FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – February 27
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s seven game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday Night’s slate saw scores actually drop below the season average as the winning roster put up only 375.6 FanDuel points. Over the first 99 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 379.3 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 99 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 379.3 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
The Picks and Pivots Stars and Scrubs approach only managed to get us in the 275 range which was below the cash line across the board! Paying up for Russell Westbrook (63), Anthony Davis (53), DeMar DeRozan (45) and DeMarcus Cousins (46.5) was worth it however our bargain plays fell well short of value which left us looking up at the leader board!
The winning entry last night built a LA Clipper stack which hit it big in the last game of the evening as Chris Paul (53), DeAndre Jordan (51) and Blake Griffin (65) all went off for massive nights against the Hornets!
Back to the grind we go tonight with a great seven game slate so let’s jump into the picks!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
Stephen Curry ($9,300) Looking over this slate initially, we are still waiting on many team totals/spreads due to injury news but there are two games I am targeting early on as great game stacks for my GPP lineups on this slate including the Warriors visiting the Sixers.
The Sixers side is really what draws me to this game (more on that later) so I need to build a correlation play on the Golden State side in case this game stays close! Although Kevin Durant is expected back in the lineup with his hand injury, I still believe Stephen Curry is the top play from Golden State here as his price point is $1k less than KD’s and he faces a Philadelphia team giving up the 4th most fantasy points to opposing PG’s over the last five games!
Curry has really started to turn it on in recent games with 50+ FanDuel points in five of his last ten contests. The Warriors actually see the third highest pace boost on this slate, which considering their already fast pace of play should put Curry in a prime spot for a big night. Normally I would be hesitant to target Golden State, but the fact that this game is on the road makes me feel exponentially more comfortable. Golden State has a 17.4 point margin of victory at home this season but that mark is slashed to only 8.2 points on the road so if Philly can keep this close, I want to ensure I have exposure to both sides of this game!
The one potential pivot here is Kyrie Irving ($9,100) as he would become a near must play again if LeBron James misses tonight’s contest with the illness that kept him out of Saturday Night’s action!
Cory Joseph ($4,400) The other game on this slate I am very interested in will be the Toronto Raptors and the New York Knicks really due to the fact that each team is missing one of their stars, allowing us to grab other players who will soak up that usage.
Joseph is simply still priced too low as the starting PG with Kyle Lowry out with an injury and has put up 25.2 and 26.2 FD points in his past two starts which puts him right at 6x value. Derrick Rose has one of the worst individual defensive ratings of any PG on this slate so this is a spot we can certainly look to attack.
My only concern with the Raptors is that this is the third game in four nights and CJ has played 34.5 minutes per game in his previous two starts, but with Lowry out, the Raptors frankly have nowhere else to turn and I would expect they continue to ride Joseph here as one of the best values on the board!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500) As I mentioned in Sunday’s Picks and Pivots article, for as long as Kyle Lowry is out with an injury, I am simply locking in DeRozan each and every night at this price point and tonight is no exception.
DeRozan sees a 7.3% usage increase with Lowry off the floor and leads the team with a massive 43.7% usage rate while putting up 49 FD points per 36 minutes. DD has put up 45.2 and 53.5 FanDuel points in the last two contests without Lowry while putting up 22 field goal attempts and 14 free throw attempts per game!
I know the three games in four nights piece is a potential worry but the usage is just way too high to fade this guy right now and I see no way Courtney Lee is able to slow him down this evening. In their first meeting this season, DeRozan smoked the Knicks for 33 points, 7 rebounds, 4 assists and 49.4 FanDuel points (with Lowry on the floor) so the upside is clearly there at this price point tonight as the Raptors one man show!
Gerald Henderson ($3,700) No team on this slate sees a bigger pace boost than the Philadelphia 76ers and we are seeing a team without Nerlens Noel, Ersan Ilyasova and Joel Embiid lean heavily on its remaining players to carry the load in recent games.
Henderson may fly under the radar but he makes for an elite SG value play tonight as he should continue to see 30+ minutes per night and has double-digit shot attempts in each of his last two games. At this price point, Henderson only needs 22 FanDuel points to hit 6x value, a number he has reached in two of his last five starts.
In the two games since the trading deadline, Henderson is third on the Sixers in usage at 23.8% which is nearly 5% higher than his season long average. If you are looking for a punt play tonight, Henderson is a great one-off play at SG or can be a sneaky play within a GS-Philly game stack!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Robert Covington ($7,100) It is crazy to see Covington’s price up over $7k on FanDuel, but his recent performance frankly warrants the price boost! Covington has been an absolute beast since the All-Star Break, averaging over 22 points, 10 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 assists per game!
In the last two contests, Covington has put up 43 and 48.7 FanDuel points which is at/above 6x value even with this inflated price point! Covington is putting up nearly 1.2 fantasy points per minutes as the lead dog offensively in the last two games which is a near 45% increase over his season long averages.
I am riding the hot streak tonight in this massive pace up spot for Philly as the Sixers try to keep up with the high-powered Warriors offense!
Carmelo Anthony ($8,200) When Kristaps Porzingis is off the floor, we always need to look towards Melo as he sees over a 4% usage boost, leading the team with a 36.4% usage rate while putting up over 41 FD points per 36 minutes.
Melo WAS the Knicks offense on Saturday without KP as he posted 37 points, 6 rebounds and 46.2 FD points on the back of 25 field goal attempts! With KP and Lowry off the floor, I love the idea of a Melo-DeRozan DFS pairing as they should both dominate the usage and have the ability to carry their teams to big time fantasy scores at these mid-range price points!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Dario Saric ($7,000) Remember when Saric was priced below $6k all year? Well, the price us rising sand frankly even at $7k, Saric still feels like a steal! In the last two games, Saric is putting up a 27.2% usage rate while hitting nearly 40 FanDuel points per 36 minutes of action.
Without Embiid, Noel and Ersan on the floor, Saric has put up 40 FD points in back to back games and has four straight double-double performances. Over his last four games, Saric is averaging 19 points and 12 rebounds and has taken no less than 17 shots per game!
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As I mentioned initially, the Sixers are the team I essentially started my roster build with tonight as they see the biggest pace increase with a home game against the Warriors. Saric and Covington have both seen their prices rise to $7k but I believe there is still upside at this price, especially in this match-up tonight!
Serge Ibaka ($5,900) Without Porzingis on the floor, it makes the Knicks even more vulnerable inside as the aforementioned Saric proved on Saturday night with a 40 spot! The Raptors new PF is coming off his best game as a member of the Raptors where he dropped 18 points, 10 boards and 38 FanDuel points which exceeds 6.4x value at this price point.
The Knicks are ranked 29th in DvP to opposing PF’s on the season and are giving up the third most fantasy points to opposing PF’s over the last ten games! Ibaka sits at an incredibly reasonable price tonight and makes for a great one-off play as well as an addition to a Toronto/NY stack!
Jahlil Okafor ($5,700) No player on the Sixers has seen a bigger usage increase than Mr. Okafor since the ASB as he has put up a 30% usage rate while notching 40 FanDuel points per 36 minutes of action.
Okafor is a volatile DFS option so be aware, as he put up only 13 FanDuel points in the first outing of the “second half” before dropping 28 points, 10 rebounds and 41.5 FanDuel points against the Knicks. The upside is clearly there for Okafor but he makes for a better GPP play due to his volatility.
If you are looking for a pivot play, Guillermo Hernangomez sits at $5,900 and is averaging 10 points, 10 rebounds and right at 30 FanDuel points over his last three games as the starting Center for the Knicks. Willy is a better cash game play as he is steadily producing 5x value in this role and makes for a solid building block if you want to add to your Toronto/NY stack!
Next: College Basketball: March Madness Preview
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!