Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s six game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday Night’s slate saw scores drop WELL below the season average as the winning roster put up only 335.4 FanDuel points which frankly is amazing considering the high scoring spots we had projected on this slate! Over the first 100 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 100 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
The winning entry in the $6 FanDuel GPP last night took home $110,000 with only 335, the lowest GPP winning score we have seen on a slate this size in a long time! Picks and Pivots had a similar core built around mega chalk – DeMar DeRozan and Cory Joseph as well as Dario Saric and Robert Covington in a pace up spot against the Warriors. The big differentiator for the winner was Karl-Anthony Towns who dropped 29 points, 17 rebounds and 56.4 FanDuel points at only 14% ownership!
Back to the grind we go tonight with a great six game slate so let’s jump into the picks!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
John Wall ($10,000) and Stephen Curry ($9,300) Looking over tonight’s six game slate, there are two games that stand out above the rest as the Wizards/Warriors and Bulls/Nuggets are the only two games with 220+ team totals. Whenever I start my GPP lineups, I am looking for potential game stacks and although I do like the Bulls side tonight, the Nuggets lineup is entirely too healthy and the minutes are way too spread out to find a stack I actually feel comfortable with tonight.
That brings us back to the Warriors and Wizards who have by far the highest combined team total (229) which is 8 points higher than the Bulls/Nuggets and 14-15 points higher than the next closest game on the slate! With the game being in Washington, with only a 6.5 Vegas spread, this is the perfect opportunity to stack this game and the price points are such where we can feel confident doing so!
Any time I am stacking a game, the very first thing I do is look to lock in the opposing PG’s as we can build around the two highest usage players on the floor that will determine the flow of the game. These two teams have yet to play this season, however in the first match-up between these two last year, both Curry AND Wall put on a show with 60+ FanDuel points each which shows the kind of upside we are looking at here!
Curry is coming off a very odd game on Monday night where he went 0-11 from three-point range but still managed to put up 33 FanDuel points. Prior to that game, Curry had put up 50+ FD points in five of his last ten games and I would bank on a big time bounce back tonight!
Wall and the Wizards see the biggest pace bump of any team on this slate and are projected to score the third most points of any team in action. I love to target Wall in pace up spots like this and he comes into this game with 50+ FanDuel points in four of his last nine games. The floor with Wall is incredibly safe as well as he has failed to dip below 40 FD points in any of those games so feel confident firing up this duo tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Rodney Hood ($4,100) The one spot I will look to pass on the Warriors/Wizards is at SG as both teams defend the position exceptionally well, ranking third and eighth in DvP against the position. This is a spot therefore that I will look to pivot away from this game AND save some salary by targeting some punt plays that I could see exceeding value tonight.
Rodney Hood returned to the Jazz starting lineup two games ago and has seen his minutes trend up from 21 to 27 and tonight he says a massive pace boost against the Thunder. In the early season match-up between these two, Hood played 31 minutes and put up over 26 FanDuel points on the back of 25 points and five three pointers. Hood put up 21.6 FanDuel points in his last game against the Wizards (5x value) in only 27 minutes so I feel comfortable targeting Hood again tonight and am hopeful we can get him at a depressed ownership before his minutes jump back over 30 a night!
Alex Abrines ($3,600) On the other side of this game, it looks like Victor Oladipo continues to be limited by his back injury and is questionable for tonight’s game which would put Abrines back in the starting lineup.
Normally we do not look to target players against the Jazz, but any time I can get a starting player for near minimum price, we have to take notice! Abrines has played 32 minutes a game as the starter over the last two contests, averaging just shy of 20 FanDuel points per night which would exceed 5.4x value at this price point!
Abrines is a talented shooter and the Thunder are confident in letting him put up his shot as he has put up 25 shots in the last two games, including 18 three-point attempts! The fact that we can lock in a player that is playing 30+ minutes with that kind of shot volume absolutely trumps the match-up and he is an excellent GPP punt at a result!
If you are looking for a pivot, Allen Crabbe is an intriguing punt play at only $3,500 on FanDuel. Crabbe is coming off a game where he played 31 minutes where Portland went small and we have now seen Crabbe play 30 minutes in three of his last five games. In the last meeting with Detroit, Crabbe went off, hitting 12 of 15 shots off the bench and played 42 minutes in an OT game where he dropped 32.7 FD points. If you are looking for a GPP punt play, Crabbe has my interest!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Kevin Durant ($10,400) Durant makes his return home to Washington D.C. tonight and fire up the narrative here DFS players as KD may want to put on a show for his hometown crowd. Durant returned to the floor after a one game “injury” and proceeded to drop 42 FanDuel points against the Sixers as a tune up to what I expect to be the highest scoring output of the night!
The Wizards are ranked 19th in DvP to opposing SF’s and with the Warriors projected to score the most points of any team on the slate, this is a spot where I think we need to simply fire up KD tonight within a stack with Curry/Wall and simply watch the fantasy points roll in!
Otto Porter ($6,200) The interesting part about the Wizards tonight is that outside of John Wall, the rest of their starting lineup sits between $6k-$7k which makes stacking them an easier task, but finding the right complimentary piece to John Wall is the challenge.
Bradley Beal gets a tough match-up against Klay Thompson and was only able to put up 24 and 28 FD points against him last year and Markieff Morris gets the hardest individual match-up against Draymond Green at PF who has the single best individual defensive rating of any player on the slate!
Essentially the choice comes down to Porter or Marcin Gortat for me tonight and I am opting to go with Porter who I believe has the higher ceiling in this pace up game! Porter has put up 35+ FanDuel points in four of his last seven games and after two straight down performances, sits at a price point where 6x value (37 points) is easily within reach tonight!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Draymond Green ($7,200) Although Curry and KD are the big-ticket items we want in this showdown, it is Draymond Green who may be my favorite play on the Warriors tonight. Green gets to take on a Wizards team that is ranked 29th in DvP to opposing PF’s and goes up against Markieff Morris who he absolutely dominated last year in this match-up.
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In the two games last season (obviously sans Durant), Green put up 50 and 51.7 FanDuel points while averaging a triple-double! Draymond comes into this game fresh off a vintage Draymond game against the Sixers where he racked up 14 points, 11 boards, 6 assists and 5 steals and it is that kind of all-around performance that makes him a GPP steal at only $7.2k tonight!
Nikola Mirotic ($4,400) With the departure of Taj Gibson, it was widely expected that it was finally time to Free Bobby Portis however it has been Mirotic that has flourished since the trade. In the two games without Gibson, Mirotic has put up 16 points, 9 rebounds and 30+ FanDuel points per game which exceeds 6.8x value at this price point!
Zaza Pachulia ($4,500) One last Warrior to round out our game stack tonight as we look towards the Warriors man in the middle to complete our roster. Zaza does not log major minutes but his per minute effectiveness makes him an intriguing DFS target tonight. Pachulia has put up 24.9 FanDuel points per game over his last three contests, which would put him at 5.5x value. Amazingly, Zaza has been able to rack up these totals in only 15-20 minutes a night but I would expect a but more run this evening as the match-up with Marcin Gortat is one I think that will require him to log more time on the court!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!