Padres Brad Hand: Someone You Should Own?

Great relief pitchers are a dying breed. While you trawl the waiver wire in search of some gems, is Brad Hand someone you should consider?

It’s not always about who you play, it’s about when you play them.

San Diego Padres reliever Brad Hand fits that old baseball theory like a glove. If you’re not sure who he is, hey that’s cool because up until the beginning of May, nobody did. Hand was just another pitcher with extremely low expectations, tossed into a below average Padres’ rotation hoping for the best.

This fantasy baseball thing has been difficult this season. Players that weren’t supposed to be good are mashing, and the ones that we wasted first round picks on are either on the DL or laying goose eggs. All we can do is ride the hot hand, and pray for results.

This is what makes baseball great, though, because every now and then someone like Hand comes along and reminds us a) why you can’t predict baseball, and more importantly, b) why we should no longer place so much emphasis on drafting RPs.

Every year there’s a story like this, but Hand’s is somewhat legit. Similar to what you might (will) do after reading this, the Padres too picked Hand up off waivers, adding their third lefty into a bullpen commanded by Brandon Maurer.

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Almost overnight, Hand became something special. Don’t look now, but he’s allowed only 5 ERs and 2 HRs through 24 IP this season, and for a 27-year old who was still developing his pitch repertoire this time last year, Hand’s numbers are certainly something you need to pay attention to.

It might come as a surprise, but the Padres bullpen as a whole hasn’t been that bad. It ranks fourth in the league with a 5.06 ERA. A surprising number for a team that has given up 61 HRs this year, but San Diego’s 16-30 win/loss record really isn’t as bad as it looks.

Part of these numbers is due to (excuse the pun) the handy work of Hand. As of Monday he’s allowed a 1.67 BABIP with men in scoring position and has been one of the most efficient relievers when faced with a jam, stranding runners for an 85.6 LOB%.

The reason for these unexpected numbers are due to the adjustments Hand has made to his pitching arsenal. He’s known for a nasty slider complimenting his 92 MPH fastball, but all of this didn’t come together as easily as you may think.

In 2016, Hand was throwing a mediocre curveball generating a swing and miss rate of 7.69%. It was obvious by August that it wasn’t meant to be, so Hand went away during the offseason and developed his slider into one of the prettiest in the league.

A nice slicing slider is perhaps the best weapon a lefty can have, and Hand’s has been just that. It comes into the batter’s box at a slow 82 MPH, but it definitely shouldn’t be underestimated. Last season Hand’s slider created -1.49 vertical movement, but is now creating -2.49 movement through May, so it shows just how much more confident he is with the pitch, not to mention the 25% whiff rate it’s creating.

The great thing about Hand is that not only is he throwing better, he’s throwing a lot more of what works. His slider usage was up to a career high 44.31% in April, and he’s relying a lot less on his four-seam fastball that allowed a .227 AVG and 12% walk rate last year.

All of Hand’s numbers look good, other than the fact that he allowed 2 ER’s last week. His groundball percentage comes in at a steady 55.8%, his K/9 is at a career high 11.63, and even Hand’s hardball rate has dropped significantly.

So, numbers, numbers, numbers, what do they all mean? And why should you care?

Honestly, Hand won’t win you any awards this season. He plays for the Padres remember, and his 0-3 win/loss record speaks for itself. While his slider looks fantastic and his 1.88 ERA seems enticing, Hand’s multi-strikeout innings will likely continue, but with no run support, there’s no way his ERA stays that low.

So, should you own him?

Here’s where things get interesting. Maurer has given up 10 ERs this month in a lousy 6.2 innings, and even though Hand hasn’t registered a win yet, he looks like god himself compared to Maurer, who has already blown two saves this week.

The best part about all of this is the fact that the only real trade pieces the Padres have right now come in the form of pitchers. Hand is definitely on that list, being a dominant lefty and all, so if he does find himself in a more favorable situation (and ballpark) his value could increase tenfold.

Next: Gleyber Torres' Fantasy Value

As mentioned earlier, don’t let the stink of the Padres meaningless season get you down about owning shares in their bullpen. Hand is a valuable lefty that is owned in only 3.5% of ESPN leagues, and even if he doesn’t guarantee you wins, he sure as heck guarantees you holds, plenty of K’s, and perhaps some underrated value as a 27-year old who is finally finding some footing as a dominant reliever.