Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 12:35PM and 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 306.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 56 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 56 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.2 points.
Tuesday Night’s Picks and Pivots line’s took the approach to pivot off Clayton Kershaw and lock in two of the best arms in the next tier with Lance McCullers and Matt Shoemaker. Both pitchers performed well as McCullers racked up 36 FD points and Shoemaker with 44 which was no match for Kershaw’s 58, however the salary savings allowed us to pay up for bats which on this night was the clear difference.
Offense was plentiful on this slate and with so many pitchers in the 40 FD point range, it was really the choice of bats that set you apart. We planted our flag with the Diamondbacks stack and they did not disappoint as Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb both had over 18 FD points each and we got a home run from our punt catcher in Chris Herrmann.
The other offense we targeted was Colorado, specifically the left-handed bats against Philadelphia and the choice to pay up for Charlie Blackmon who was under 10% owned paid off big time as he launched two home runs and brought home 44 FanDuel points!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY):
Trevor Bauer ($7,800): The Early Slate pitching is rather ugly but if you step back from the slate I think it becomes clear that you have two very clear chalk paths people will take. First is the upside play – Jose Berrios, the top Twins prospect who is amazingly the highest priced pitcher on the slate and is coming off an 11-K performance against the Rockies and today faces a Baltimore Orioles squad. The second is the “safe” play in Marcus Stroman who will take his elite ground ball rate up against a boom or bust line-up in Milwaukee.
I certainly understand both plays and can debate the merits of either but if my initial reaction is right – these are the two highest owned pitchers – do I really want to play chalk Stroman against Milwaukee or pay over $9k for a prospect who had only 4 strikeouts in his first start and was an utter disaster at the MLB level last year? I think on the Early Slate your best bet to differentiate yourself is to pay down at SP as we actually have some solid options to choose from.
I am asked often about my process for picking players each day and the one common piece of advice I give is – keep it simple. On slates like this, rather than dig into the game logs or the advanced stats, I am going to step back and look at what Vegas is telling me.
On this slate there is one pitcher who is the largest favorite (-180) and is pitching against a team with the lowest projected run total on the slate. This pitcher is also coming off back to back 40+ FanDuel point outings with 7 and 9 K’s in those starts and will toe the rubber in cold/damp conditions today.
Trevor Bauer is a name that has probably burned many of you in DFS but the underlying stats are very promising here – Bauer has at least 7 K’s in five of his eight starts this season which gives you elite K upside for someone priced below $8k!
If you are looking for a pivot, the one arm I have some interest in is Sonny Gray ($8,200) who gets a home start against Miami and is coming off his best start of the year with 8 K’s and 43 FD points against the Red Sox. What is most encouraging is that Gray has now topped 100 pitches in each of his last two games and I love to target pitchers who we know will go deep into games,, giving us the chance to grab the W/QS with added K upside!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Arizona Diamondbacks: Even with so many uninspiring pitchers on the Early Slate, we are not necessarily left with a ton of must have hitting options but there is one game environment which is the clear top spot to look at – Chase Field in 100 degree heat!
Jose Quintana toes the rubber for the White Sox which means we get a left-hander in Chase Field – so the DFS handbook tells us not to get cute and you simply play Paul Goldschmidt ($4,800). Quintana is not a bad pitcher by any means and has typically limited hard contact (30-32%) and HR/9 of 1-1.2 against right-handers and if this were any other slate we may be inclined to pivot away from Arizona – heck, even Vegas has them with only a 4.83 run projection which is second highest on the slate!
This play is less about the opposing pitcher and more about the hitting conditions and outside of Goldschmidt we can target a plethora of cost-effective right-handed bats in Chris Iannetta ($2,400) and Nick Ahmed ($2,300) or build a mini-stack with Goldy and Yasmany Tomas ($3,700).
Minnesota Twins versus Chris Tillman: Tillman is a career reverse splits pitcher giving up 31% hard contact and 1.4 HR/9 to right-handed batters and will have to face two of the best power bats on this slate in Miguel Sano ($4,000) and Brian Dozier ($3,800). I love the mini-stack here of the top Twins right-handed bats as we have the salary savings at pitcher to pay up in a few select hitting spots and with others flocking towards the Indians high team total or Chase Field, it may leave the Twins hitters under-owned!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Trevor Bauer ($7,800)
C: Chris Iannetta ($2,400)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,800)
2B: Brian Dozier ($3,800)
3B: Miguel Sano ($4,000)
SS: Nick Ahmed ($2,300)
OF: Yasmany Tomas ($3,700)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,500)
OF: Bradley Zimmer ($2,400)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate to me seems relatively straight forward for GPP’s as I expect the majority of the ownership to go to Berrios/Stroman which means we can really differentiate by pivoting at SP. Hitting wise the Indians have the highest team total but this is not an offense I have had much success stacking and they face a talented pitcher in Lisalverto Bonilla so I am going to look to stick with the Arizona righties/Twins power bats and will play elite talent one-off’s like Khris Davis or Indians prospect Bradley Zimmer.
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (Main)
Chris Sale ($11,800): The Main Slate has a variety of pitching options to choose from and I certainly can understand the thought process around trying to pivot down to an arm like Luis Severino or Charlie Morton but frankly I see no reason to pivot off the best arm in DFS – Chris Sale.
Sale comes into this game in elite form with double-digit strikeouts in eight straight games, he is a massive (-260) favorite and the Rangers have the lowest implied team total on the slate. Sale has a 38.6% K rate this season and the Rangers have the fourth highest K rate this season in all of baseball against left-handed pitching.
One night after we had to pay $13k for Clayton Kershaw, paying “only” $11.8k for Sale seems like a steal in comparison and we can still get $3k/hitter even when we lock in Sale. The reality is there is no other hurler on this slate that has the upside that Sale does and we could realistically see him outscore the next closest pitcher by 15-20 points. It may seem like a cop-out but I am not trying to get cute tonight, pay up for Sale and move on.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
New York Mets: One of the reasons I think it makes sense to pay up for Sale is that the hitting options on this slate are mediocre and there is no spot I think we absolutely “need” like we did last night in Arizona.
Slates like this allow us to veer a bit off the Vegas totals and look to the mid-level run projections for interesting stacks. The Mets bats stand out as one of the best stacks to target as they face off against Jared Cosart in Citi Field. Cosart has yet to go past 5 innings this season so this could be a bullpen game for San Diego and the Mets offense is coming off a 9 run outing last night that forced the Padres to go to their pen early in that outing as well!
Michael Conforto ($4,200) is simply on another level right now and is hitting the baseball hard seemingly in every at bat. Conforto had two home runs last night and as now put up 22 or more FanDuel points in four of his last five outings. Jay Bruce left the game with back tightness last night which could force Terry Collins to adjust the heart of the order meaning we could see Conforto followed by, Jose Reyes ($2,900), Curtis Granderson ($2,800) and Neil Walker ($3,200).
Atlanta Braves: The Braves have a projected run total of 5, the third highest on the main slate and even without Freddie Freeman, this is a great stack to target tonight against RHP Trevor Williams. Williams is a mid-teens strikeout pitcher with a 2HR/9 career line and the Braves have some intriguing options that will likely be over-looked on this slate.
Matt Adams ($2,400) has joined the Braves and hit the ground on fire, going 5 for his first 9 with 2 home runs, 4 RBI’s and 60 FanDuel points in two games. If you are paying up for Sale, Adams is the perfect salary saving option with upside to slot in at 1B. Nick Markakis ($2,900) and Dansby Swanson ($2,800) are additional cost-effective stacking options to build around Adams as I would expect most to pair Adams with Matt Kemp/Ender Inciarte so this gives us a bit of a contrarian stack in an ideal hitting spot!
FanDuel MLB: Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Chris Sale ($11,800)
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C: 2K Punt
1B: Matt Adams ($2,400)
2B: Neil Walker ($3,200)
3B: Jose Reyes ($2,900)
SS: Dansby Swanson ($2,800)
OF: Michael Conforto ($4,200)
OF: Nick Markakis ($2,900)
OF: Curtis Granderson ($2,800)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is simple – pay up for Chris Sale and watch the line-ups for the value to make it work. Atlanta looks to be a great spot for value bats if you are willing to stack the 4-7 batters and the Mets without Jay Bruce is another spot where we could get some cheap plays to help fit in Sale!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!