FanDuel NBA Daily Picks and Pivots – March 1
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for tonight’s eleven game slate which kicks off at 7:00PM EST!
As a reminder, the concept behind FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday Night’s slate saw scores spike back up over 400 FanDuel points which is certainly more in line with the season long trends we have seen! Over the first 101 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 379.1 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Over the first 100 slates, the average winning GPP score has been 378.9 which would mean we need 6.3x value from our roster in order to win big!
Picks and Pivots had a tremendous start to our DFS night as we sat back with our Warriors/Wizards stack, opened a cold one and turned on the game to watch two high-powered teams rack up fantasy points! Kevin Durant had a quick turnover (no big deal) and then Zaza Pachulia fell backwards onto KD’s knee sending a player we had 100% exposure to right to the locker room with a -1 on our rosters and that my friends, was all she wrote.
The Durant injury sunk over 20% of GPP lineups on FanDuel last night but interestingly enough we did salvage some of our entry fees in H2H contests as we were lucky enough to go up against other Durant led lineups. One of the things you hear about all the time in DFS is to differentiate your contests and last night was the perfect example as we were able to recoup some of our investment in H2H games even with a -1 from good ole KD!
With eleven games on tonight’s slate we don’t have any more time for whining – let’s get to the picks and make back our money!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guard Picks
If you take nothing else away from today’s Picks and Pivots article, the biggest key on this slate is going to be – FIND VALUE. We have eleven games with the top six teams on the slate (all interestingly facing each other) projected to score 110 points or more and none of those games has a projected spread over 3.5 points!
The Rockets/Clippers, Nuggets/Bucks and Celtics/Cavaliers are all games I would look at stacking or getting one-off exposure to but the overlying theme here is the slate is littered with high salary players in elite situations. If you want exposure to the studs on this slate, you are going to need to find value – that will be the key between winning or losing in my opinion.
Elfrid Payton ($5,800) The game I love the most from a value perspective is Orlando-New York as we get a game with the fourth highest projected combined team total (215) and a plethora of roster options at reasonable price points.
Elf is one of my favorite GPP plays as his ability to put up massive stat lines across the board is exactly what we are looking for in our boom or bust plays. Do not get me wrong, Payton will bust….A LOT….as you can see by his recent game logs where he has put up 14 or fewer FanDuel points in three of his last five.
However you will also notice that is mixed in with a 32 and 46.3 FanDuel point outing, including his last game where he dropped 15 points, 9 rebounds and 9 assists. Payton has had similar success against the Knicks this season, posting 13 points, 14 assists and 41.6 FanDuel points the last time these two met up!
Ty Lawson ($4,900) The Sacramento Kings take on the Brooklyn Nets tonight in a game that frankly only people playing fantasy basketball are going to watch, but it is a great target for DFS value!
We have been targeting the Nets all season long as they are ranked 30th in DvP to four of the five positions on the floor(including PG) and I believe all the Kings players are firmly in play tonight as they see the biggest pace increase of any team on the slate and are expected to score 6 points more than their season average tonight. Considering this is a team now with DeMarcus Cousins, this point increase says more about the opponent than anything else but I plan to utilize the value plays here tonight across multiple formats!
Ty Lawson re-entered the starting lineup last game and was one of only two Kings players to see over 30 minutes of action (WCS was the other) as he played 35 minutes and dropped 11 points/9 assists on his way to 26.7 FanDuel points (5.4x value).
With Cousins and Rudy Gay off the floor this year, Lawson has a steady 21% usage rate while putting up over 30 FanDuel points per 36 minutes and is in an ideal value spot tonight against the worst defense in the league!
UPDATE: Some intriguing news has broke throughout the day which may impact my PG selections tonight. First, Jameer Nelson is now questionable with an illness which could open up big time opportunity for impressive rookie Jamal Murray ($3,500). Murray has put up 11 shot attempts per game over his last three games and in one of the best games to stack tonight, I would want heavy exposure to him if we can get confirmation that Nelson is out.
This move has a domino effect for me as if I can pivot down to Murray, it opens up salary to get to Jrue Holiday ($7,700) as a pairing with Anthony Davis. With DeMarcus Cousins out, Holiday should see his usage bump back up to where it was prior to this trade when he was routinely putting up 40-50 FD point outings!
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guard Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100) When looking over my roster build and trying to figure out which stars I wanted to build around, I initially toyed with a James Harden – Clippers combination however that build required significantly more Clippers pieces (to maximize the Chris Paul assists) and left me with essentially $4k or less per player after putting in the key LA pieces.
I took a pivot approach instead and went to the next highest scoring game on the slate (Bucks/Nuggets) and what I love about this “stack” is you can really target the two top players who dominate all the usage and get your exposure that way!
The Bucks are now not only playing without Jabari Parker but they are also down Michael Beasley for the sort term which means the Bucks are essentially the Giannis show. Khris Middleton is the only other option here but I have a hard time playing over $5k for a guy who has not played 30 minutes yet(although tonight may be that night).
The Bucks see nearly a 10 point projected scoring increase tonight against the Nuggets who are ranked 26th or worse against opposing Guards and SF this season. When these two teams met earlier this year, Giannis put up a solid 43 FanDuel points but I would expect that to be more representative of his floor and not the ceiling he has in this match-up!
Rodney Hood ($4,100) We touched on Hood in yesterday’s article as a top value SG and he paid off nicely for us as he put up 18 points, 6 rebounds and 23.2 FanDuel points which would exceed 5.6x value at this price point.
Perhaps the best number on the stat sheet is that Hood finally played over 30 minutes last night and I would expect him to get similar run tonight against Brandon Rush and the Timberwolves. Over the last 10 games, the Timberwolves are giving up a 10% increase in fantasy points allowed to opposing SG’s so this is a spot, without Zach LaVine on the floor that we can target with confidence tonight.
For only $4.1k tonight, Hood is one of my favorite value plays as he should continue to see 30+ minutes, is putting up double-digit shot attempts and gets a favorable match-up!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forward Picks
Terrence Ross ($4,100) and Jeff Green ($3,600) Heading back to value town, we check back in on Orlando as they take on the New York Knicks. Ross, like Rodney Hood, is one of my favorite value plays on the board and will be a key roster piece on this slate when trying to fit in the high-priced studs!
Ross has played tremendously well for Orlando since coming over in the Serge Ibaka trade, averaging 34 minutes, 18.5 points, 4.5 boards, 2.5 steals and 31.7 FanDuel points per game which would exceed 7.7x value at this price point! The Knicks are ranked 28th in DvP to opposing SF’s as Carmelo Anthony thinks defense is optional and at this price point I think you simply take the free square and move on.
Green on the other hand is 100% injury dependent as he is only a DFS option if Aaron Gordon misses this game. Gordon is questionable for tonight’s game with a quad injury and if he misses the game, it is expected that Jeff Green will enter the starting lineup at PF for the Magic. The Knicks are ranked 27th in DvP to opposing PF’s and with Kristaps Porzingis still nursing an ankle injury, this could be a sneaky spot for Green who only needs 21 FD points to hit value at this bargain price point!
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forward and Center Picks
Nikola Jokic ($9,800) Oh Joker, I can’t quit you! The price under $10k is just screaming to play Jokic tonight and the fact he is coming off a 52 FD point triple-double should make you feel better that Mike Malone will not ruin our lives tonight!
More from FanSided
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- Inside the Clubhouse: What I’m hearing as the MLB Trade Deadline nears
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The Bucks are completely depleted up front and are ranked 26th in DvP to both opposing PF’s and Centers and this is a spot where Jokic should dominate the Bucks big men! When these two teams met a few weeks ago, Jokic put up 20 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists and 50 FanDuel points and I would expect a similar outing tonight for a player that is simply priced too low!
Anthony Davis ($11,600) After all the value plays I have talked you through, I am sure you were wondering when I was going to spend some salary – well with the Jokic/AD pairing, you can see why I was looking to save elsewhere.
The big news tonight is that DeMarcus Cousins is suspended which puts The Brow back in his familiar role of dominating usage as a one man Pelicans wrecking crew! When these two teams met earlier this year, Davis put up 31 points, 12 rebounds and 55 FanDuel points and I have no issue building around AD tonight as the Pistons simply have no answer for him and he will once again be the focal point of the New Orleans attack!
Kyle O’Quinn ($4,700) With Joakim Noah out for the year and now Willy Hernangomez out due to injury, this leaves DFS darling, KOQ as the last man standing in the NY front court. O’Quinn will get the start tonight and faces a Magic team he went off on earlier this season to the tune of 14 points, 16 rebounds and 5 blocks for 42.2 FanDuel points!
Best of luck tonight in your FanDuel NBA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter all day for late breaking lineup news and roster updates!