Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early AND Main slate which kicks off at 1:05 PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores spiked well above the season average as it took 285 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 29 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 247.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 29 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 247.5 points.
Wednesday Night’s Picks and Pivots were a mixed bag as our rosters scored 170 and 162 FanDuel points which depending on the contest were enough to get you over the cash line. We whiffed at pitcher by not rostering James Paxton but our Arizona/Seattle/Texas bats all put up double-digit points which carried us across the cash line in many of our contests!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
I know this is the pitcher section but let me start here – we have a small slate with a game in Coors Field that has a projected run total 3 runs higher than the next closest game. The game is going to be the absolute chalk (for good reason) but the prices are sky-high on these bats – the reality is, there is not really another “ideal” spot to pivot to for offense.
The reason I bring this up is that what you decide to do with Coors Field will directly impact your ability to pay up at starting pitcher and with Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez on the mound we have a very tough choice to make.
As much as I love the bats in Coors Field today and I was SO ready to eat the chalk – I am going to fade it again and one of the reasons is that I want to pay up for Carlos Martinez ($9,100) against Toronto.
Martinez was the guy I was ready to lock in yesterday but the early weather was brutal so I never even considered him. With the game delayed to today he is sitting there in the absolute perfect match-up against a Jays team in the bottom three in wOBA and slugging against right-handed pitchers, striking out at the 8th highest clip in MLB, is without Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki and loses the DH in an NL park.
The Blue Jays have been absolutely brutal this year against pitchers who feature the slider which happens to be one of Martinez’s main pitches and he is generating an absurd 43% K rate with that pitch this season. Martinez is using his slider to generate the most swinging strikes of any of his pitches (22% swinging strike rate) and as a large home favorite against a depleted line-up this is a spot where I think a double-digit K game is fully within reach!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Coors Field: It’s the clear top spot. It is not close.
However the prices make it simply impossible to stack them and I am not interested in playing one-off “chalk” plays on a short slate like this in GPP’s. I am going to fade it again today and hope that the damp/cool weather and the fact it is supposed to snow there tonight drives the offenses back to normal levels.
The last few days the hitting pivots in Arizona/Texas/Seattle have given us reason to play the fade but today is more about game theory for me when actually executing it.
Detroit Tigers: The one team that the analytics say we should target today on the Early Slate are the Detroit Tigers as they have one of the highest team totals outside of Coors Field and face off against Hisashi Iwakuma.
Iwakauma has a low strike out rate and gives up over 30% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate. The BvP numbers here support a full on stack as the Tigers have a .320 average against the right-hander in 105 plate appearances.
Ian Kinsler ($3,700) is 13 for 34 (.382 average) with 3 home runs in his career and can be paired with Tyler Collins ($2,400) at the top of the order for a mini-stack. Alex Avila ($2,700) is a great play at catcher who has 22+ FD points in each of his last two games while hitting a home run in each of those contests!
St. Louis Cardinals: The Cardinals actually have the highest team total of any early slate team outside of Coors as a result of facing Mat Latos who is arguably the worst pitcher on the entire slate!
Latos is giving up a 43% hard contact to right-handed bats this season and gave up 1.7 HR/9 to right-handed bats last season so we can attack with hitters from both sides of the plate. Matt Carpenter ($3,300) is one of the best value plays at 1B and can be paired with Jedd Gyorko ($3,100) who is the lone hot Cardinals bat right now with double-digit fantasy points in 3 of his last four games.
New York Mets versus R.A. Dickey: If we are fading the Coors bats and are looking for a low-owned high upside stack then the Mets power bats are the spot I am going to build around today. The Mets offense is ice-cold and most of the ownership will likely be on the Noah Syndergaard in this spot but I love the idea of stacking against a knuckleball pitcher in GPP play as when they are bad….they are REALLY bad!
BvP is important when looking at knuckleball pitchers as we can identify hitters who have had success against it and Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,100), Jay Bruce ($3,600) and Yoenis Cespedes ($3,900) are hitting over .300 against Dickey in his career over 50 at bats with 4 combined home runs.
The prices on the Mets bats remain high so I expect they will be largely ignored on this slate but this is a team that can hit home runs in bunches and with warmer temperatures in NY with the wind blowing out, today could be a day we see the big Mets power bats break out of their slump!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP lineup and Slate Overview – Early
P: Carlos Martinez ($9,100)
C: Alex Avila ($2,700)
1B: Matt Carpenter ($3,300)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,700)
3B: Jedd Gyorko ($3,100)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,100)
OF: Yoenis Cespedes ($3,900)
OF: Jay Bruce ($3,600)
OF: Tyler Collins ($2,400)
Slate Overview: Although I am not a fan of these smaller split slates on FanDuel I do think that this slate is interesting as I expect the majority of rosters will force in the Coors Field bats and look towards the Giants/Dodgers for cheap pitchers so it gives us an opportunity to really pivot from the field.
Obviously this strategy comes with risk but I think paying up for a stud pitcher and loading up on the Tigers/Mets bats gives us elite upside that will likely go completely overlooked on this slate.
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks – Main Slate
Chris Sale ($11,300) The four game “main slate” features the second half of the Toronto-St. Louis double-header which will likely mean we get some nice value plays today as most players will not suit up for both contests!
The Main Slate pitching is simple – you play Chris Sale. There is simply no other option I am even remotely interested in and Sale is coming into this game with back to back 60+ FanDuel points outings as he has double-digit strikeouts in each of his last three games.
The Yankees have not struck out much as a team this year but this is a player where you throw the metrics out the window and simply lock in the one of the best arms in all of baseball. Sale is a massive home favorite (-175) with the highest K upside of any pitcher going – do not get cute, simply lock him in and differentiate elsewhere!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks – Main
Arizona Diamondbacks: Arizona is at home tonight facing Jered Weaver.
Let me repeat that – Arizona is in Chase Field going up against Jered Weaver.
It is no wonder that the Diamondbacks have the highest team total of any team, including Coors, on today’s slate and it is the absolute first place we need to do when building our rosters tonight. Weaver has given up 7 home runs already this season over only 22 innings pitched, has a low strike-out rate and is facing a red-hot offense in an extreme hitters park.
Start your stack today with Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300), Jake Lamb ($3,800), David Peralta ($3,300) and look to mix in Chris Herrmann ($2,200) as a cheap punt catcher assuming he makes the lineup tonight!
San Diego Padres versus Taijuan Walker: This is the clear game to stack tonight as the Padres have the 4th highest run total on today’s slate sitting right behind Arizona and Coors Field so we want to load up on bats across the board in Chase Field.
The beauty of the Padres is that their hitters are cheap which makes a Chris Sale/Arizona stack completely doable without sacrificing much upside. Hunter Renfroe ($2,800) and Manuel Margot ($2,600) can be paired with Ryan Schimpf ($2,600) who finally broke out of his slump with a home run yesterday and you can do this for all under $3k each!
Walker is giving up 34% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate this season and has a career 1.3 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate so you can easily mix and match here and use the cheap price tags to build around Arizona and Chris Sale.
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview – Main
P: Chris Sale ($11,300)
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C: Chris Herrmann ($2,200)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,300)
2B: Ryan Schimpf ($2,600)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,800)
SS: Allen Cordoba ($2,000)
OF: David Peralta ($3,300)
OF: Hunter Renfroe ($2,800)
OF: Manuel Margot ($2,600)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate seems very cut and dry for me as I am simply locking in Chris Sale and stacking the Arizona/San Diego every single way I can. For as complex as the Early Slate was…the Main Slate is much more straight forward!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!