Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 1:10PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’s winning GPP scores jumped back up above our season average as it took 281.5 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 53 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.8 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 53 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 257.8 points.
Saturday Night’s winning GPP line-ups were an interesting mix of chalk and an off the wall stack that hit it big. The Tigers stack, which we featured in Picks and Pivots, went off in a big time way as Alex Avila, Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez all homered. The White Sox hitters however were the difference on the night as they put up 16 runs and a 2% owned Avisal Garcia erupted for 66 FanDuel Points!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB Starting Pitcher Picks:
Chris Archer ($10,100): The Main Slate today has multiple high-end arms we can pay up for and on this slate my recommendation is to pay up at pitcher as I believe the opportunity cost is too high to fade the elite arms.
Although the match-up against the Yankees is not one we typically want to attack, the fact that Chris Archer is pitching at home makes him a lock and load GPP play for me. Archer simply pitches at another level in Tropicana field as evidenced by his 33% K rate at home this season which is an improvement off his 30% mark last season.
The Yankees strike out at the 8th highest mark against RHP this season but you do have to balance that against the fact that they are top 5 in most offensive categories so you are really playing the high strikeout angle here understanding there is risk in the offense he is facing.
Jake Arrieta ($9,700) is a guy we wrote up yesterday and due to a rain-out has been pushed back to today’s game against the Brewers.
The advanced stats on Arrieta this season show a pitcher who has been insanely unlucky and there is going to be positive regression coming at some point – hopefully today. Arrieta has a .355 BABIP which is over .100 points higher than in either of the previous two seasons which is attributing to his 5.99 ERA so far this year.
The K rate at 25% is right in line with his previous three-year mark and his pitch velocity and selection is not showing any material variances from his previous seasons so this could simply be a case of some bad luck and tough match-ups (Coors Field) which is skewing the early season numbers.
Today, Arrieta faces a Milwaukee team striking out at the third highest clip of any team in MLB against RHP and a team that Arrieta already dominated earlier this season to the tune of 10 K’s and 52 FanDuel points.
Arrieta is a massive -200 favorite in Wrigley and Milwaukee has the lowest run total (3.17) on the board so I love this spot as a sneaky tournament pivot. The fact that Arrieta is only $400 lower than Archer and Stephen Strasburg will likely leave him under-owned….oh and the fact that the wind is blowing straight out to center in Wrigley…but more on that in the next section!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Chicago Cubs versus Chase Anderson: Last week was one of the more profitable ones for Picks and Pivots as we went hard after the hitting conditions in Wrigley Field and after two days below the cash line, I am heading back to trusty ole Wrigley where the wind is projecting to be blowing straight out around 20MPH!
Chase Anderson will take the mound for the Brewers with a 43% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season with a 46% fly ball rate which could spell big time trouble in these hitting conditions. Anthony Rizzo ($4,200) and Kyle Schwarber ($3,400) are my top two plays here but if you are stacking them you absolutely need to include Kris Bryant ($4,300). Do not overlook Jason Heyward ($2,700) here as he was activated on Saturday(for a game that got rained out) and was projected to bat in the 6th spot and should be low owned as game log watchers may not realize he is back for the Cubs!
Rockies versus Bronson Arroyo: If you are looking to pivot away from Wrigley, my favorite spot is Great American Ballpark where the Rockies will face off against Bronson Arroyo. Arroyo has given up a 35% hard contact rate and 2.4 HR/9 so far this season and in a great hitting park like this, I can understand why the Rockies have one of the highest run totals on the board.
The Rockies outside of the top players have some intriguing value plays including Carlos Gonzalez ($2,800) whop has back to back 15 FD point games and #2 hitter, D.J. LeMahieu ($2,900) who has put up over 50 FD points in two games in Cincinnati so far this weekend!
Alexi Amarista ($2,400) is an elite punt play at shortstop assuming he stays in the line-up as he is red-hot, going 5 for 10 in this series with a home run, 6 RBI’s and 57 FanDuel points!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Chris Archer ($10,100)
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C: Ryan Hanigan ($2,200)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,200)
2B: D.J. LeMehaieu ($2,900)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,200)
SS: Alexi Amarista ($2,400)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($3,400)
OF: Jason Heyward ($2,700)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($2,800)
Slate Overview: On the main slate I am going to ensure I pay up for starting pitching and get as much exposure to the Cubs offense as possible. As always on Sunday’s keep an eye on the line-ups for random rest days and adjust accordingly!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!