Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kick off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 337 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 35 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.6 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 35 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.6 points.
Tuesday’s Picks and Pivots were built around Chris Sale who came through with another dominant performance and at only 20% ownership (which I cannot believe) we were set up well from the start. The Texas Rangers stack was widely overlooked (all players under 5% owned) and Mike Fiers stay true to form giving up 4 HR’s! Unfortunately for us only Delino Deshields was in our lineup as the other home runs came from Nomar Mazara, Jonathan Lucroy and Elvis Andrus. This is a great example of where the analytics were dead on when targeting Fiers but we just had the wrong combination of a Rangers stack!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
The Wednesday FanDuel MLB Slate is loaded at the top end of starting pitchers with three arms priced at $10k or higher. Jake Arrieta is the largest favorite on the slate (-200) taking on the Phillies and we came across an interesting nugget from Bryan Mears of FantasyLabs yesterday that pitchers that are favored at -200 or more are averaging 40 FanDuel points per start!
Jacob deGrom takes the hill against the Atlanta Braves and is coming off three straight double-digit strikeout games while sporting an insane 34.4% K rate which is second in all of baseball to only Chris Sale!
Both of these arms are certainly in play tonight in cash games and can also be used in tournaments but the arm I am finding myself going back to on this slate is Charlie Morton ($7,200) as he takes on the Texas Rangers.
Morton was featured in Picks and Pivots his last start when he dropped a 12 strikeout 51 FanDuel point gem against the Oakland Athletics and was largely ignored by DFS players as he went under 5% owned in GPP’s.
Tonight with a handful of aces on the mound and a perceived scary match-up with the Rangers, I expect that ownership to stay down again which makes him a great GPP target.
Morton has been a revelation this season and the turn around is absolutely legit! Morton has seen his average velocity on his four-seam fast ball spike to 93 MPH this season which is nearly 7 MPH higher than his mark last season and that uptick in velocity has driven a 25% K rate while seeing his walk rate cut in half!
Even with the increased velocity we are seeing the same ground ball dominant SP who has generated 50-60% of his outs via the ground ball in his career!
Tonight, Morton takes on a Rangers team that strikes out at a 22.4% clip against RHP which is 9th in all of baseball. The Texas bats also have a 41% ground ball rate against right-handed bats which sets up perfectly for Morton in this spot!
With the increased velocity, higher K rate and elite ground ball rate combined with the fact that Morton is the second highest favorite on the board at -170 makes him the perfect pitcher to build around on this slate who will likely continue to be overlooked.
If you are looking for a pivot play, Antonio Senzatela ($6,700) jumps off the page as a great value play in San Diego. Senzatela faced the Padres in Coors Field in his second start this season and put up 40 FanDuel points while throwing 7 innings and striking out 5.
Senzatela has put up 30 or more FanDuel points in four of his five starts and has pitched 7 innings in three of those outings. Tonight he takes on a Padres team that strikes out the most of any squad against right-handed pitching (26.1%) which gives us the opportunity to go after this upside at a bargain price!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Boston Red Sox versus RHP Kevin Gausman: The Red Sox take the field today with the highest implied team total on the slate and with the savings we get at SP tonight we can afford to spend up for some high-priced bats!
To put it politely, Gausman has struggled so far in the early season as he has surrendered 25 ER in 30 innings of work with a nearly 1:1 walk/K ratio while giving up 7 home runs. Right-handed bats have absolutely been punishing Gausman in the early going as they are sporting a .342 average, .431 wOBA and .613 slugging percentage while making 32% hard contact!
Over his last three starts Gausman is giving up an average of 6 runs per game and 2 home runs per contest which include a game against these very same Red Sox where he gave up 5 ER and 3 HR’s with a 3:4 walk/strikeout ratio.
Mookie Betts ($3,9000) has insane BvP against Gausman going 10 for 23 with 3 home runs in his career against the Orioles right-hander and makes for an elite play on this slate. Hanley Ramirez ($3,700) has two home runs over 13 at bats against Gausman and both Ramirez and Betts took Gausman deep the last time these teams faced off!
Seattle Mariners versus Ricky Nolasco: The Mariners have a middle of the road run projection on this slate so they may go a bit over looked but I love the stacking possibilities against RHP Ricky Nolasco.
Nolasco gives up 34% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate but actually exhibits reverse splits home run tendencies having given up 1.5 HR/9 to right-handed batters last season.
Nelson Cruz ($4,500) is firmly in play here today having gone 4 for 18 in his career against Nolasco with 3 of those 4 hits being for home runs! Robinson Cano ($4,000) is also in play with tremendous BvP numbers having gone 6 for 15 with 2 home runs against Nolasco!
You can round out a top of the order Mariners stack with Jean Segura ($3,600) and Ben Gamel ($2,200) who are batting in the top two spots ahead of Cano/Cruz.
The prices on the Mariners bats are VERY high tonight which I think will keep the ownership even more deflated than usual as most of the teams that opt to pay up at SP will not be able to afford these bats!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Charlie Morton ($7,200)
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C: Sandy Leon ($2,200)
1B: Hanley Ramirez ($3,700)
2B: Robinson Cano ($4,000)
3B: Miguel Sano ($3,700) Sano is simply red hot right now with home runs in four of his last five games with 28 or more FD points in each of those games!
SS: Jean Segura ($3,600)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,500)
OF: Ben Gamel ($2,200)
OF: Mookie Betts ($3,900)
Slate Overview: FanDuel continues to increase the pricing on hitters as the season moves along which is making the daily roster build that much tougher but I think we can use that to our advantage tonight. By paying down to a guy like Charlie Morton we can load up on high-priced, high upside bats that those rostering deGrom/Arrieta will have to forego!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!