Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 305.3 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 54 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 54 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.7 points.
Sunday’s Picks and Pivots dropped 236 FanDuel points and cashed across the board as our roster built around Chris Archer (50 FD points) and his 12 strikeouts was able to end the day well over the cash line. The focus on the Cubs bats came through in a big way as Kris Bryant erupted for two home runs and 52 FD points while we also got a home run from Anthony Rizzo (28 FD points). The additional stack of Rockies value bats was a key secondary piece as Carlos Gonzalez and D.J. LeMahieu both homered and scored 24 and 34 FanDuel points respectively.
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
Michael Pineda ($8,700): As I look over the Main Slate pitching options frankly there is not a whole lot that jumps off the page at first glance. As I have mentioned many times before in this spot, one thing I like to do when picking my pitcher is to get an idea on what Vegas is thinking and see if anything stands out.
The Kansas City Royals head to Yankee Stadium to face Michael Pineda and the Yankees and Vegas currently has Pineda as the third largest favorite (-170) and the Royals as the lowest projected scoring team (3.59 runs).
Pineda is a guy who I have always considered more of a GPP play due to his volatility but this season once he got past his Opening Day start in Tampa he has become one of the more consistent fantasy arms in the league. Pineda has 34+ FanDuel points in four straight games and has not allowed more than 3 ER in any start since Opening Day.
Pineda heads to the mound today with a 28.8% K rate which is the 6th highest mark in all of baseball and the top mark of any SP going on this slate. The Royals meanwhile rank in the bottom 5 in baseball against RHP in team ISO and wOBA so this is a line-up Pineda should be able to navigate through!
The weather in NY has turned stepped back from the last few days of summer like heat and dropped back into the 60’s with some damp/cool weather and threat of thunderstorms so we will need to keep an eye on the storms closer to game time but outside of that risk, Pineda is my top GPP arm on this slate as his price point, K upside and match-up make him my preferred target!
UPDATE: The more I look at this slate the more I get the feeling Pineda is going to be the chalk so I am looking for options in the same price point that may get over-looked. Jake Odorizzi ($8,400) is the option that has the most appeal to me for a few reasons – first Odorizzi is pitching in one of the best pitcher parks (Tropicana Field) where he has performed exceptionally well over his last three home starts with 31, 46 and 34 FanDuel points.
The match-up with the Angels is one we should not be afraid to exploit(unless Tommy Millone is pitching) as they rank in the bottom 3 in team ISO and 24th in team wOBA against RHP. Break that down by player (aka exclude Mike Trout) and you see a team that is littered with hitters that have ISO’s all under .160.
Pineda may have the K upside we look for in tournaments but when you compare his recent stretch of outings (37.5 FD points per game over his last four starts) versus Odorizzi (33.5), is it really worth playing the chalk?
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
Indians and Reds at Great American Ballpark: With a game in Chase Field, the wind blowing out in Wrigley and a high total in Camden Yards we have tons of spots to attack from a hitting perspective tonight but the one game that stands out to me from a stacking perspective is Cleveland/Cincinnati.
This game has a 9 team total (same as the game in Chase Field) with two pitchers, Scott Feldman and Josh Tomlin that I think we can attack across the board!
The Reds are my favorite side of this stack as they go up against Josh Tomlin, a pitcher who has given up 33% or more hard contact in each of the last three seasons and 1.8 HR/9 in each of the last two years!
What I love about the Reds from a GPP perspective is that the price points are just high enough and in the same range as more popular environments that we can likely get a stack here for single digit ownership! If I am stacking here I am going to look at the top 5 in the line-up with Billy Hamilton ($3,800), Zack Cozart ($3,500), Adam Duvall ($3,600) and Eugenio Suarez ($3,300).
Joey Votto ($4,500) is pricey but the fact he sits between Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo may lead him to be completely over-looked so I like the idea of mixing him into a GPP stack as well! The Reds hitters are all coming into this game on hot streaks as the mid-range team total may keep the masses away here in one of the best hitting spots in all of baseball!
The Indians face off with Scott Feldman, a pitcher with a mid-teens K rate who gives up 30% hard contact who we can attack with hitters from both sides of the plate! The Indians are priced fairly on FanDuel which makes a stack here easy to deploy with hitters such as Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300), Jason Kipnis ($3,400) and Lonnie Chisenhall ($3,400) who has homered in two of his last three games!
FanDuel MLB – Top GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Michael Pineda ($8,700)
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C: Roberto Perez ($2,000)
1B: Edwin Encarnacion ($3,300)
2B: Jason Kipnis ($3,400)
3B: Eugenio Suarez ($3,300)
SS: Zack Cozart ($3,500)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,600)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($3,800)
OF: Lonnie Chisenhall ($3,400)
Slate Overview: Although we only have a nine game slate, the hitting options on Monday night are vast so this is a great opportunity to watch ownership projections and see where the masses are going to flock. If most players look towards Chase/Wrigley/Camden it could leave the game in Great American Ballpark over-looked and it makes for a fantastic game stack opportunity. At SP, Pineda offers the best bang for your buck with high strikeout upside at a price point that allows you the ability to pay up for a high upside balanced line-up.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!