Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 2:10PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s winning GPP scores jumped back up above oue season average as it took 277.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 52 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.3 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 52 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.3 points.
Friday’s Picks and Pivots was a prime example of where fading the chalk goes horribly wrong. Although we anchored our line-up with Chris Sale (who delivered another 50 FD points) it was the Arizona stack which came through in a big way and was the key to winning a GPP – specifically Jake Lamb who got 50 FanDuel points on his own!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY)
Go ahead and take a quick look at the FanDuel Starting Pitchers for today – open the screen and give me your gut reaction. Max Scherzer jumps out as the top end option against a Freeman-less Braves line-up and then you start to scroll down to guys like Ivan Nova against the Phillies. Admit it, you jumped right over Jake Arrieta didn’t you?
Jake Arrieta ($9,700) is the second most expensive pitcher on the slate but is averaging the 10th most fantasy points per start – so why on earth would we spend nearly $10k for this guy? That reaction is exactly what I am hoping the masses flock towards today which will lead Arrieta to a being significantly under-owned in a prime home match-up against the Brewers.
The advanced stats on Arrieta this season show a pitcher who has been insanely unlucky and there is going to be positive regression coming at some point – hopefully today. Arrieta has a .355 BABIP which is over .100 points higher than in either of the previous two seasons which is attributing to his 5.99 ERA so far this year.
The K rate at 25% is right in line with his previous three-year mark and his pitch velocity and selection is not showing any material variances from his previous seasons so this could simply be a case of some bad luck and tough match-ups (Coors Field) which is skewing the early season numbers.
Today, Arrieta faces a Milwaukee team striking out at the third highest clip of any team in MLB against RHP and a team that Arrieta already dominated earlier this season to the tune of 10 K’s and 52 FanDuel points.
Arrieta is a massive -200 favorite in Wrigley where we will see cool, damp conditions with the wind blowing in which sets up perfectly for him today. Add in the fact that Milwaukee has the lowest run total (3.15) on the board and this looks like a spot where all signs are pointing towards a bounce back…and I want in!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
The Main Slate has a ton of great offensive options to choose from including the Washington Nationals who will face off with Bartolo Colon and will likely be the chalk stack for GPP players today! As usual, I am going to find pivot plays when building my lines and I think we have enough spots pick from that a fade of the Nationals is absolutely in play today!
Tampa Bay Rays versus Masahiro Tanaka: Tanaka is quickly becoming the definition of a GPP pitcher in DFS showing a significant boom or bust nature including two games this year where he has given up 7 or more runs! One of those games was in his first start this year against the Tampa Bay Rays in Tropicana Field where will head back to today! The Rays top two hitters have fantastic BvP against Tanaka with Corey Dickerson ($3,600) and Kevin Kiermaier ($2,800) going a combined 12 for 28 with 2 home runs against Tanaka.
Indians and Astros in Houston: My favorite game stack today can be found in Houston as the Indians and Astros will take the field with two home run prone arms on the hill! Mike Fiers will take the hill for the Astros and has already surrendered an insane 11 home runs to right-handed batters in only 15 innings of work this season with a 43% hard contact rate!
The Indians are a mostly left-handed hitting team but the one player that is going to be a lock and load for me is Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300) who will likely be over-looked in a righty/righty match-up but this is a great spot to target an extreme reverse splits pitcher! From a BvP perspective, Jose Ramirez ($3,100) is a great min-stack addition as he is 4 for 8 in his career against Fiers and is priced extremely fairly relative to the GPP upside he has!
On the Astros side, they face off with Mike Clevinger, another reverse splits arm who has given up 2 HR/9 in his career to right-handed bats – and the Astros line-up is LOADED with right-handed power. All the Astros usual suspects are in play today but I am going to focus on George Springer ($3,600) and Carlos Correa ($4,200) when building my Picks and Pivots line-up today!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Jake Arrieta ($9,700)
C: Josh Phegley ($2,400)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300)
2B: Jed Lowrie ($2,300)
3B: Jose Ramirez ($3,100)
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,200)
OF: George Springer ($3,600)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,600)
OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($2,800)
Slate Overview: I love slates like this for GPP’s as I think the masses will look towards the Nationals to either anchor their staff or hitting stacks and if we are willing to pivot away we can take some chances with other high-end options that will largely be overlooked!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (MAIN)
Zack Wheeler ($7,500): After a long road back from arm injuries, it appears that Wheeler is beginning to regain his elite skill set and the results have gotten better with each start. Wheeler has now gone at least 6 innings in three of his last four starts and has given up 1 ER in four of his last five starts.
In his previous two outings, Wheeler has delivered 37 FanDuel points per start and tonight takes on an Angels team that we just saw get “de-grominated” with a 9 K outing by Jacob deGrom. I would expect Wheeler will get completely over-looked on this slate as most will look to pay up for high-end strike-out arms like Carlos Martinez or Robbie Ray so pivoting down to a guy like Wheeler will give us a completely different roster build.
Wheeler is only a -125 favorite but the Angels have one of the lowest run projections on the board 3.79 so Vegas seems to think that Wheeler will keep up his recent run of low run output and the strike-out upside is evident against a team that is basically Mike Trout and a bunch of other guys!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN)
Blue Jays versus Kevin Gascan (Gausman): The Orioles may have the highest team total on the board but it is the Blue Jays I am most interested in tonight as they take on Kevin Gausman who has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season!
Gausman is giving up 33% hard contact and 2 HR/9 to right-handed hitters and with all the focus on the Orioles bats, the Blue Jays power may go largely ignored. Jose Bautista ($3,800) is the top play but do not overlook Kendrys Morales ($3,100) who will likely be the third most popular first base option in this game behind Chris Davis and Justin Smoak!
Detroit Tigers versus A.J. Griffin: The Tigers were a popular stack on Friday night and let a lot of people down so this is always a time I want to go back to the well! Griffin so far this season is giving up 34% hard contact and 1.7 HR/9 to both sides of the plate so a full on Tigers stack is firmly in play for me today!
J.D. Martinez ($4,100) let us down last night but I am more than willing to pay up for one of the hottest bats in baseball and you can pair him with Ian Kinsler ($3,400) and #2 hitter Tyler Collins ($2,600) for a top of the order Tigers stack!
Dodgers versus Dan Straily: Any time we get a RHP versus LA we know we can stack the left-handed heavy line-up and tonight is no different! Corey Seager ($3,500) and Yasmani Grandal ($3,000) are simply priced too cheap relative to their upside and we can build a nice mini-stack in the heart of the Dodgers order here at two tough to fill positions.
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Zack Wheeler ($7,500)
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C: Yasmani Grandal ($3,000)
1B: Kndrys Morales ($3,100)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,400)
3B: Jake Lamb ($4,000)
SS: Corey Seager ($3,500)
OF: Jose Bautista ($3,800)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($4,100)
OF: Tyler Collins ($2,600)
Slate Overview: The late slate is loaded with hitting options and you can see that paying down to Zack Wheeler allows you to build an absolutely stacked line-up without sacrificing much upside at SP!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and analysis!