Welcome to the Tuesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Monday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 294.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 55 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 55 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.4 points.
Monday’s Picks and Pivots, emphasis on Pivots, changed course throughout the day as it became clear that Michael Pineda was going to be the massive chalk at pitcher. We had outlined Jake Odorizzi as a low owned pivot option and when rosters locked and I saw Pineda at 40% ownership in GPP’s I knew we had a real chance to separate ourselves from the field.
Ultimately Odorizzi scored 40 FanDuel points which matched Pineda and helped us hit above the cash line in a handful of contests we entered. The winning line-ups also pivoted off Pineda and went with Zack Greinke who was 15% owned and dropped 69 FanDuel points in a dominant effort against the White Sox!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
Lance McCullers Jr. ($9,400) The first question on tonight’s slate is whether or not you are going to roster Clayton Kershaw for $12,600. Although Kershaw is always a top end option, the reality is he only has topped 50 FanDuel points once in his last five outings so I do not think paying the premium here is truly necessary.
For me, I am going to drop down to the Astros right-hander, Lance McCullers who gets a home start against the Detroit Tigers. McCullers comes into this game as a massive -210 favorite and the Tigers have the second lowest projected run total of any team on the board!
The Tigers are a line-up I would expect most are hesitant to attack in DFS but the reality is they strike out the 6th most of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching and we saw Brad Peacock mow down 8 hitters last night in less than 5 innings of work!
McCullers over the last two seasons has a 29% K rate which is on par with the aforementioned Kershaw and with over $3k of salary savings, I am happy to drop down to a pitcher who has put up 46 or more FanDuel points in five of his eight starts this season.
If you are looking for pivot plays, there are a ton of options at this same price point but the two that stand out to me are Matt Shoemaker ($8,800) and Danny Duffy ($8,600).
Shoemaker is coming off two straight dominant outings where he put up 47 and 49 FanDuel points while striking out 8 batters a game and today will face a Rays team that strikes out at the highest rate of any team in baseball against RHP.
Duffy gets a repeat of a match-up he just had last week as he takes on the Yankees and game log watchers will notice he struck out 10 batters in that game while racking up 61 FD points. The upside is certainly there for GPP’s but with this game being in Yankee Stadium (and not in KC), I am more than likely going to leave Duffy alone outside of a multi-entry GPP dart throw!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks
Arizona Diamondbacks at home against Dylan Covey: Arizona comes into today with the highest projected run total on the board (nearly 6 runs) and will face a pitcher in Dylan Covey who has a 7.64 ERA this season.
The Diamondbacks will be popular but this is a spot where I think eating the chalk is the best strategy as with so many games on tap, even 15-20% ownership is something I can stomach due to the elite match-up.
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,700) and Jake Lamb ($4,100) are the obvious premiere plays here and will be at the core of any Arizona stack you look to build. David Peralta ($3,300) will likely be popular as well batting lead-off but I think we can differentiate a bit by targeting some of the right-handed bats in this line-up.
Covey so far this season has given up 8 home runs in 16 innings against RHP and is surrendering a 42% hard contact rate! Brandon Drury ($2,600) and Yasmany Tomas ($3,600) are two bats that may get over-looked here and make for great stacking options that will help you differentiate off the Peralta-Lamb-Goldy core!
Rockies versus Zach Eflin: The Rockies bats make for another great stacking option today as they take on Zach Eflin in Citizen’s Bank Park who has surrendered 42% hard contact to left-handed bats this season with 1.33 HR/9. Charlie Blackmon ($4,300) and Carlos Gonzalez ($3,000) make for an elite mini-stack on the OF as they are both hitting the ball extremely well and get one of the best hitting environments a left-handed hitter could ask for!
St. Louis Cardinals versus Clayton Kershaw: Say what? Well, FanDuel for the second straight Kershaw start has dropped the opposing batters prices all under $2k which gives us some interesting punt options to consider.
As an avid reader of Picks and Pivots mentioned to me on Twitter this morning, Dexter Fowler ($1,600) is 18 for 44 (.409) in his career against Kershaw and makes for an elite BvP play! Realistically, all the Cardinals are in play if you need a one-off punt play as you can essentially stack whatever offense you want with a high-end pitcher by using their salary savings! From my perspective I will likely look to a player like Yadier Molina ($1,900) as a punt catcher option or Aledyms Diaz ($1,700) as players with the righty/lefty match-up against Kershaw.
What I love about this strategy is that if you are already fading Kershaw, you can stack against him with essentially no opportunity cost and if those punt plays hit, you will get the benefit of taking points away from the top owned pitcher on the slate!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Lance McCullers ($9,400)
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C: Yadier Molina ($1,900)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,700)
2B: Brandon Drury ($2,600)
3B: Jake Lamb ($4,100)
SS: Aledmys Diaz ($1,700)
OF: David Peralta ($3,300)
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($4,300)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,000)
Slate Overview: We have a massive Tuesday slate so if you are playing GPP’s you can clearly identify the chalk and take some one-off plays that will be very low owned. I would expect Kershaw to be the highest owned pitcher and Arizona to be the chalk stack but as I said, sometimes fading the chalk is the wrong play! There are some intriguing pivots if you are playing GPP’s as you can roster guys like Eric Thames/Travis Shaw in Miller Park against Joe Biagini at the same spots as Goldy/Lamb for less than 5% ownership!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!