Fantasy Golf: DraftKings Genesis Open
Fantasy Golf DraftKings Genesis Open:
This week’s DraftKings Genesis Open will take us to Riviera Country Club, in Pacific Palisades, California. Riviera will play at 7,322 yards and a par 71. As we progress into the 2017 season, the field of players will continue to grow stronger and stronger. This week, two golfers ranked in the top ten, Sergio Garcia, and Adam Scott, will make their 2017 PGA tour debut.
When analyzing past winners and contenders, I’d recommend a focus on bombers this week. They have shown historical success (Bubba Watson is the former champion and also was a winner in 2014), and with rain in the forecast for the weekend, length should be weighted more heavily. I’ll be targeting many of the same statistics as normal: GIR, strokes gain tee to green, strokes gained on approach, and driving distance. Six of the 11 par 4’s at Riviera will play over 450 yards, so I will also be digging into players that perform well on par 4’s of 450+ yards.
Quick Notes:
The weather is shaping up to play a major factor, so it will be imperative to monitor the weather situation and tee times on Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
With DraftKings making adjustments in their pricing, there are now glaringly obvious value plays which will create the unique conundrum that makes DFS GPP’s so interesting. All of the plays recommended on the following pages fall into the category of chalky values, so keep that in mind when deciding how much ownership you’ll be allotting in tournaments.
DraftKings Genesis Open Top Tier: $12,600 – $10,000
With the addition of a few elite golfers, our top tier becomes a bit more interesting than choosing between a small few. If we take ownership out of the equation, Dustin Johnson is clearly the top play. He checks every box from driving distance, birdie scoring, recent form, Vegas projection, and course history. DJ has five top 5 finishes at this course, in the last seven years. I do however, think DJ will be the highest owned golfer of this tier.
For tournament play, I will have more exposure to Matsuyama, and Day. Overall, I think golfers in the mid tier are much more attractive options, but some of our lineups will force us to spend up, and I’ll be targeting these two golfers, who I think will be lower owned. As I mentioned, I think DJ is the best play, but so do 25% + lineups.
Coming off a win last week, and given the name recognition, I will be underweight on Spieth, especially as rainy conditions mitigate some of his putting advantage. I like Adam Scott for this course, I just haven’t seen enough of him lately and plan to be slightly underweight.
DraftKings Genesis Open Mid Tier: $10,000 – $7,500
Justin Rose – $8400
While Justin Rose posted an uneventful, 39th place finish last week, he again is a glaring value here at Riviera. Rose’s length, birdie making ability, and GIR % all set him up as one of the best overall plays. We’re getting a significant discount on Rose this week, where he currently has a 3.4% implied chance to win.
Brandt Snedeker – $7600
Brandt Snedeker is another head scratcher from a pricing standpoint. Snedeker is coming in with back to back top ten finishes and is priced well below where he should be. Vegas has bestowed Snedeker with a 2.9% chance of winning, which blows away any other golfer’s odds in this price range. His course history isn’t something to write home about, but his ability to make the cut and his upside make him a tremendous play in all formats.
Sergio Garcia – $9300
The Genesis will be Sergio Garcia’s first PGA event of the year, but he has competed in a few international events, and looks to be in solid form. Garcia won his last event at the Dubai Desert Classic, and has sprinkled in a few top 10 and top 20 finishes. Sergio has one of the field’s best course and field adjusted birdie scores, at 16.2 birdies per tournament. I expect Sergio’s ownership to be correlated to entry fees, and should elevate as the stakes increase.
Others to have exposure to: Phil Mickelson, Francesco Molinari
DraftKings Genesis Open Bottom Tier: $7,500 – $6,400
J.B. Holmes – $7100
J.B. Holmes had an impressive weekend at the AT&T Open, where he posted a 69 to slide in just above the cut, and then a 67 on Sunday. These types of rallies can be important from a confidence perspective and potentially carry into the next week. Holmes seems to enjoy heading to Riviera, where he’s made the cut six of his last seven times at this event, including and 11th place finish last year. Holmes can hit the ball a country mile, which may come in handy given the anticipated weather.
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Brooks Koepka – $7100
The pricing of Holmes, Koepka, and Steele is outrageous this week. Brooks Koepka comes in priced just above the $7000 mark, more than a $3000 drop off from last year where he was frequently priced in the upper $10,000’s and $11,000’s. Koepka is a very promising young golfer that can contend any week that he finds the fairway. There is some concern that he can post a big number when finding the rough, but it’s hard to find any reason to hesitate on this price tag (other than ownership).
Brendan Steele – $7100
Brendan Steele has been on fire, to kick off the 2017 season. Steele has finished 20th or better in each of his 2017 outings, including two 6th place finishes. Steele has a unique combination of length and GIR. He currently has a course and field adjusted driving distance of 301.6 yards, and has hit 69.3% GIR. Steele also has an above average course history, and while his Vegas projection is a bit lower than Holmes, and Koepka (1.6%), he should still be considered in all formats, due to inaccurate pricing.
Others to have exposure to: Branden Grace, Ryan Moore, Webb Simpson, Pat Perez, Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Tony Finau, Jim Furyk, Kevin Chappell, Thomas Pieters, Hudson Swafford, Scott Piercy, Harris English
Best of luck in your Daily Fantasy Contests this weekend in the PGA and stayed tuned to Fantasy CPR each day for all your DFS advice and analysis!