Fantasy Golf: DraftKings PGA WGC-Mexico Championship
This week’s DraftKings PGA WGC-Mexico Championship will take us to Club de Golf Chapultepec, in Naucalpan, Mexico. This event was formally known as the WGC Cadillac Championship, and held in Doral, Florida. With the new location, we no longer have the ability to use course history in our decision-making process. What we do know, is that this course will play at over 7330 yards and a par 71. However, length can be deceptive here, as altitude should shorten the course quite a bit. The course clubhouse sits 7,870 feet above sea level, and we can expect some monster drives this week.
Without any course history to refer to, I’ll be looking to find similar course fits and honing in on specific comparable statistics. I’ll be leaning on key stats such as: GIR, driving accuracy, birdie scoring, stokes gain tee to green, Vegas odds, and recent form.
This is a no cut event, therefore lending more to a “stars and scrubs” lineup construction strategy. However, the bottom portion of the field doesn’t offer much. I wont be diving too deep with cheap flyers, but will be over exposed to some golfers in the mid range.
Top Tier – $12,500 – $8,000
The WGC-Mexico Championship will mark Rory Mcilroy’s return to the PGA tour after suffering a rib injury. With the addition of Mcilroy, our group of elite players continues to grow and offers different avenues for tournament construction. Given his name recognition, recent form, and win at the Genesis, I have Dustin Johnson projected as the highest owned golfer from this group. Stenson, Garcia, Rahm, and Rose all stand out as value plays, and I would expect their ownership to be inflated.
Jordan Spieth – $11500
With the aforementioned, cheaper values, I think Spieth could go underowned relative to those in this price range. If this holds true, I’ll be looking to jam him in, on a course where he sets up perfectly. Spieth isn’t known for his length off of the tee, and as we talked about, the altitude should mask that, and lend to more accurate ball strikers. His putting ability is unmatched, scoring a field low 28.1 puts per round. Given his win at Pebble Beach this year, the poa annua greens aren’t much of a concern.
Sergio Garcia – $8500
Sergio is simply underpriced this week and I think his ownership should reflect that. Sergio should be in serious consideration in cash games, but actually warrants merit to fading in tournaments. As the DFS golf market becomes more efficient, some of these values plays that were once underowned, are now becoming close to too chalky to play in tournaments.
Others to have exposure to: Justin Thomas (GPP), Hideki Matsyuama (GPP), Henrik Stenson (Cash), Dustin Johnson (Cash), Jon Rahm (Cash)
Mid Tier – $8,000 – $7,500
Paul Casey – $7800
Both Paul Casey and Brandt Snedeker make the list due to their Vegas odds to pricing margin. Both have an implied chance to win of 2%, which far exceeds any other golfer in this range. Casey has strong recent form and has been trending up, with an 11th place finish at the Honda Classic. He also fits the model of an accurate ball striker, hitting 70.5% of GIR and 64.8% of fairways.
Brandt Snedeker – $7800
Brandt Snedeker may be a bit underowned here, coming off of a missed cut at the Genesis. While he doesn’t score as well in GIR or DA, as Casey, he still maintains a 2% chance to win. I’ll be looking to be over exposed to Snedeker if we can project his ownership at no more than 10%.
Martin Kaymer – $7500
Dropping down in price, Martin Kaymer also has an implied chance to win at 2%, thus making him one of the more chalky plays. Kaymer’s impressive recent form was backed up by a 4th place finish at the Honda Classic. I think this recency bias and his implied odds, will both contribute to his ownership. Kaymer has hit 70.7% of GIR and has an ADJ. RD. score of 69.4. Martin Kaymer should be considered in cash games.
Others to have exposure to: Patrick Reed (GPP), Phil Mickelson (Cash),
Bottom Tier – $7,500 – $6,500
Louis Oosthuizen – $7200
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Other than J.B. Holmes, Louis Oosthuizen should be the clear-cut chalk in this bottom tier. Oosthuizen checks a lot of boxes this week and most importantly, his Vegas implied odds to win are at 2.2%, much higher than anyone in this range. I’ll be rostering Oosthuizen in tournaments regardless of his ownership, given how he fits this course better than say, J.B. Holmes.
Bill Haas – $7000
Bill Haas has arguably been in the most impressive recent form, recording a top 20 finish in each of his last 6 outings. Haas doesn’t stand out in any specific categories, and struggles from a birdie making perspective, but this should hopefully keep his ownership down.
Others to have exposure to: Emiliano Grillo (GPP), Alexander Noren (GPP), Bernd Wiesberger (GPP), Roberto Castro (GPP), Joost Luiten (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (Cash/GPP), Tommy Fleetwood (GPP), Pablo Larrazabal (GPP), Lee Westwood (GPP), Jim Furyk (GPP), Thomas Pieters (GPP)
Best of luck in your DraftKings PGA contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR each day for all the latest fantasy sports news and analysis.