May 4, 2017; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (11) bats against the Arizona Diamondbacks in the second inning during a game at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Patrick McDermott-USA TODAY Sports /
What? It’s Week 7 already, and you’re not in first place!? If this is you, it might be time to sell, it might be time to buy, and if none of that works, it might be time to consider different hobbies this fantasy baseball season.
So 20% of the baseball season is done, and about 20% of our original rosters are left standing. How awesome.
I’m exaggerating obviously, but it’s hard not to be a fantasy baseball pessimist this year. I’m told year after year that May is supposed to be the time when the puzzle starts to fit together and things make sense, but this season, well, who even knows what to make of the past six weeks.
Really, you couldn’t make this stuff. Erick Aybar has more HR’s than Trea Turner, Yonder Alonso is a thing, Joey Gallo actually has a job, and a 34-year old Jason Vargas leads the league with a 1.01 ERA. It’s complete chaos, and if you’re already wondering how you are going to survive another six months of this blind rollercoaster ride, join the club because nothing is coming easy this season.
One of the biggest things I’ve had a tough time with in my leagues is determining players’ value thanks to injuries and slow starts. The 10-day DL doesn’t help you out here, but it’s hard to execute trades if you don’t know exactly what you’re selling and exactly what you’re getting back, especially in terms of future value and performance.
For the three people who actually read my scribblings, you’re in luck, because over the past fortnight I’ve proposed a bunch of crappy trades that have been knocked back within minutes and a handful of good ones that have satisfied both sides.
What I’m trying to say, is that slowly, I’ve gauged the value of some of this seasons’ biggest question mark players, and can finally start to say with 95% certainty (the other 5% covers me if I’m wrong), who you should sell, and who you should buy this season.
Sell
Maikel Franco: In the last 14-days Franco has 7 hits and an unsightly 12 strikeouts. His BA has plummeted to a career low .175, and while the Phillies continue to throw games away and fall down the standings, Franco to is slipping down the Phillies’ batting order. His swing looks rigid and he’s seeing pitches nearly two days after they’re thrown. None of this can be blamed on an unlucky .214 BABIP either, so expect nothing special in a trade return, but still abandon ship asap.
Gregory Polanco: I’ve given it three weeks and I think I’m done. Polanco left Sunday’s game with more hamstring drama, and it came on nothing more than a routine grounder to third. It’s not a great sign, and you only have to look at Yoenis Cespedes to realize this kind of leg injury don’t just go away. I wish I could fall out of love with Polanco because this really hurts, but while he’s hit 3 RBI’s and a couple of extra-base-hits, now is the time to pull the trigger.
Jacob deGrom: If you own serious shares in the Mets, chances are you aren’t in first place. The thought of Cy Young and deGrom actually sprung for me earlier this year, but since then, it’s been a whole bunch of nothingness. He’s giving up careless HR’s and showing little command, and after giving up a lazy 4 ER’s on eight hits last week, there’s very little to hang your hat on other than strikeouts.
Ryan Zimmerman:
Alright, the 15 seconds are up. Oh wait, you thought this Zimmerman
thing was legit? It’s been done, but a 32-year old former part-time first baseman turned “woah he could actually be the MVP!” story was never going to last long. Zimm has not hit a HR in nearly a week, and while it might be tempting to hold him for the odd RBI numbers he’ll feed you, surely there is some sucker in your league who doesn’t know any better. Yep, pick on him.
Julio Teheran: Where’s the love for Teh-Teh? He tossed a three-hit gem on Saturday night against the Marlins, but the celebration of good times should stop there. In his last three starts, he’s given up 10 ER’s and his changeup is generating a 0.643 ISO against. Teheran will probably give up 50-something HR’s this year, but while he’s on the heels of what might be his most convincing win of the season, try unloading him and his problems on someone else.
Addison Russell: The heartbreak hotel continues. I thought Addison Russell might actually give it a red hot go this year, but instead, I could think of about 52 other shortstops I’d rather have. He’s had a measly 7 hits against lefties and has struck out 16 times with men on base. All of this would be bearable if he was hitting HR’s, but Russell’s career low 23.3% hard hit rate discounts that from happening anytime soon.
Kyle Hendricks: Hendricks’ 3.20 FIP last season filled us with false expectations I think, but he’s come back down to earth this year. Don’t get me wrong, you could do a lot worse, but his HR/FB rate has risen 6% from last year to now (15.6%) and he’s allowing a 92.4% contact rate on balls thrown inside the zone. Just a bad start, says you? Well, Hendricks’ high contact rate probably relates to the fact he’s given up 6 runs and 3 HR’s in the first innings of his 7 games so far. He had a much more solid start at Coors last week, so ride the coattails of that in trades.
Eric Hosmer: If you’ve lasted this long with Hosmer, good for you, you’re more patient than I am. Whenever a player hits 2 HR’s and 9 RBI’s on the back of a horrendous opening month, though, throw out your feelers and see who is buying into his supposed “turnaround”. Just don’t mention Hosmer’s 54.8% groundball rate, whatever you do.
Taijuan Walker: Walker was looking brilliant to start the season, but since he struck out 11 against the Padres to close out April, he’s gone quiet. To be fair Walker has faced a couple of tough road starts in Washington and Colorado this month, but his strikeouts are down and his cutter is giving up a contact rate of 87.4%. His start on Sunday against the Pirates was mediocre, giving up 3 ER to a team that ranks third last in the league in runs scored. Either this is just a hiccup or something to really worry about.
Buy
Yonder Alonso: What’s not to love here? Okay, he’s old, but Yonder Alonso is someone you really want. He’s suddenly decided that hitting HR’s is cool, and he’s even managing to walk a ton (12.4% to be exact). The best part is you can pick up Alonso from the waiver wire since he’s available in 38.3% of leagues, and while everyone else is complaining about Khris Davis’ cold streak, you can boast that you own the only other valuable A’s player this season.
Jason Vargas: I hummed and hawed about putting Vargas as a sell candidate because this 1.01 ERA thing probably won’t last long. The thing with Vargas is, though, I really can’t find any faults to bash the guy on. His LOB% (88.7%) is sixth highest in the league, and he’s allowing the 12th lowest hard hit rate (26.2%). His last three starts have come against the White Sox, Indians, and Rays, but most owners admit, at age 34, he’s got to come down to earth sometime. That makes Vargas a great buy low candidate if you need some cheap starting pitching.
Derek Dietrich: I almost had Brandon Drury in this spot, but then I realized something: they’re both the same player. For the second year in a row Dietrich and Drury look like they’re worth a speculation add, and in Dietrich’s case, it’s really only because he’s hit a HR, 5 RBI’s and three extra-base hits this week. Martin Prado on the 10 Day DL will give him guaranteed playing time, but that’s about the only sure thing when it comes to Dietrich.
Jose Berrios: I’m now the proud owner of a Jose Berrios. It’s only the third time around, but whatever. On Saturday Berrios was killer. He’d never thrown 7+ innings in his career, but he styled and profiled against the Indians, allowing only 1 ER and striking out 4. It’s really hard not to get overly excited, but Berrios looks like the Twins’ ace when Ervin Santana finally comes back to reality. His sinker generated a 9.09% whiff rate on Saturday, and even his fastball was thrown with great command. Get on board (again) while you still can.
Aaron Altherr: Yeah, it’s a 26 game sample size, but Altherr’s 196 wRC+ would rank him in the Top 10 hitters so far this season, not to mention his .338/.433/.714 slash line to go with it. Altherr is a hacker, and his AVG won’t stay this high but considering that 41.8% hard hit rate, he deserves to be owned in more than just 55% of leagues.
John Lackey: Lackey has been the most productive Cubs starter so far this season, didn’t you know? His 9.86 K/9 is a career high for the old guy, and he’s reduced his contact on balls thrown outside of the zone by 2%. Lackey’s HR/FB rate of 19% is unreasonably high, and so is his .310 BABIP, but Lackey is a guy you can own with ease if you’re in need of the strikeouts. The best part is, most owners will give him up easily if they haven’t been paying attention.
Jayson Werth: It’s unfortunate that Werth has missed some time with a groin injury, but he’s really had an incredible May. The stats read 3 HR’s and 4 RBI’s, but Werth’s five-star at-bats are where it’s at. He’s had one less hit (33) than Jose Abreu this season, value we sure didn’t see coming during the offseason. With so many OF’s on the DL, Werth is the perfect long-term replacement.
Alex Wood:
The panic over Alex Wood was real a month ago. He looked destined for the Dodgers’ bullpen at one point, but after completely obliterating the Rockies at Coors Field on Saturday night, you’ve got to have him. Wood’s three-pitch combination baffled Nolan Arenado on two separate occasions, and his changeup velocity has increased to 86.90mph (up two mph) since last year. I haven’t seen him look so dominant, and he’s actually available in most leagues. Wood’s 33.1% K-rate is money, and he’s allowed 0 HR’s with men on base this year. Everything is win, win.
Buying and selling makes up a good season, and fortunately, a bunch of these guys are available for little to no cost. May is a great time to reevaluate where you are in your league, so if you’re falling behind, play the market wisely.
