DraftKings EPL Soccer Daily Picks – May 13 2017
By David Gate
Welcome back to our DraftKings EPL soccer DFS column for the penultimate weekend of Premier League action. We have a four game slate on Saturday to break down for you with the best tips, picks and analysis to cash in DraftKings daily fantasy soccer!
Our lineups from last weekend were derailed by Hull’s surprise defeat to already relegated Sunderland. That result put the North East club in big trouble and opened the door for Swansea to seal their survival in the Premier League.
With so much unpredictability I want to go all in on building high upside GPP lines. The game I am going to target most is Bournemouth v Burnley. The projected highest scoring game is Stoke v Arsenal but I think the Gunner’s dramatically improved defense will have people chasing the wrong the game. The other team I love this week is Swansea who have an elite matchup with Sunderland and getting a win will be a huge boon to their chances of staying up.
The team sheets come out an hour before kick off 9:00am ET and I’ll be tweeting out changes and surprises. You can follow me @DavidGateSports for updates and @FantasyCPR for the lineups. Let’s look at the slate!
The best EPL DFS lineups have 3x value to $1k of DraftKings soccer budget. These lineups are for GPP play and not cash. Because of the scoring in soccer DFS that means chasing goals and assists wherever you can find them. It often means looking in places where others won’t rather than just load up with the highest priced strikers on the slate. There is also an article for FanDuel here.
DraftKings EPL DFS Goalkeepers
A much improving Arsenal defense makes Petr Cech (5600) a great option this week. His matchup against Stoke isn’t ideal but he has kept 3 clean sheets in the last 4 games and made 3 or 4 saves in each game also. He is the safest GK on the slate for both the clean sheet and win bonus. Stoke have the 15th ranked offense and have nothing to play for but home pride. Arsenal should be able to knuckle down and grind out a low scoring win in this game.
I am expecting a very low scoring game at Middlesbrough so both Fraser Forster (5200) and Brad Guzan (4300) are solid picks for clean sheets. Offense has been a problem for Boro all season and Southampton are in their own attacking dip. They are both nice plays to grab the clean sheet bonus relative to their prices.
It’s worth noting Artur Boruc (5400) also as he has a good home matchup against Burnley. the Clarets have a terrible away record with only one win and 12 goals scored in 18 games. The red flag in this game is Bournemouth’s own inability to defend. I put them at high chance for a win bonus and a long chance for a clean sheet.
DraftKings EPL DFS Defenders
A player with a high upside is Hector Bellerin (4500) who came in for the injured Oxlade-Chamberlain on Wednesday against Southampton. The Arsenal 3-5-2 formation gives him huge license to get forward. His price has fallen since leaving the side and is sitting at nice price with a fair shot and getting an assist or creating multiple chances with lots of crosses. To stack GK and defenders to get all the clean sheet bonuses I want to get a third Arsenal player in. My choice is Shkodran Mustafi (3400). He has not played much in the new system but took the central role against Southampton on Wednesday. If I am using a center back in a 3-man defense I always want the central one as they are more likely to be busy.
On the other side Geoff Cameron (3600) is used in midfield against the top teams. This is the dream matchup for him as Arsenal play so much if their game in the midfield with high possession giving Cameron plenty of opportunity to get those tackles and interceptions. I love any player that is playing higher up the field than their designation.
One of the most consistent DraftKings EPL defenders is Burnley’s Matthew Lowton (3900). He gets fair production from both attacking and defensive stats making him a high floor/low ceiling option every week. When I am building heavy attacking stacks I like to have reliable defenders to give a safe floor for my lineups.
DraftKings EPL DFS Midfielders
My Saturday lineups are going to revolve around two midfielders; the two surest bets on the slate. My first midfield lock this week is Gylfi Sigurdsson (10200) who is playing in a must win game at Sunderland. He is the safest pick on any slate. He is a lock each week for double-digit DraftKings EPL points. The trouble is that makes him chalky. I like that his price is over $10k as I’m hoping that scares away people using Alexis Sanchez or Arsenal stacks. High floor, great matchup, must win game. What is there to think about? Last time out against Sunderland? A goal, an assist and 30+ DraftKings EPL points. Yeah, I’m not fading Gylfi this week.
As I am looking to build cheaper attacking stacks around Bournemouth, Burnley and Swansea I have plenty of budget left over to use Alexis Sanchez (10000). This is pick is more about safety and convenience than anything else. He will almost certainly get double digits and has a fair chance for more with a goal or an assist. Even though this game is projected as the highest scoring game Arsenal have not been firing on all cylinders and are on a short week. I feel fine with Sanchez in my lineup but I’m really looking for an option with lower ownership to pair with Sigurdsson.
The one player I am looking to swap Sanchez for is Robbie Brady (6300). In his last two starts he had 15 & 21 DraftKings points. Burnley has shifted to two big strikers and are pumping the ball forward towards them at every opportunity. If he starts this week I will swap out Sanchez and upgrade a defender and not worry about $1k or so left over budget.
DraftKings EPL DFS Forwards
I will be looking to the Bournemouth v Burnley game for my forwards. Joshua King (8300) is the most in form striker in the league and his matchup is worthy of his high price. Again my only concern here is high ownership. A four game slate is likely to be chalky however you play it but I especially with the forward position on DraftKings. You can fit 5 true forwards in your lineup if you wish in a scoring system that rewards goals. King is a cash game lock for me and I’ll have in one GPP line and fade in the other.
Burnley are all in on the long ball game with Ashely Barnes (4500) and Sam Vokes (5200) who have combined for 3 goals and an assist in the last two games. They face a leaky Bournemouth back line and I like them both this week. I’m hoping I can get them paired with Robbie Brady and I can land two or more assist/goal combos from this stack.
The only other forwards I’m interested in are Fernando Llorente (6100) and Jordan Ayew (4500) who are in that must win game at Sunderland. I will have a line with a heavy Swansea stack as they will certainly get their chances.
DraftKings EPL DFS Lineups
Lineup 1 – Bournemouth/Burnley stack
GK: Guzan – Middlesbrough
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DEF: Cameron – Stoke
DEF: Lowton – Burnley
MID: Sigurdsson – Swansea
MlD: Sanchez – Arsenal (swap for Brady – Burnley if he starts)
FWD: Barnes – Burnley
FWD: Vokes – Burnley
UTIL: King – Bournemouth
Lineup 2 – Swansea/Arsenal stack
GK: Cech – Arsenal
DEF: Bellerin – Arsenal
DEF: Mustafi – Arsenal
MID: Sigurdsson – Swansea
MlD: Sanchez – Arsenal
FWD: Llorente – Swansea
FWD: Ayew – Swansea
UTIL: Barnes – Burnley
Best of luck in your FanDuel EPL contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!