DraftKings Main MLB Picks For May 11
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings Main MLB Picks For May 11
Nine of the 11 games make up the main DraftKings tournament tonight. We have three pitchers priced over $10,500, and another three at $8,500 or more. Do we dare drop below those six? Let’s check some stats and find out! The games in Washington and Texas are threatened by rain, so make sure to watch our Twitter feed for any delays and postponements!
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The money line last night was up a bit last night to 127.1. My lineups were derailed by poor pitching performances form Lance Lynn, Stephen Strasburg, and Danny Salazar.
The winning lineup was down nearly ten points to 213.15 DraftKings points. He hit big on Chris Archer, and had a great second pitcher in Kenta Maeda. Big games from Nick Ahmed, Colby Rasmus, and the rest of his Diamonbacks stack took down the top prize.
NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players. Check out this post from Matt McGarvey for great tips about whether to use a hot player in DFS or not.
For you first time players, if you would like $10 worth of free entry tickets, use this link for the referral bonus! Then continue reading for tips on how to turn that $10 into more!
Next: DraftKings Main Lineup 1
P: Michael Fulmer ($10,500): The Angels are hitting just .115 against Fulmer in 26 at bats with only one run and eight strikeouts. There is a strong possibility that Mike Trout wont return tonight. That makes a huge hole in an already impotent lineup. Fulmer could be in for another big game here. However, Trout accounted for four of those eight strikeouts.
P: Dylan Bundy ($7,500): The Nationals are only hitting .176 against Bundy in 17 at bats so far. He pitched very well against them last year, and all of the key components of the Nationals offense were in that game. Anthony Rendon hit a home run off of him, which was about the only damage done to Bundy. A.J. Cole has a chance to be a star, but he has struggled early on in his major league career. I like Bundy’s chances for a win here, and he could strike out enough batters to mitigate any runs allowed.
C: Buster Posey ($3,800): Posey is 7-15(.467) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI in his career against Bronson Arroyo. He is off to another great start this year, and put up seven DraftKings points on Arroyo in his last start. He has the potential for more at home tonight considering how poorly Arroyo has pitched on the road.
1B: Brandon Belt ($3,700): Belt is 6-14(.429) with two walks, a steal, and two solo homers in his career against Bronson Arroyo. In Arroyo’s two road starts this year, he has actually posted negative DraftKings points in both of them. Take a look at the scoring system. It is hard to get negatives for a starting pitcher. Don’t be surprised if he lays another egg.
2B: Darwin Barney ($2,900): Barney is a cheap starter against an unproven rookie. I want to pay up for pitching here, and a couple of big hitters, so I am putting together a Blue Jays stack against De Jong.
3B: Nolan Arenado ($5,300): Arenado is 6-12 with two doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and four RBI in his career against Hyun-Jin Ryu. There aren’t a lot of Rockies right handers to go around, and if I could afford Ian Desmond I would use him as well. It could be a slugfest at Coors Field tonight.
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,600): Michael Pineda has had a really good year so far, but Correa has hit him really hard. Correa is 5-8 with a walk, two doubles, two homers, four runs scored, and two RBI off of Pineda in his career so far. Pineda is likely overpriced today with a tough pitching matchup and with with way the Yankees are hitting right now.
OF: Adam Duvall ($4,000): The Reds rang up ten runs on Ty Blach in Cincinnati on Saturday. He draws the Reds again, but is should be smoother sailing for him at home. That said, Duvall has a lot of power and homered off of him last week. I will take the chance that he does it again.
OF: Jose Bautista ($4,000): Bautista finally seems to coming around after a terrible April. He hit a three run homer last night against the Mariners. He now has average eight DraftKings points per game over the last ten games. That is well above his current season average of 5.7.
OF: Kevin Pillar ($3,700): Pillar is batting leadoff in a patchwork lineup that sometimes has problems scoring runs. I don’t think that will be much of an issue tonight against Chase De Jong as his 6.75 ERA in 13.1 innings pitched this season.
Next: DraftKings Main Lineup 2
P: Marco Estrada ($8,500): Estrada has held the Mariners to a .229 average over 48 at bats with only one homer and four runs. The worst part is that he has only run up two batters, both Jarrod Dyson, in those 48 at bats. I would expect those numbers to go up tonight. He also has a great chance at a win with rookie Chase De Jong on the hill for Seattle.
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P: Martin Perez ($6,000): Perez is a bit of a wild card here. The Padres get a park upgrade here, but they still can’t hit left handed pitching, and they strike out a lot against southpaws. It’s either him or Phil Hughes in my Rockies stack lineup, and I just don’t know if I trust Hughes. He has pitched well against the White Sox, but I think I’m going to roll the dice with Perez.
C: Matt Wieters ($3,400): Wieters has had a big series against his former team. Dylan Bundy has been outstanding this year, and in his career against the Nationals so far. That said, Wieters may know a few things from catching Bundy. He may be the one National that can get to him.
1B: Ian Desmond($4,800): All right handed Rockies hitters are in play tonight against Hyun-Jin Ryu as well. Desmond has never faced Ryu before, but I have a feeling that he will like what he sees.
2B: Jonathan Schoop ($3,500): Schoop has only faced A.J. Cole three times, but his one hit off of him was a solo home run. If I could trust that Brian Dozier was fully healthy, I might use him since he destroys lefties, but I have a feeling that the Orioles could plate a lot of runs tonight.
3B: Justin Turner ($5,100): Tyler Anderson was a Coors Field warrior last year, posting an ERA over a run better at home than on the road. He is doing the same thing this year, but when your season ERA is 6.69, that doesn’t mean much. Anderson still has a bloated 5.40 ERA, and the Dodgers are starting to hit. Turner is 7-12(.583) with a walk, two doubles, a homer, two runs scored, and four RBI already in his career against Tyler Anderson. He has the best stats against Anderson of any Dodger so far. Look for him to keep it up tonight.
SS: Corey Seager ($5,400): Seager is no slouch against the struggling Anderson either. He is 5-15 with a walk, a triple, a homer, three runs scored, and four RBI off of Anderson. One of the more surprising splits you will see about Anderson is his home run splits. He has given up seven homers on the road in four games to only two at home in three games. I think that evens out a bit tonight.
OF: Kike Hernandez ($3,800): You will never see Hernandez this expensive again. Does he deserve it? Maybe, considering the way he hits left handed pitching. However, Hernandez is only 2-11 against Anderson, but both hits are for extra bases. He has a double, a triple, three walks, two runs scored, and a RBI off of him.
OF: Yasiel Puig ($5,000): It’s righty stack day at Coors Field. Puig has struggled against Anderson so far, going just 1-8 with a RBI, but Anderson isn’t the same pitcher as he was last year. At least not yet.
OF: George Springer ($4,400): Springer is only 3-11 in his career against Michael Pineda, but two of those hits are home runs and he has driven in five. I’m chasing the homers here. The past history suggests that Springer is one of the better bets tonight.
Next: FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball, along with our NBA, PGA, and EPL picks!