FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – May 17
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slates which kicks off at 12:10PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores were way above our season average as it took 316.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 49 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.0 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 49 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.0 points.
Tuesday Night’s Picks and Pivots was another successful night as for the second time in three days we landed with a top 10 GPP finish. The Cubs stack was at the core of our build yesterday and although it was the chalk, this ended up being a spot where you simply play the best players in the best match-up and try to differentiate elsewhere. The late news that Daniel Murphy would sit combined with Ian Happ hitting clean-up for the Cubs at only $2.2k made the swap at second base an easy one and gave us another salary to move up at starting pitcher and target Jimmy Nelson, who was Matt Rogers featured hurler in yesterday’s Daily Pitcher Breakdown! The Nelson/Cubs line-up combined with the Harper/Tomas plays from our core Picks and Pivots article pushed us to 255 FanDuel points and a great night across the board!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY):
Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,000): Although we only have a four game early slate on Wednesday we actually have two (maybe three) high-end starting pitchers to choose from which is fantastic for a short slate.
Clayton Kershaw is the clear top arm going against San Francisco in San Fran but he is going to cost you $12.5k AND has a tough opponent on the mound in Johnny Cueto. Kershaw will likely be the highest owned pitcher on the slate but for my money, I will happily take the $3.5k savings and drop down to Lance McCullers who gets to take on the Marlins in Miami.
McCullers is one of the best arms in baseball and an absolute DFS beast and the fact we can get such material cost savings off Kershaw here makes this an easy pivot in tournaments for me.
McCullers has a 29% K rate this season which is 8th in baseball and 2.5% higher than the aforementioned Kershaw. The Astros right-hander has taken a massive step forward this year, cutting his walk rate in half to 6.6% and is limiting opponents to a 23.4% hard contact rate with a massive 60% ground ball rate.
Honestly, McCullers checks all the boxes for me when picking my pitcher on FanDuel – he has a top 10 K rate, the third highest ground ball rate in baseball,he massively limits hard contact and comes into today’s game as a -150 road favorite.
I get that Kershaw is on the slate but in my mind there is no way there should be a $3.5k price difference between him and McCullers and I will happily take the savings to spend up on my bats today!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Chase Field: On the Early Slate I would expect the popular stacking spot to be Chase Field with a 9.5 projected run total and Matt Harvey and Patrick Corbin on the mound. Although I do think we have some solid one-off plays here, a full on stack may not be the best strategy.
The Diamondbacks are already without A.J. Pollock and David Peralta is nursing an injury which means the Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb may be better one-off plays or used as part of a mini-stack. Gregor Blanco ($2,200) may be one of the best value plays on the slate as he will likely continue to bat lead-off for Arizona in Chase Field with the roof open!
On the Mets side of the ball we have a left-hander on the mound so you know what that means – it is Wilmer Flores day! Flores ($2,700) will slot into the clean-up spot for the Mets and face off against a pitcher who gives up 36% hard contact to right-handed hitters at home this season and a 1.6 HR/9 to RHB.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians have the highest team total (5) of any team on the Early Slate and may go a bit over-looked with everyone focused on Chase Field. Alex Cobb is giving up 30% hard contact to left-handed batters this season and we can expect 80 degree temperatures in Cleveland with 15-20 mph blowing out!
Carlos Santana ($3,800), Jason Kipnis ($3,200) and Francisco Lindor ($3,900) make for an elite three-man stack on this slate and I expect Santana to be over-looked with players like Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo at first base!
Houston Astros: The Astros bats are simply on fire right now and today will face off against Jose Urena who has only a 12% K rate and gives up over 30% hard contact with an even higher split to left-handers.
George Springer ($3,500) and Josh Reddick ($3,600) make for a nice two-man stack at the top of the Astros line-up and allow you high-end exposure to one of the most explosive offenses in baseball. You can build off this stack as well by including a hitter like Brian McCann ($2,900) who will get the platoon advantage and has 23+ FD points in two of his last three games!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Line-up and Slate Overview (Early)
P: Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,000)
C: Brian McCann ($2,900)
1B: Carlos Santana ($3,800)
2B: Jason Kipnis ($3,200)
3B: Wilmer Flores ($2,700)
SS: Francisco Lindor ($3,900)
OF: George Springer ($3,500)
OF: Josh Reddick ($3,600)
OF: Gregor Blanco ($2,200)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate essentially boils down to whether or not you want to roster Clayton Kershaw or Lance McCullers and with the substantial salary difference you can see the type of high upside, well-rounded line-up you can build by dropping down to McCullers. As with any day slate, keep an eye on the line-ups as they are released as these tend to be the days managers give players “rest days” which could mean we see tons of unexpected value open up!
FanDuel MLB – Top Pitching Picks (MAIN):
Matt Shoemaker ($8,100) The Main Slate pitching options are not nearly as sexy as the Early Slate but we have a variety of solid choices all in similar price points which is great for making multiple rosters with the same basic line-up build.
The one biggest concern I have with this slate is we have a handful of ballparks with massive winds (15MPH+) blowing out so it will be important to keep an eye on the weather when selecting our pitchers and hitters.
One of the things I look at when picking my pitchers each day is the Vegas run totals and what is interesting to me is that the White Sox have the lowest run total of any team on the Main Slate as they face off with Matt Shoemaker.
Shoemaker is coming off his best start of the year where he racked up 49 FanDuel points as he struck out 7 Detroit Tigers while getting the coveted QS/Win combination! The White Sox have the lowest team wOBA and third lowest ISO of any team across the full day of action so this is a spot where Shoemaker should be able to limit the damage and drive a solid score.
Shoemaker is the second largest favorite on the board (-165) and on this slate that relative “safety” is something I am looking for to anchor my staff as frankly I think the opportunity cost at SP is minimal and as long as we get a solid score from our SP we should be in good position to let our bats carry us!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN)
Cubs versus Reds at Wrigley: I am going right back to the well here today as the temperatures remain in the 70’s with 20-30 mph winds blowing out at Wrigley Field.
The Cubs are squarely back in play as a top stack for me against Scott Feldman who is frankly a relatively non-descript SP with mediocre K rates and a 30% hard contact rate. Kris Bryant ($4,200) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,100) are two of the clear elite plays on this slate and can be paired with Addison Russell ($3,200) at a relatively weak SS position. If Ian Happ ($2,300) stays in the line-up he is a no-brainer value play at 2B as all he has done in three starts is bat .400 with 2 home runs and 4 RBI’s!
On the other side of this game, the Reds make for an elite stack as well in the same hitting conditions at a fraction of the ownership. The Reds actually have significant BvP success against Kyle Hendricks starting with Joey Votto ($4,300) who is 7 for 11 with two home runs off Hendricks in his career.
Hendricks is giving up 35% hard contact this season and we can easily stack the top of the Reds line-up here with Billy Hamilton ($3,500) and Adam Duvall ($3,300) to build around a Votto play and an overall game stack in Chicago!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Line-up and Slate Overview
P: Matt Shoemaker ($8,100)
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C: Robinson Chirinos ($3,000)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,300)
2B: Ian Happ ($2,300)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,200)
SS: Addison Russel ($3,200)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,100)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,500)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,300)
Slate Overview: Similar to last night’s slate I think the key strategy is to load up on bats and with elite hitting conditions in Wrigley I think we can all out game stack here and with no elite pitchers to pay up for, finding the salary to make this roster work should be no issue.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!