FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 13
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA Picks column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 92 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 378.6 a night which means we have needed 6.3x value to win big!
Monday’s Main FanDuel NBA action kicks off at 7:00PM EST with eleven games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Stephen Curry ($9,400) Looking over this slate initially, one number jumps off the page at me – 241. That number represents the combined team total for Golden State-Denver tonight and is a whopping 20 points higher than the next closest game on this 11 game slate so I plan on heavily stacking this game tonight!
The Warriors come into tonight’s game with an implied team total of 125 points which is nearly 7 points higher than their season average. Think about that for a second, the team that is already leading the league in scoring by eight points a game is expected to see another 7 point bump!
The question then becomes where on Golden State do we attack with their Big 4? The biggest weakness from a defensive standpoint on Denver is at PG where they rank 29th versus PG’s in DvP and I firmly believe after Saturday Night’s emotional win in OKC, that Kevin Durant will take a back seat to Curry in this game.
In the two previous meetings between these teams, Curry has put up 30 and 46 FanDuel points and comes into tonight’s game with 50+ FanDuel points in five of his last seven games. Fire up Steph tonight in all formats!
UPDATE: Klay Thompson has been ruled OUT as has Shaun Livingtosn. With Klay and Livingston off the floor this season, Curry sees a massive 10% usage bump and leads the team with a 40% usage rate and puts up 1.5 fantasy points per minute. LOCK HIM IN TONIGHT!
Ish Smith ($4,200) The benefit of playing some of the smaller NBA slates like we had on Sunday was that it forces you to dig into players you normally may overlook on larger slates and on Sunday I could not help but notice the recent shift in PG production for the Pistons.
Over the last few games we have seen Reggie Jackson‘s minutes and production slowly diminish while Ish Smith has been on an upward trajectory. Sunday that trend came to a head as Jackson only played 17 minutes and registered 9.5 FanDuel points while Ish Smith played 31 minutes and racked up 29.5 FanDuel points.
Over the last four games, Smith has been at 22 FD points or higher, hitting 5x value in each of those games while stepping up to 6x value in each of his last two contests!
On a night where we need to find a few value plays, Ish makes for one of the best point per dollar punt plays and I expect he will continue to be overlooked tonight on a large eleven game slate!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Klay Thompson ($6,900) As I already mentioned, the Warriors have the highest team total in by far the highest projected scoring game of the night and will see a pace boost tonight against the Nuggets. The Nuggets are not only 29th in DvP to opposing PG’s but they have the exact same rank against SG’s so I have no issue stacking the Splash Brothers in this spot tonight to maximize my exposure to Golden State!
Klay comes into tonight’s game with 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last six games including three games of 40+ FD points so the floor is relatively safe while we all know the ceiling that Klay brings from a GPP perspective.
On Friday night, Draymond Green stole the headlines with his unique triple-double and then Saturday night was the KD show in his return to OKC so tonight I think it’s the back-court that leads the show and I intend to have heavy exposure to the Warriors guards tonight!
UPDATE: Well the DFS dominoes are already falling as Klay has been ruled OUT tonight! My initial reaction is to save money and pivot down to Kentavious Caldwell Pope at $5,100 who gets a nice up-tempo match-up against the Bucks who have really struggled with opposing SG’s in recent weeks. If Wilson Chandler is unable to go (questionable with illness) you could also look at Gary Hariis ($5,200) to pick up the scoring slack for a depleted Denver squad!
Will Barton ($5,800) If you are a regular reader of Picks and Pivots you will know I have been targeting the Nuggets heavily over the past week as their injury depleted roster gives us what we crave in DFS – guaranteed minutes and clear rotations!
Danillo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried have already been ruled out for this game so that opens up WIll Barton to slide into the starting SF spot for Denver while pushing Wilson Chandler to the 4 spot. With Zaza Pachulia out for the Warriors I could see this game playing small and Barton seeing the same 35+ minutes of run he has gotten in three of his last four games!
Over the last four games, Barton has put up 35, 44 and 49 FanDuel points prior to a let-down game of only 22 points against the Cavs. I am willing to give Barton and the Nuggets a pass in that game as they were playing on the second night of a back to back and 3 games in 4 nights!
After a day of rest, the Nuggets should be a full go tonight and with a depleted roster already down, Faried, Gallinari and Darrell Arthur now questionable – Barton should get all the run he can handle!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Wilson Chandler ($6,600) This mid-range price point on Chandler just continues to make him an auto-play for me as long as Danillo Gallinari is out and in tonight’s pace up game for Denver, I am all in on Chandler at SF on FanDuel.
The Nuggets have the second highest team total on the slate and see the second biggest pace bump of any team Monday night! Chandler has been asked to play major minutes due to the Nuggets injury issues, playing at least 34 minutes in each of his last four games!
Chandler has been a very steady contributor for Denver with 35+ FanDuel points in three of his last four and put up 31 FanDuel points against this very same Golden State team the last time these two met (with Gallo on the floor). I see no reason to over think this one – play Chandler tonight as a one-off or as part of a game stack and simply move on!
T.J. Warren ($4,900) The one game we haven’t touched on yet (mostly because I have laser vision on GS-Denver) is New Orleans and Phoenix which has the second highest team combined total on the slate.
The Suns have the third highest projected point total on the night so we want to get some exposure here as well and with Tyson Chandler a game-time decision for Phoenix, we could see the Suns wing players forced to more small ball!
Warren has excelled in this match-up against New Orleans this season putting up 34.3 and 34.7 FanDuel points in their previous two meetings which is 7x value at this price point! Warren has double-digit shot attempts in five of his last six games and seems to be regaining his early season form. For under $5k, to get a player with this many guaranteed minutes and a 7x track record of production, I am happy to slot him in tonight in this roster build!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($10,100) Remember in the beginning of the season when Mike Malone was rotating Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic and we wondered which of the two big men would take off? Well with Jusuf Nurkic now a member of the Portland Trailblazers, the Nuggets are officially The Jokers team to run!
Jokic has been a foundation piece of my recent DFS success and I am all over him tonight in this match-up against Golden State. Jokic comes into tonight’s game with 40+ FanDuel points in four of his last six games and dropped 44.8 FD points against Golden State the last time they played in only 25 minutes of action! The price just continues to be too easy to fit in and I will have 100% exposure to Jokic tonight in this up-tempo high scoring game!
More from FanSided
- MLB Rumors: Justin Verlander has a clear suitor, but it comes with a catch
- MLB Rumors: Braves trade grade, Cardinals trade bait, Red Sox selling
- USMNT news: Turner to Forest, Trusty to Sheffield, Reynolds to Westerlo
- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
- Yankees: Luis Severino has blunt assessment of another miserable outing
Dario Saric ($5,100) With Joel Embiid already ruled out and Jahlil Okafor not making the trip to Charlotte (trade?), the Sixers front-court is essentially down to Nerlens Noel ($5,400) and Dario Saric ($5,100) tonight.
Although Noel may be the higher owned options due to his starting role, it is Saric who has been the better DFS producer for the Sixers in recent games. Over his last two games, Saric has put up 37 and 41 FanDuel points which would exceed 7.2x value at this price point and I am happy to ride the hot streak of the talented rookie tonight against a Hornets front-court that has struggled all year-long against opposing forwards!
Dwight Howard ($6,800) It is hard to believe that Howard’s price is now below $7k on FanDuel but considering the man has failed to top 30 FanDuel points in any of his last three games, the price reduction is probably warranted. So why would I be recommending a player on a cold-streak tonight? Well the Hawks take on Portland tonight and on Sunday it was announced that Portland would deal Mason Plumlee to the Nuggets for Jusuf Nurkic – and neither player is expected to debut for their new team on Monday night!
So what does that mean for Portland – Ed Davis or Myers Leonard will likely get the task of slowing down Howard inside. This screams mis-match and I expect Howard to absolutely dominate Portland inside tonight! Howard has double-doubles in eight of his last eleven and I see no reason he cannot add to that total tonight!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR throughout the day on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!