Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slates which kicks off at 12:35PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were well below our season average as it took 223 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 50 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 50 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.3 points.
Wednesday’s Picks and Pivots on the Main Slate were built around Matt Shoemaker who delivered a 9 strikeout 47 FanDuel point gem against the White Sox and paired with the right mixture of Wrigley Field bats, he we were able to sneak above the cash line in a variety of contests. Although the game in Wrigley did not end up with massive scores, the game still had a total of 12 runs and if you built a Reds stack you were able to get them all under 20% ownership which helped separate you from the field!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY)
German Marquez ($8,200) versus Minnesota: Even with two slates to play on today the one common theme is that pitching is awful! The more we get into this DFS season the more I feel like we have more terrible pitching slates then in years past but if you can find a way to navigate these you can get a big advantage over the field!
Whenever we have a slate where the pitching is weak one of the first places I go to look for options is Vegas – specifically the projected run total. For the Early Slate on FanDuel, the Minnesota Twins have the lowest projected team run total at 4.12 facing off against RHP German Marquez.
Looking at Marquez’s game log this season you will see he has exceptional GPP upside with two starts of 46+ FanDuel points with two others that results in 12 or fewer – basically the definition of a GPP option!
In Marquez’s two dominant starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks(think about those offenses), Marquez struck 8 batters in each game while only walking 2 batters combined over 14 innings! Marquez has been dominant against LHB this season holding them to a 15% hard contact rate with a 25% K rate and the Twins outside of Miguel Sano/Brian Dozer are a dominant left-handed line-up.
Assuming the line-up for the Twins stays left-handed heavy, this is a great spot to attack Marquez in tournaments as he sits at the exact same price as Tanner Roark against the Pirates who I expect will be the chalk play due to his perceived “safety” but I would much prefer the GPP upside of Marquez here who in my opinion is the only pitcher capable of putting up the massive early slate outing we need!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Wrigley Field (once again): For the third straight day we get a game in Wrigley Field with warm temperatures and 20 MPH winds blowing out to right-center and we should expect another barrage of runs.
From a game theory perspective I certainly understand playing the small slate fade here but with high totals in Baltimore/Detroit and Philadelphia/Texas, we may seem some of the ownership naturally funnel away.
Although I think those games will be popular the one biggest difference in my mind is the wind – as Detroit AND Texas are both seeing 20 MPH winds BLOWING IN!
I will head back to Wrigley today for the core of my line-up and start with the Cubs who face possibly the worst pitcher on the slate in Amir Garrett. Garrett so far this season is giving up 37% hard contact to RHB with a 16% K rate and 10% walk rate so I expect the Cubs to load up on right-handers in this spot which could spell trouble for Garrett.
Kris Bryant ($4,300) is my top play of the day and I will look to stack him with Ben Zobrist ($2,800) and Addison Russell ($3,200) as the top right-handed bats at the top/middle of the Cubs line-up. As part of a stack I love the idea of paying up for Anthony Rizzo ($4,100) who should be over-looked due to the lefty/lefty match-up but I would expect the Cubs to get to Garrett early which will lead to a long bullpen game which could swing the platoon advantage back in Rizzo’s favor.
On the other side of this game the Reds will face off with Jon Lester and they may actually be my favorite stack on this slate. Last night the Reds top 4 were all under 20% owned, essentially half as popular as the Cubs marquee names and with Jon Lester on the mound today it may supress ownership even more.
Billy Hamilton ($3,700) is an elite play in this spot and he has the BvP to prove it! In his career against Lester, Hamilton is 7 for 13 with 6 stolen bases and will simply be in every one of my lineups today! Adam Duvall ($3,400) is crushing left-handed pitching this year to the tune of a 40% hard contact rate and has 4 home runs in only 32 at-bats. If Tucker Barnhart ($2,300) remains in the line-up today he makes for an elite punt catching option who has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four starts!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Line-up and Slate Overview
P: German Marquez ($8,200)
C: Tucker Barnhart ($2,300)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,100)
2B: Rougned Odor ($2,900)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,300)
SS: Addison Russell ($3,200)
OF: Ben Zobrist ($2,800)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,700)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,400)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate essentially boils down to what you intend to do with Wrigley Field. My goal is to game stack this game for the third straight day and I will let others get cute and try to play the game theory. There are legit other offensive options to attack on this slate but with the wind blowing strongly IN and the price points essentially in line with the Wrigley bats, I see no reason to stray from the top scoring game of the day and will mix and match as many Reds/Cubs hitters as I can get in multiple lines!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (Main)
Oh you thought the Early Slate pitching was ugly? Welcome to the Main Slate dumpster fire!
So where do you want to go here? There is not one single pitcher averaging more than 30 FanDuel points per start this season so rather than pay up for mediocre starting pitching I am going to drop ALL the way down to the two cheapest arms on the slate and target essentially two unknowns!
Sam Gaviglio ($5,500): The lowest prices pitcher on the main slate, Gaviglio is the second largest favorite (-175) of any starting pitcher going today and although this will be his first start at the Major League level, he did have a relief outing last week against Toronto that was impressive.
In 2 innings of work, Gavaiglio struck out four batters and threw 25 of his 30 pitches for strikes. The reality is though this play is less about Gaviglio and more about his opponent – the White Sox – who are bottom 3 in the league against RHP in WRC+, wOBA and team ISO. As long as the Mariners right-hander can get 5-6 innings, he has a solid chance of crushing value in this spot against one of the worst offenses in baseball.
Hector Velazquez ($5,600) For just $100 more we can also look to the Red Sox right-hander who will take on the A’s in Oakland tonight. Velazquez has been stellar at AAA this season racking up a 1.55 ERA and 0.79 WHIP and will get the advantage of pitching in a pitcher’s park in Oakland for his MLB debut.
The reality is – the minor league numbers do not jump off the page for either of these two pitchers but there is simply so little opportunity cost on the slate at starting pitcher so I like the idea of rolling out the cheapest plays in solid pitching environments and letting my bats carry me tonight!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN)
Miami Marlins versus Hyun-Jin Ryu: Ryu comes into this game as the largest favorite on the board and the Marlins have the lowest team total on the slate but I am sorry, this is a spot where I just am not seeing what Vegas is seeing.
Ryu this year is giving up 30% hard contact and has already surrendered 5 home runs in 21 innings against right-handed bats and if Ryu is going to be “chalk” then I love the idea of stacking against him! Gianacarlo Stanton ($3,900) and Marcell Ozuna ($3,900) both have massive power upside in this spot and considering Ryu has failed to go more than 6 innings yet this year while sporting a 10% walk rate, I think we can easily attack stack against him with power bats who will likely be over-looked due to the low team total.
Dodgers versus RHP Ediinson Volquez: In the same game I am looking towards the left-handed Dodger bats as they face off with a pitcher who has given up 47% hard contact and 1.7 HR/9 to LHB so far this season.
The Dodgers line-up is loaded with left-handed bats so we can pick and choose our stack here with guys like Corey Seager ($3,600), Yasmani Grandal ($3,000) and Cody Bellinger ($3,500). The Dodgers have a middle of the road team total so I expect this game to be largely over-looked tonight which makes it a spot for GPP’s that I think we can target at low ownership!
Seattle Mariners versus Dylan Covey: The likely “chalk” stack of the night can be found in Seattle as the Mariners have a 4.91 run total which is the highest on the slate and a half run more than the next closest team.
Covey this season is giving up 47% hard contact and 4 HR/9 to right-handed batters – yes that is 7 home runs in 12 innings. Nelson Cruz ($4,300) is arguably the top bat on this slate and I will look to pair him with Kyle Seager ($3,600) as a mini-stack here for a Mariners line-up that remains without Robinson Cano.
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP Lineup and Slate Overview:
P: Sam Gaviglio ($5,500)
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C: Yasmani Grandal ($3,000)
1B: Cody Bellinger ($3,500)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3,700)
3B: Kyle Seager ($3,600)
SS: Corey Seager ($3,600)
OF: Nelson Cruz ($4,300)
OF: Marcell Ozuna ($3,900)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800)
Slate Overview: Hold your noise, pick a pitcher and then pray? Honestly, I think this is a slate you can ONLY play GPP’s on and as such be willing to take chances. If you pay down at SP you can essentially pick whatever bats you want and I do not think you are sacrificing that much upside with whomever you select at SP. There are enough high upside bats that make this approach worth it which can really set you apart in tournaments.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!