Can Outfielders Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen Bounce Back?

At age 29 and 30, Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen both find themselves on the wrong side of an ordinary 2016 season. Can we count on both outfielders to bounce back this year?

Think of position scarcity, and automatically, you should think first base and shortstop. I’ll admit, I didn’t realize there was a problem finding talent and depth at any other spot, but turns out, you’re going to have a tough time drafting at an entirely different position this season.

The outfield is shallow this year. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty to choose from, but if you’re unfortunate enough not to land Kris Bryant, Mookie Betts or Mike Trout, there’s a significant talent gap between the top three elite guys and the rest.

Finding the right mix between young talent and established veterans is challenging enough, but when you’re confronted with a list of players that have had average to below average 2016 seasons, that’s when things get tough on draft day.

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Two guys that I always seem to come across are Justin Upton and Andrew McCutchen. They’ll likely fall to the third or fourth rounds, and after both players had rather un-Upton and un-McCutchen like seasons, most people seem to be staying well away from the once highly touted outfielders.

For me, though, taking a gamble on players that are due for a big bounce-back season is part of the fun. Everyone wants to look like a genius, but Upton and McCutchen are two guys that are seriously worth drafting higher than you might’ve already thought.

Here’s why:

Justin Upton’s Problems Are Easy Peasy

Everything happened at once for Upton in 2016, and it only got worse before it got better.

Upton was streaky, cold most of the time, and was even benched in August so he could get his head straight. He went 3-for-43 that month and left a lot of people wondering if he was hurt or simply struggling to gel with the Tigers in his first season.

Remarkably, everything came together in time for Upton to have a pretty special September and a pretty special season. Finishing with 87 RBIs and 31 HRs, was there ever really a problem?

If you weren’t paying attention, you wouldn’t think so. The basic fact of the matter is, Upton’s numbers are the perfect beard for a season that lacked everything we wanted to see from a guy that should be among the Top 5 outfielders in the game now.

To narrow it down, the biggest problem Upton had and still has is his career-low .310 OBP. It now sits below the league average, and after striking out 33 times with men in scoring position and walking only 14 times, it’s no wonder why.

Aside from walks, though, Upton simply isn’t swinging at pitches like he used to. In 2016 he swung at only 44.1% of all pitches thrown, and if we compare that to the 48.4% he swung at in 2014, the real story begins to be told.

It’s pretty simple, but in 2014 Upton finished with a higher contact rate of 73.1%. In 2016 it dropped to a low 71.7%, the same as it was when Upton had another down season in his first year with the Braves.

How to solve this problem you ask? It’s a timing thing, a problem Upton had all last season. His head moved before the ball was even close to the plate, and it made pitchers jobs’ easier since they threw fastball after fastball 57.6% of the time.

I can’t see a player as clever and mature as Upton not figuring his mechanics out, especially since he’s being pulled from the number two spot in Brad Ausmus’ lineup. The good thing you can always count on with Upton is a plentiful amount of home runs because he’s still pulling everything to left field. If he keeps his eye on the ball, expect him to hit closer to 35.

Andrew McCutchen Is a Creature… Of Habit

McCutchen is one of the greats, and I think it’s safe to say he’ll be out to prove it to the Pirates’ and make sure they don’t regret not trading him. I also think it’s crazy how an outfielder with a slash line of .256/.336/.430 is considered to have a “bad season”, but I guess the standard McCutchen continues to set is just expected each season.

What is also expected from McCutchen, is a much more relaxed year. He heaped pressure on himself during a slumpy season filled with trade rumors and has been moved to right field to make way for Starling Marte.

The shift to the right isn’t the only move McCutchen will be making this year either. Jumping back to the ole’ number three spot in the lineup should bring back the numbers we expect from McCutchen, after Clint Hurdle’s harebrained scheme to move him up in the order crashed and burned midseason.

The thinking behind moving McCutchen up was more at-bats equals more success. None of that worked, however, as McCutchen hit only 25 RBI’s in the number two spot, and the rest of his numbers suffered.

Overall, McCutchen’s season last year should tell us a lot about what we can expect this year if he does bounce back. Last season McCutchen simply struck out more and walked less. He finished with a career-high 143 strikeouts, and just 69 walks. McCutchen was swinging at more pitches outside of the zone than he has in his career and even struggled more against righties.

McCutchen’s wOBA also says a lot, dropping from a mighty .380, all the way down to .329. I know numbers don’t tell the full story sometimes, but in this case, they really do.

For owners, McCutchen’s bounce back will depend entirely on him falling back into his old groove. The third spot in the lineup is where he belongs, and for some reason, I feel like when the chips are down and McCutchen is considered the underdog, it’s when he truly comes out to play. His selflessness does the talking, and since he’s easily going to fall to later rounds, riding him straight back into a comeback year at the age of 30 is a likely scenario.

Next: Are you undervaluing Brandon Crawford?

Others to Consider

Upton and McCutchen were gone? Consider drafting these other outfielders as potential bounce-backers.

Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers
Kyle Schwarber, Chicago Cubs
Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs
Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants
Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals

Follow Ryan Cook on Twitter: @RyanCook13

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Can Justin Upton, Andrew McCutchen Bounce Back?

By Ryan Cook | Feb 26, 2017

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