Fantasy Baseball 2017: A Complete Guide On Who You Should Drop

Forget about trying to beat your old high school pal, the real matchup you need to win this fantasy baseball season is between you and the waiver wire.

The injury epidemic is everywhere, and with daily leagues becoming an exercise in patience and luck, making quick and calculated decisions could mean the difference between finishing first or last this season.

As if every player going down with a nick or a headache wasn’t enough, the long list of underperforming players who were supposed to have “tremendous upside” continues to grow. Indecisiveness can cost you as an owner, and if an opportunity presents itself on the waiver wire, it’s sometimes tough to know which way to act.

Fortunately, this list is here to help. Below are a bunch of guys you A) already should have dropped, B) should consider dropping, or C) the up-and-comers you might have to think about dropping in the future. Think of it as a guide if you will, because as May continues, the list is only going to grow.

You Should Have Already Dropped

Taylor Motter (Dropped in -16.2% of ESPN Leagues)

Motter was almost a must own a fortnight ago, but I think people pretty much knew we’d eventually end up here. He’s had only two hits since the 27th of April, and after such a hot start, his batted ball profile always left room for doubt. He’s struck out eight times since his last HR, and his 25.6% K-rate continues to climb upwards. In an unstable Mariners outfield, Motter’s not far away from losing playing time to rookie Ben Gamel.

Adrian Gonzalez (Dropped in -14.6% of ESPN Leagues)

Any player of Gonzalez’s caliber is in danger of a cut if he hasn’t hit a single HR by this point in time. To make matters worse, Gonzalez finds himself on the 10-Day DL with a back injury, and it sounds like he’s going to be out for an unestimated amount of time. Gonzalez is pretty much a must drop with Cody Bellinger going nuts, so there’s really no surprise here.

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Hisashi Iwakuma (Dropped in -4.2% of ESPN Leagues)

Iwakuma is supposed to make a start this week against the Blue Jays, but his knee injury is still a concern. I had few reasons for optimism this season, but Iwakuma’s average exit velocity numbers quickly smothered them. Iwakuma’s fastball, sinker, and cutter have all dropped a whopping 4 MPH, and with a .269 AVG with the bases empty, he’s simply unownable and almost un-streamable. That 4.35 ERA will continue to climb, so cut bait if you’re in the 30.6% of people who still own him.

Jarrod Dyson (Dropped in -3.5% of ESPN Leagues)

You picked up Dyson for the steals, and while he is tied for third in the league with 9 SBs, everything else has been pretty ordinary. He’s lost playing time to Motter and is missing at least one game a week, and with so many other red hot OF options available on the wire, it’s hard to hold on to a guy who gives you production in only a single category. Dyson has hit 7 RBIs, but his hard hit rate of 11.4% is an ugly and concerning number.

Fernando Rodney (Dropped in -5.6% of ESPN Leagues)

It’s a catch 22 with Rodney once again. He’s probably going to pile up the saves, but his command is so awful it’s impossible to want to own him. Rodney’s 10.80 ERA speaks for itself, and while he’s had a couple of good innings since his implosion against the Rockies last week, he’s still allowed a total of 24 base runners in the first month of the season. Rodney’s 1.97 WHIP probably isn’t going down anytime soon, and although some owners will hold on tight, he’s a ‘last resort’ kind of closer, at least until the Diamondbacks figure out what the heck is going on with their rotation.

Tommy Joseph (Dropped in -3.1% of ESPN Leagues)

One of the most misjudged players heading into the season was Tommy Joseph. I was on board given his guaranteed playing time, but his five extra-base hits to start the season is only the beginning of the mess. If you’re like me you drafted Joseph as a bench option, hoping for just ‘okay’ numbers. So far he hasn’t even done that, posting a 27.7% K-rate and a horrible habit of swinging at fastballs over the middle of the plate. Joseph is owned in only 12% of leagues now and is in the biggest slump of his life. On the flip side, his awful plate discipline along with his 9 BB’s still hasn’t talked the Phillies into promoting Rhys Hoskins from AAA, so who knows what will happen.

Francisco Rodriguez (Dropped in -2.7% of ESPN Leagues)

Expect that drop rate to increase as the week continues, because K-Rod’s disastrous Sunday night against the A’s has people running for the hills. Entering the ninth with a one-run lead, K-Rod allowed three runs and a walk off HR to Ryon Healy to earn his third loss of the season. It’s a fate we all saw coming after spotty command issues and a 2mph velocity drop in all of his pitches, and with his replacement, Justin Wilson looking like a sound option, go ahead and jump ship.

Kevin Kiermaier (Dropped in -11.5% of ESPN Leagues)

A classic case of a better real-life player than a fantasy baseball player if there ever was one. Kiermaier’s interest snowballed during the offseason, but somehow people forgot he’s simply a great defender who was made out to be more powerful than he actually is. The same could be said for Kevin Pillar right now, but as for Kiermaier, his 12HR’s last season haven’t converted to 2017, and instead, he’s striking out a career-high 25% of the time with only 6 RBI’s. Kiermaier is likely to have a period of brilliance at some point, but his groundball rate of 57.1% really limits his value.

Jason Hammel (Dropped in -3.8% of ESPN Leagues)

I’ll admit, I was a hanger-on-erer with Hammel right up until now. He’s at a disadvantage because the Royals’ offense offers zero run support, but there’s no hiding his 80.5% contact rate on all pitches thrown. Hammel has allowed 32 hits already this year, so it’s no wonder he’s only managed to reach the sixth inning twice. With some promising young options like Jose Berrios now available on the wire, Hammel is an easy drop.

Hunter Pence (Dropped in -7.3% of ESPN Leagues)

With a bunch of injuries behind him and (hopefully) a healthy season to look forward to, Pence’s optimism was short-lived. He’s hit a measly .254/.305/.339 so far with 2 HR’s in 131 plate appearances and looks nothing like the reliable outfielder he used to be. It seems like Pence isn’t seeing the ball very well at all, as he’s making contact with balls thrown inside the zone at a career low 81%. Against certain opponents, Pence stands a chance of putting up some okay numbers, but those opportunities are few and far between. Say goodbye to the days of Pence being a great backup bench player, and say hello to minimal veteran production.

You Should Consider Dropping…

Alex Bregman (Dropped in -5.4% of ESPN Leagues)

Whether or not we overrated Bregman is one thing, but it would be nice if he could decide what kind of player he wants to be. A season ago we were promised power and athleticism, but so far he’s hit 0 HR’s and struck out a bunch of times. On the other hand, he’s also shown some speed, but his 2 SB’s quickly put that into question. All of this looks like a player who hasn’t had a complete Spring, and as the days carry on, dropping Bregman for guys like Avisail Garcia and Aaron Altherr only seems more enticing. A slump? Bad luck? I really don’t know, but it’s certainly hard to stay patient with Bregman if this keeps up for another week or two.

Jackie Bradley Jr. (Dropped in -8,8% of ESPN Leagues)

You should have known going in that Jackie Bradley Jr. is streaky, but this? It’s a complete 180 from a season ago. So far in May Bradley hasn’t registered a single hit, and with the Red Sox outfield doing big things now that Andrew Benintendi is a mainstay, Bradley, and the bench might become long term friends. A lot of these struggles could be seen in his 2016 numbers, particularly his hitless postseason, his changed bat grip that was resulting in more strikeouts, and a rising soft contact rate (23.3%). Bradley Jr. is droppable right now, and the upside is hard to find. If anything, he’s a backup player to stash if one of your regulars winds up on the DL.

Jason Kipnis (Dropped in -5% of ESPN Leagues)

New year, same Jason Kipnis. While the DL hasn’t been kind to the 30-year old (he’s played in only 13 games this year) Kipnis’ slow start is the direct opposite of what we saw last season. In 2016 Kipnis finished the year nice and slow, but as for this season, his injury alongside his 29.2% K-rate seems to have finally pushed owners over the edge. Dropping Kipnis right now might be a bit extreme, and it’s probably worthwhile giving him until mid-May to turn it around. But if you’re desperate to unload him and his ugly .200 AVG, try and package him in a trade, the illusion of value still seems to be out there.

Troy Tulowitzki (Dropped in -2.9% of ESPN Leagues)

It didn’t take long for Tulo to wind up on the DL. He’s set to return to the lineup sometime this week from a hamstring injury, and while we saw a promising six-game hit streak during mid-April, locating the positives here is a tough task. It’s a small sample size, and staying patient on any Blue Jays hitter is difficult this season, but Tulo’s 9 K’s when falling behind in the count is troubling. He’s not going to be an everyday hitter anymore, and his hard contract rate continues to plummet (30.8%).

Mike Napoli (Dropped in -6.3% of ESPN Leagues)

Dropping a 34 HR hitter from a season ago is a lot like breaking up with a girl you really like. I even told people to hold onto Napoli a few weeks ago, but his progression into May has been nothing short of bad. The change of environment hasn’t done Napoli any favors, and his HR/FB rate has dropped over 6% following last season. Napoli was never a consistent day-to-day hitter, but he’s struck out 14 times with men on base and is swinging at a career high 29.1% of pitches outside of the zone. In a hitters ballpark, Napoli’s numbers should be better, and while we were warned about his batting average, no one expected it to sit at .139 two months in. Napoli was considered a draft room sleeper, but it might be time to jot him down as a bust.

Kevin Gausman (Dropped in -10.2% of ESPN Leagues)

It didn’t help that Gausman got caught up in the Red Sox/Orioles nonsense during his last start, but his ballooning ERA of 7.55 raises concerns during a season that held moderately high expectations. Gausman’s stuff has actually been good, his fastball is creating a high whiff rate of 20.12% per swing, and his velocity isn’t down at all. What has let Gausman down, though, is his situational stats. With men in scoring position he’s allowed 22 earned runs, and with a 61.9% contact rate on pitches inside the zone, it’s not hard to see why. Gausman could be dropped for other options right now like Jake Odorizzi and Lance Lynn, at least until he shows he can handle high-pressure situations in a more efficient manner.

Kendrys Morales (Dropped in -3.1% of ESPN Leagues)

Finding a decent DH man that will last the whole season is a tall order. Matt Holliday could easily replace Morales on your rosters right now, and it’s all due to his 26 strikeouts, declining flyball rate (30.4%) and his rising groundball rate (45.7%). To be fair, Morales did destroy 2 HR’s and 5 RBI’s two nights ago against the Rays, but his sporadic production is the main cause of frustration. Until his numbers seriously drop for a consistent amount of time, I’d hold off dropping him, though.

Next: Is Aaron Altherr Worth a Waiver Wire Add?

The Up-and-Comers

Below are a few others to consider now or further down the track:

It’s almost impossible to feature every guy worth dropping in a short, condensed list, and as I’m sure you’re aware, there’s probably a bunch of players that could belong up here.