Brewers Bullpen Shuffle: What You Need to Know Going Forward

The Milwaukee Brewers’ bullpen has quickly fallen into chaos overnight following a disastrous outing from closer Neftali Feliz earlier this week. If you’re a fantasy baseball owner, there’s plenty you need to know about the Brewers’ bullpen.

Dealing with a gazillion players hitting the DL every day is one thing, but if you thought you drafted a stable and reliable bullpen back in March, well, think again.

In the month of May, there’s already been plenty of bullpen shuffling. By my count, six teams have changed their respective closers due to performance or injury, and as if keeping up with the Orioles or Giants’ rotation hasn’t been tricky enough this week, here comes the Milwaukee Brewers with their own two cents.

The word “concerning” is probably an understatement here, because we’ve known for some time that the Brewers’ bullpen has plenty of question marks. On Thursday night Neftali Feliz gave up a game winning HR to Mookie Betts in the 9th, and on Friday, manager Craig Counsell finally decided to pull him from the closer role.

For number’s sake, this isn’t the first time Feliz has looked ordinary. He’s allowed 5 HR’s in 16 innings of work, and although he seemed like the Brewers’ best choice at closer entering the season, his 0-4 win/loss record says differently.

To those at home, this news affects 50% of you, because that’s how many people own Feliz in standard ESPN leagues. Thursday’s woes aside for one moment, there is one other person you’ll want to concern yourself with in this mess, and that’s Feliz’s replacement, Corey Knebel.

Since Feliz’s problems have carried on from season to season, Knebel was practically a sure thing to receive the nod eventually. In 19 games his stuff has looked flawless, he’s allowed only 10 hits and 2 ER’s all year, and his four-seam fastball is one of the nastiest in the league.

So with that said, it should all seem obvious now. Add Knebel, drop Feliz, and reap the benefits, right? That is what should happen. Unfortunately, the beast of the Brewers’ bullpen still might have a few twists and turns ahead for us.

To keep it short, there are four things you need to consider when it comes to owning, or investing in, the Brewers’ bullpen.

1. Luck

The stats don’t lie, the Brewers’ pitching staff as a whole hasn’t been that bad. They rank 17th in the league in K/9, 18th in HR/9, and 12th in LOB% – overall they’re a pretty middle of the pack rotation, who have so far accounted for a 4.16 ERA.

What really stands out with the Brewers, though, is their bad luck at home this season. They’ve given up the second most runs (107) in all of baseball, and although that could be attested to the hitter-friendly confines of Miller Park, the Brewers’ 10.5% walk rate at home says otherwise.

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Aside from the team as a whole, Feliz himself was unlucky. For a pitcher that surrendered 12 runs in 18 games, it might be a surprise to hear that Feliz’s velocity hasn’t dropped at all. In fact, his average release speed on his change-up (91.68 MPH) is up two miles per hour from a season ago, and even his flaming fastball still sits at a solid 97 MPH.

Other aspects of Feliz’s game have also been on the unfortunate end of bad luck. He’s limited his hard contact rate from 37% a season ago all the way down to 29.5%, and hitters are also making a lot less contact with pitches Feliz throws outside of the zone. The most telling stat, however, is with men in scoring position, as Feliz has allowed 9 ER’s and 3 HR’s, even though he’s allowed only four total hits in that situation.

To say that Feliz’s poor performance came entirely down to bad luck would be ridiculous. Knebel should show better pitch selection, but there is certainly something funny going on with the Brewers’ arms.

2. Knebel’s Inexperience in the Closer Role

Knebel was listed as the Brewers’ closer during the offseason, but his overall inexperience in the role is slightly concerning. Between last season and 2017 he’s thrown only 50 total innings, and while his stuff has looked pretty, he still has a lot to learn about dealing with the pressure of potentially saving or winning a game in a tight situation.

Knebel’s LOB % of 64.7% last season was the lowest of his career, and in high leverage situations he gave up a crooked .321 AVG and 6 HR’s. None of this is to say that Knebel isn’t an entirely different pitcher this season, but his sample size is limited and there are a large group of experienced hitters he is yet to face.

3. Is Trading Knebel Part of the Brewers’ Plans?

The Brewers aren’t a contending team this season, and when the trade deadline rolls around in June, there’s no doubt they will be looking to move some of their more established talents for younger prospects to boost their farm system.

If Knebel shows that he is indeed a reliable long-term replacement for Feliz, there is a chance he could be easy trade bait for opposing buyers. Either way, this may not affect his fantasy value, but it is something to consider when the deadline nears.

4. Closer By Committee? How Many Opportunities Will Knebel Receive?

To answer the first part of the question, yes, the Brewers are a closer by committee, for now. General manager Craig Counsell reportedly wants to “mix things up” and simply give Feliz a “break” over the next few weeks, so it doesn’t sound like anything is set in stone.

Counsell’s cryptic words do make it sound like Feliz will be given another closing opportunity sometime soon, though, and if that’s the case, let the fight begin between Knebel and a fellow bullpen arm, Jacob Barnes.

The good news here is that Barnes was rocked by the Mets on Friday night, surrendering 2 ER’s and a handful of hits in just 0.2 innings work. It doesn’t bode well for the 27-year old, and it’s likely we see Knebel in action over the weekend with the potential of Feliz in the setup role.

Next: Is Jayson Werth Your Time?

The Brewers bullpen has quickly become a problem overnight, and with Feliz’s leadership being overturned, Knebel certainly is a sleeper you’ll want to add to get the advantage on your opponents.

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