DraftKings MLB Picks For May 3

We have another 15 games tonight in the main DraftKings tournament. 11 of the pitchers cost $8,000 or more. Four of them are in the five digit salary range. Who is worth paying up for? Who will perform way above their price? Let’s take a look at some stats!

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The money line last night was way up at 149.35. Chris Sale had a lot to do with that. My Yankee stack lineup that I released on Twitter was well above with 162.2 DraftKings points. The other two finished below.

The winning lineup was way up at 243.4. He got another gem from Jose Quintana to go with Sale’s terrific game. He also had Aaron Judge(38), Brett Gardner(37), and Jay Bruce(36) to value him to a victory.

NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.

For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!

Next: DraftKings Early Lineup 1

P: Jake Arrieta ($10,900): Starting any pitcher at Wrigley can be a dangerous venture, but Arrieta has a career 2.24 ERA in the friendly confines in 50 career starts. The Phillies are hitting only .213 against Arrieta in 47 at bats and he has allowed just two solo home runs (to Daniel Nava and Aaron Altherr) as damage. What really has me leaning towards Arrieta is the 19 strikeouts in only 47 at bats. Arrieta could have a monster game tonight.

P: Drew Pomeranz ($8,100): Fellow lefty Chris Sale dominated the Orioles last night. While Pomeranz doesn’t have the kind of stuff that Sale does, he is still facing a team that all of the sudden can’t hit left handed pitching. The Orioles have only hit .220 against Pomeranz in 59 at bats with a staggering 19 strikeouts. That will alleviate any runs he may allow. Also, considering Kevin Gausman‘s struggles against the Red Sox, Pomeranz has a good chance at a win. That’s enough for me to take him over fireballer Julio Urias. Urias is also on a 90 pitch count, which really hurts his value when he is priced even higher than Pomeranz.

C: Alex Avila ($3,100): Avila has hit Carlos Carrasco hard. He is 5-15 with five walks, a double, a homer, three runs scored, and four RBI against him. His .472 wOBA is the best on Detroit’s team against Carrasco, so I expect him to be in the lineup since he is still hitting.

1B: Josh Bell ($3,300): Rookie Davis had the best start of his career on April 11th in Pittsburgh, giving up only one run on two hits in four innings. In his last start, he gave up seven runs in 2.2 innings at Milwaukee. The Pirate offense is starting to adjust to life without Starling Marte, and they are bludgeoning the Reds in Cincy. Davis isn’t going to know what hit him.

2B: Josh Harrison ($3,800): Harrison has had a big series so far back in his hometown. He has three homers in the last two games! Rookie Davis gave up only one homer to the Brewers. If he gives up one to Pittsburgh, I’m betting it’s to Harrison.

3B: Anthony Rendon ($3,800): Rendon is 2-4 with two walks, a double, and three runs scored against Robbie Ray. The Nationals are hitting .350 against Ray so far, but only Wilmer Difo and Chris Heisey have hit homers off of him. Bryce Harper has never faced him, but in lieu of the stack, I will go with righty most likely to hit a homer off of Ray. That would be Rendon.

SS: Tim Beckham ($2,900): Beckham is 0-2 lifetime against Adam Conley. This pick is based on nothing more than Beckham’s good start, steal potential, and facing a pitcher that got destroyed in his last start. Other Rays righties may be worth a stack if you so choose. It’s not as strong as a Pirates stack, but it will be less used than a Pittsburgh one.

OF: Adam Duvall ($4,300): Jameson Taillon has had a nice year so far, but Adam Duvall has done what he can to spoil it. He has homered off of Taillon twice, walked, and driven in four in eight at bats off of him. No one else has really been able to solve Taillon, but Duvall is worth using.

OF: Mookie Betts ($5,200): Betts has destroyed Kevin Gausman so far in his career. He is 10-23(.435) with two walks, three homers, eight runs scored, and seven RBI off of him already. He also has a .548 wOBA. Betts is worth paying for tonight.

OF: Andrew McCutchen ($4,500): McCutchen’s slow start seems to be a thing of the past. He has launched 17 career home runs, tied for his most in a road ballpark with Miller Park, in 255 career at bats there. He fits nicely in my Pirates stack against Rookie Davis.

Next: DraftKings Lineup 2

P: Jacob deGrom ($10,400): The Braves are only hitting .224 against deGrom in 107 at bats with only two homers and six runs scored. deGrom has an impressive 27 strikeouts in that span, which is a pretty good strikeout rate. The Mets have had a rough go of it lately, but I like deGrom to put in a strong start with a chance at a win against former teammate Bartolo Colon.

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P: Antonio Senzatela ($6,200): Senzatela is still somehow a secret, even though he has a 3-1 record with a 2.81 ERA in his first five major league starts. One of those was against the Padres at Coors Field on April 11th. He gave up two runs in seven innings while striking out five en route to a 22.2 DraftKings points game. I will take that for this price!

C: Russell Martin ($3,500): Martin is only 6-22(.273) against CC Sabathia in his career, but he has two walks, a homer, three runs scored, and two RBI against the veteran lefty. The Blue Jays aren’t hitting well, and CC is looking like he will put last year behind him. He is not the pitcher he once was, but he is a solid mid-range option tonight.

1B: Hanley Ramirez ($4,800): For as good as Kevin Gausman has been in his career, the Red Sox have knocked him around a little. They have eight homers off of him already! Hanley has two of those, three runs scored, three walks, and five RBI in just 13 at bats. He only has three hits, but he has done a lot of damage in those three hits.

2B: Robinson Cano ($4,200): Cano is 6-15 with a double, two homers, three runs scored, and three RBI against Ricky Nolasco. Cano is worth spening the extra money for tonight. However, with last night’s game going extra innings, watch out to see if any players sit tonight.

3B: Mike Moustakas ($3,700): Moustakas is 6-14(.429) with four walks, two homers, four runs scored, and five RBI already against Mike Pelfrey. If I trusted the Royals offense at all, I would stack them heavily against Pelfrey. However, I don’t. They have scored just 29 runs in the last 11 games. Moose is a go though! He is hitting .270 with seven home runs on the season.

SS: Trevor Story ($4,300): Jered Weaver is another pitcher worth stacking against. However, Weaver only gave up two runs (both solo homers) in a start at Coors Field on April 11th. Weaver has averaged two home runs allowed per start. I’m thinking that Story can get one this time around. The first time it was Carlos Gonzalez and Blackmon.

OF: Avisail Garcia ($3,600): Garcia only has three hits in 11 at bats against Nathan Karns, but all of them are home runs. For whatever reason, he seems to have Karns’ number. Don’t be surprised if Avi takes him deep again.

OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,300): Cruz is only 4-18 off of Ricky Nolasco, as surprising as that is, but all of the hits are for extra bases. He has a walk, a double, three homers, five runs scored, and four RBI against Nolasco in his career. Stacking Mariners is not a bad idea either. Seattle is hitting .295 with six homers and 18 runs against him.

OF: Charlie Blackmon ($4,900): Blackmon hit a solo home run off of Jered Weaver on April 11th. Even though they are at Petco Park, I still like Blackmon to take him deep again. Weaver is giving up quite a few home runs. He hasn’t made it through a start unscathed this year. He wont in this one either.

Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots

Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our NBA, PGA, and EPL picks!