Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 1:05 and 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 266.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 42 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.6 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 42 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.6 points.
Tuesday’s Picks and Pivots top line-up ended up with 176 FanDuel points and well above the cash line in all formats as our Houston/Tigers stacks combined with a 35 FD point effort from Charlie Morton was more than enough to outlast the competition!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY)
Yovani Gallardo ($6,700) If you are playing today’s Early Slate the pitching options are well, interesting (which is my nice way of saying awful). The reality is I expect most will glance at the starting pitching options then simply move on to offense and will figure out how many high-priced bats they can get with whatever arm works in that roster build.
There is not one single pitcher that stand outs to me on this slate so I am willing to take chances and the one pitcher I am willing to roll with on this Early Slate is Yovani Gallardo who will be pitching against the Phillies.
Gallardo is a slight road favorite in this one and what intrigues me the most with Gallardo is his ability to limit hard contact (less than 28% to hitters from both sides of the plate). Gallardo has struck out 7 batters in two of his last three starts and generates roughly a 50% ground ball rate with a miniscule 28% fly ball rate.
The combination of soft contact and ability to generate ground ball outs should be enough to allow him to navigate through the Phillies line-up in a homer friendly ballpark and he has flashed the K upside which makes him intriguing to me in GPP play!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Coors Field: We have a short slate with no pitcher priced above $8k so I expect the Coors offenses to be massively owned today – I am talking 25%+ on the key guys in both line-ups so in large field tournaments I am going to play the strategic fade and hope the 50 degree weather with the wind blowing in is enough to suppress the offenses here after a Tuesday double-header!
Houston Astros versus Jaime Garcia: Similar to yesterday the Astros have the highest team total outside of Coors Field so this is a great pivot play off Coors Field if you are looking to stack a high-upside offense that will be a fraction of the ownership as those bats in Colorado.
The Astros have a 4.96 run total and will be facing Jaime Garcia who so far this year has a 12% K rate, 11% walk rate and is giving up 36% hard contact to right-handed batters. Do you know who has many good right-handed batters? The Astros!
This is a spot for a full on stack and I will max out my Astros exposure here with Evan Gattis ($3,500), Jose Altuve ($3,900), Carlos Correa ($3,700) and George Springer ($3,600) who we can stack easily for under $4k per player!
Mets versus Matt Cain: The Mets offense will likely be completely over looked on this slate as the price points remain high and their run total is only middle of the pack on this slate but facing off against Matt Cain with a left-handed heavy line-up, this could be a great spot to get contrarian on this early slate!
Michael Conforto ($4,000) just continues to be a revelation for the Mets out of the lead-off spot and I am looking for a 1-3 order stack here with T.J. Rivera ($2,800) and Jay Bruce ($3,900). Rivera is now first base eligible so the ownership will be single digits with so many people looking to pay up for bigger names but all he has done is hit since he moves into that spot and batting between two power bats like Conforto/Bruce, this could be the under the radar stack that separates you today!
UPDATE: Conforto is OUT today. Reyes has moved up to the lead-off spot which gives us a nice Reyes-Rivera-Bruce 1-2-3 stack!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview: EARLY
P: Yovani Gallardo ($6,700)
C: Evan Gattis ($3,500)
1B: T.J. Rivera ($2,800)
2B: Jose Altuve ($3,900)
3B: Jose Reyes ($2,900)
SS: Carlos Correa ($3,700)
OF: George Springer ($3,600)
OF: Michael Conforto ($4,000)
OF: Jay Bruce ($3,900)
Slate Overview: Thankfully we only have a handful of tournaments on FanDuel on this early slate to limit our entry possibilities but I think this is a great slate to play and take some off the wall shots that you would not normally.
The pitching is brutal on this slate so the opportunity cost of taking a chance on a pitcher is about as low as it will ever be. Offensively I expect Coors/Houston to be the most popular spots so I think it makes sense to grab one stack from there and then build in a team like the Mets who I expect will have 10% or less ownership!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks
Kenta Maeda ($8,700) The Main Slate pitching options are absolutely loaded with four top end arms all priced over $10k, however dropping down in price tonight to Dodgers starter Kenta Maeda allows us to chase similar upside at a substantial discount.
Maeda will get a home start tonight against the Pittsburgh Pirates who have the lowest implied run total (3.06) on the slate and Maeda is a massive -220 favorite which is the largest such metric on the board!
Maeda comes into this contest off back to back 8 strikeout performances against the Phillies and Padres and faces a Pirates team tonight that is bottom three in baseball in runs scored and team ISO against right-handed pitching.
If you are looking for a pivot in the same price range, I would look at Lance Lynn ($8,900) who has been one of the steadiest DFS producers so far this season and will likely be overlooked against the Marlins.
Lynn comes into tonight’s game with 40 or more FanDuel points in four straight outings, going at least 6 innings in each start while racking up 4 straight wins/quality starts. Lynn is actually a slight (-100) road favorite in this contest and although it would be easy to dismiss his early season success it is important to remember that this is a guy who pitched to a 2.84 ERA prior to his Tommy John Surgery in 2015!
If you are looking for help picking your top SP on tonight’s FanDuel MLB slate than dive into Matt Rogers Daily Fantasy Pitcher Breakdown to find the arm you should roster!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks – Main
Arizona Diamondbacks versus LHP Matt Boyd: Whenever the Diamondbacks are at home in Chase Field they become one of my favorite DFS stacks and tonight with a left-hander on the mound, this is a must play spot for me!
Arizona has a 5.1 run total which is the highest on the main slate and will face a fly ball pitcher giving up 40% hard contact to right-handed hitters! Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600), A.J. Pollock ($4,000), Yasmany Tomas ($3,500) and Chris Owings ($3,200) are all in play as a likely 1-4 Arizona stack against a southpaw tonight.
What I love about Arizona is that they not only lead the league in runs scored at home but they also lead the league in steals when playing at home so this is a team capable of racking up fantasy points in multiple ways and I will have 100% exposure to them tonight!
Tampa Bay Rays versus Jason Hammel: The Rays were a popular secondary stack yesterday for those looking to afford Coors Field and tonight I think we can go back to the well if we are looking to build around an Arizona stack.
The Rays will face Jason Hammell who gave up 32% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate last season. The Rays bats come at a significant discount as we can lock in guys like Evan Longoria ($3,000), Brad Miller ($2,700), Corey Dickerson ($3,300) and Colby Rasmus ($2,700) who are all coming off solid games on Tuesday and should be in a similar favorable environment tonight!
Texas Rangers vs Luis Perdomo: If you are looking for another combination to play along side the Arizona bats today, the Rangers left-handers are absolutely in play. Perdomo in his career is giving up a 38.9% hard contact rate and 1.95 HR/9 to LHB which puts guys like Rougned Odor ($2,900) and Joey Gallo ($3,800) firmly in play as a mini-stack!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview: Main
P: Kenta Maeda ($8,700)
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C: 2K Punt Option
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600)
2B: Brad Miller ($2,700)
3B: Evan Longoria ($3,000)
SS: Chris Owings ($3,200)
OF: A.J. Pollock ($4,000)
OF: Yasmany Tomas ($3,500)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,300)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is definitely the one to play if you like pitching as we have at least 5 legit “safe” options to choose from. The hitting for me boils down to getting Chase Field exposure first and then trying to find a secondary stack that works within your roster build.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!