode well for his availability on a back to back and I would expect Wellington to slot in as an elite value play tonight.
Philadelphia will be without Joel Embiid again tonight and for a team ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing SG’s, this is a great spot for us to lock in some value from a starting player! Ellington has played 25+ minutes in his last two games and has put up 10 shots a game including 8 three-point attempts in each contest. Miami sees a solid pace bump on this game and also sees a projected point increase so getting exposure here to the Heat value plays allows us to roster the big name studs on this slate!
UPDATE: With Eric Bledsoe ruled OUT, Brandon Knight should step into the starting lineup and at $3,700 on FanDuel makes for a lock and load play tonight. With Bledsoe/Chandler off the floor, Knight carries a 30% usage rate and has elite scoring upside against an up-tempo Houston Rockets team.
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kevin Durant ($10,700) Heading into this slate I knew I wanted to lock in Westbrook/Durant but I figured that FanDuel would alter the pricing on these stars to make it nearly impossible. I am pleasantly surprised that Durant is only $10.7k as this is a player that dropped 64.4 FanDuel points against the Thunder his last time out which would put Durant at 6x value. Anytime we can approach 6x value for a superstar we have to stop and take notice and the fact we can do this on Durant’s return to OKC makes this a no brainer play.
I expect the Westbrook/Durant pairing to be very popular tonight so we will need to utilize our other roster spots to differentiate ourselves but I firmly believe these two will be the top raw point performers on the slate and I think we have enough value to make this pairing work relatively easily!
Joe Ingles ($3,800) With Rodney Hood continued to be sidelined with injury, Ingles has stepped into the starting lineup for Utah and gets a fantastic match-up tonight against a Celtics team that is without Avery Bradley on the defensive end.
Ingles is coming off a 41 minute, 29.5 FanDuel point outing which would exceed 7.7x value at this price point tonight and on a night where we need to find value options, Ingles gives us the ability to roster a player with GPP upside at a sub $4k price point!
At the same price point and with Dion Waiters questionable to play, you can easily pivot to Rodney McGruder ($3,800) who has 29 FanDuel points in two of his last three games which would exceed 7.6x value at this price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Lavoy Allen ($3,800) and Marquese Chriss ($3,900) Power Forward is a spot I will likely look to punt tonight within this roster construction and I believe Allen and Chriss are two of the best GPP options to look towards.
The top end of the pricing spectrum includes one of my favorite players in Nikola Jokic who is coming off a monster 60 point outing against the Knicks but with the Nuggets on a back to back and playing 3 games in 4 nights, this is a spot I think we can fade them tonight against the Cavs in a projected blowout.
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As such, I will look towards the bargain bin and we can start with the Pacers PF who continues to start with Thaddeus Young out with an injury. The Bucks are ranked 23rd in DvP to opposing PF’s so this is a match-up that Allen can exploit and we only need to look back a few games to see his upside as he dropped 18 points, 11 rebounds and 39.7 FanDuel points against the Pistons. Allen has seen his production drop the last three games which will likely lead most to ignore him tonight but this is a great match-up to hop back on and allows us to continue our stars/scrubs roster build!
Chriss is a very divisive DFS player as you look at his skill-set and his starting role in Phoenix and it feels like an easy plug and play when you need a value PF but his performance is so sporadic that it has likely burned you more than once this year! Chriss’s recent run is no different from his season long story but keep in mind this is a player that has exceeded 6x value in three of his last seven games and with a pace up game against a Rockets team that struggles with opposing PF’s, I am happy to take a shot here tonight!
Also keep in mind that Tyson Chandler left last night’s game with an ankle injury and did not return which pushed to Chriss to play some minutes at Center. Keep an eye on this injury tonight as without Chandler on the floor it should open up some additional usage for Chriss!
Hassan Whiteside ($9,100) Whiteside was a popular target on Friday night against the Nets and hopefully you all listened to us and faded him as the Nets have presented match-up problems to him all year and forced the Hear to play small which resulted in an under-whelming 27.8 FD points last night.
So you got burned? Perfect – tonight we jump back on! Whiteside gets a dream match-up tonight against an Embiid-less Sixers interior – the very same one he dropped 30 points, 20 rebounds and 57 FD points in only 27 minutes just last week! Jump back on tonight and pair Whiteside with Westbrook/Durant for a high upside stars/scrubs lineup!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter throughout the day for all your late breaking lineup news and roster updates!