Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 247.7 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 44 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.5 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 44 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.5 points.
Thursday Night’s Picks and Pivots line-up was built around the upside of Zack Greinke who even though he was pitching in Chase Field, had the elite strikeout upside we covet in GPP play. Greinke was only 12% owned in GPP’s and delivered a dominant 11 strikeout 64 FanDuel point performance which was the cornerstone of a profitable night. The Arizona bats were quiet (only 2 runs) but we got solid contributions from Jake Lamb/David Peralta and the Texas bats which helped push us over the cash line!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitching Picks
Clayton Kershaw ($9,800) at Colorado: As I went through each pitching option on this slate tonight I would mark down the pros/cons of each arm and in every single case I found a “red flag” that made me wary of using them as my sole pitcher on FanDuel. Whether it was the lack of strikeout upside or a difficult match-up there is not a single pitcher I feel like is a lock and load tonight which feels very similar to last night’s slate.
Why do I bring that up? During yesterday’s research I had a similar feeling but ended up swinging back to Zack Greinke as the clear highest strikeout arm on the slate even though he was pitching in Chase Field.
On today’s slate we have Clayton Kershaw as the top priced arm pitching in Coors Field and my initial reaction was – Kershaw has awful career numbers in Colorado as was roughed up against them earlier this season (only 24 FD points).
But think about it for a second – we have a slate with no clear pitching options, the best pitcher in all of baseball on the slate at under $10k and add in the fact that Kershaw is a -200 favorite ON THE ROAD.
The advanced metrics all show that Kershaw is the same dominant pitcher we have become accustomed to with a 28% k rate and 3% walk rate this season. I understand the match-up in Coors Field will keep some away but in tournaments we have the potential to get Clayton Kershaw for under $10k at reduced ownership – I am all in tonight!
Normally I will give you a pivot play in this spot and although I do love Lance McCullers as a GPP play, I have a feeling he will be highly popular. The other guy I think will be a go-to for many is Danny Duffy against the Baltimore Orioles but I am staying far away!
The Orioles strike out at a 25% clip against LHP this season which is a top 5 mark in all of baseball and Duffy is a an arm that most DFS players associate with strikeouts. However the numbers this year show a striking difference to the pitcher we have been used to seeing in prior years as Duffy has seen his K rate drop 10% to 16% this season.
In addition, where in past year’s Duffy threw his fastball twice as often as any other pitch, generating a 11% swinging strike rate at an average velocity of 95 mph he has seen the velocity drop 3 mph this season and has thrown his fastball the least of any of his “core” four pitches at only a 4% swinging strike rate.
I expect a player like Duffy to be popular tonight (as he has crazy good PvB as well) but there is something different about Duffy this year that may lead him to disappoint in this spot.
As I opened with – I can find warts on every single pitcher tonight and yet all the while I have the best pitcher in baseball staring at me for under $10k as a massive -200 road favorite. Let others get cute – stick with the ace and lock in Kershaw!
If you are looking for a pivot off Kershaw tonight, then take a look at Matt Rogers Daily Fantasy Pitcher Breakdown to help you land on the right pitcher for your roster build!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Oakland and Texas: Even with games in Coors Field and Chase Field, the highest opening total on the board can be found in Texas as the A’s and Rangers square off.
If you are paying up for Kershaw tonight you will have roughly $3.1k per batter to fill out your roster and this game is the perfect stacking option as the price points for the key bats are all perfectly within this range.
The Rangers bats get to face Jesse Hahn, a low strikeout pitcher who gives up 1.2 HR/9 to left-handed batters with a 33% hard contact rate. Rougned Odor ($3,000) and Nomar Mazara ($3,300) make for elite left-handed targets and can be combined with Elvis Andrus ($2,800) who continues to hit in the middle of the order for the Rangers at a tough to fill SS position.
Although the Oakland “stack” is not something I necessarily think we need tonight, Khris Davis ($3,200) is one of my absolute favorite one-off plays as he has massive power upside relative to this price. Davis will face off against Andrew Cashner who in his career is a low-strikeout arm that surrenders hard hit contact over 30% and is susceptible to the home run. Davis has multi-home run upside here in an elite hitting environment and the price is flat-out too cheap!
Arizona left-handed bats in Chase Field: Another day of Chase Field baseball and another day where the left-handed bats for Arizona are simply too cheap. Arizona faces off against Tyler Glasnow (RHP) who this year has really struggled with his control as evidenced by his massive 14% walk rate and has given up a 1.64 HR/9 rate to left-handed bats this season.
Jake Lamb ($3,500) and David Peralta ($2,900) are both in elite spots at the top of the Arizona order and the price points are simply too cheap being in Chase Field!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Clayton Kershaw ($9,800)
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C: Chris Hermann ($2,100)
1B: Eric Thames ($4,400) Thames makes for an elite one-off play today as he gets a home start against Matt Harvey. As a Mets fan it has been brutal to watch Harvey pitch this year as he is simply getting pummeled by left-handed hitters and Thames has the ability to win us a slate with his home run power!
2B: Rougned Odor ($3,000)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($2,800)
3B: Jake Lamb ($3,500)
OF: David Peralta ($2,900)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,200)
OF: Nomar Mazara ($3,300)
Slate Overview: It will be interesting to see how the rest of the DFS industry reacts throughout the day as I expect most will find ways to pivot off Kershaw in Coors Field and frankly I hope that is the case as I am hopeful to get the best pitcher in baseball at reduced ownership. As usual we will fade the hitters in Coors Field and look elsewhere for bats with Texas/Oakland and Arizona in prime spots for big nights.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests today and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!