Welcome to the Thursday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 12:05PM and 7:10PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Wednesday’s winning GPP scores were well below our season average as it took 234.1 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 57 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.7 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 57 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.7 points.
Wednesday’s split slate Picks and Pivots was a day I want to forget as we were below the cash line across the board but I think it’s the prudent thing to do to look back at our choices and learn from them!
The Early Slate was one that I went into the day knowing I would play light on as the random 6PM Indians game (with weather issues) really was tough to navigate when you have one contest starting 6 hours after lock. Mid-way through the slate we got news that Yasmany Tomas would sit for Arizona which essentially forced me to switch gears entirely, move off of Arizona’s offense and move towards Jose Quintana. Quintana was cruising through the first few innings, Khris Davis (our home run one-off) has already homered and I felt good about our chances for a late afternoon run. Then Quintana’s wheels fell off, the Arizona bats I faded went off for 8 runs and basically anyone not named Khris forgot how to hit. It was one of those days where I am glad I played light!
The Main Slate was interesting in that I had no intention of moving off Chris Sale and even felt OK that he was near 50% owned in GPP’s. The key to my Main Slate was the Mets as I needed them to jump on the Padres early and get into a tired bullpen and as I watched them scuffle and saw Luis Severino mowing down Royals at 10% ownership, I knew it would be a long night!
Ultimately these are good slates to learn from and we go into today with another split slate to break down!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY):
Tyler Anderson ($8,200): If you have been playing DFS the last few days you have no doubt noticed the Rockies racking up fantasy points in Philadelphia but if you have not been paying close attention – you may not realize it has been the pitcher’s who are feasting on a punch-less Philly line-up.
In the first game of the series, German Marquez went 6 innings, striking out 6 batters for 43 FanDuel points and we saw Tyler Chatwood last night go 7 innings, striking out 8 for 55 FanDuel points.
Anderson steps to the mound today coming off three straight outstanding performances with 55, 43 and 32 FanDuel points with two of those three games being in Coors Field. What is most enticing about Anderson is the strikeout numbers as he has racked up 25 strikeouts over those 17 innings while only walking 5 batters.
The Early Slate pitching is actually quite interesting from a tournament perspective as we have some high-end names that are priced down which could lead to ownership being widely spread out.
Masahiro Tanaka ($8,300) sits just $100 more than Anderson and takes on a Royals team we just saw Severino roll over but Tanaka has gotten shelled his last two starts and has not struck out more than 6 batters in any game this season.
Jeff Samardzija ($8,800) heads to Wrigley Field where the wind is blowing in and has struck out 8 or more batters in his last four starts so there is some interesting GPP appeal here with the added narrative of pitching against his former team. The Cubs line-up though is one I rarely pick on so this may be a spot to let others chase but I will say that is Samardzija is expected to be low owned, he does make for a great large field tournament play!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Colorado Rockies versus Vince Velasquez: The Early Slate hitting options today are actually quite plentiful as we have multiple spots to attack which is another great tournament aspect of this abbreviated slate!
Velasquez is pitching to a 7 ERA at home this season with 2.42 HR/9 allowed at home with a 38% hard contact rate! With the way the Rockies are hitting right now – this is one of the best spots to attack and really you can mix and match your exposure here however your roster build breaks out.
For me – I am locking in Charlie Blackmon ($4,500) and Carlos Gonzalez ($3,100) who have put up 98.5 FanDuel points between them in two games so far at Citizen’s Bank Park. CarGo’s price is almost laughable and I expect he will be one of the highest owned players for good reason! If you are stacking this game, I am going to add in D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000) at the top of this line-up who allows you to fill a tough 2B spot on this slate with a solid mid-range price point!
Washington Nationals against Ariel Miranda: Miranda takes the mound in Washington today as a left-hander who struggles to put away right-handed hitters and will be facing a line-up LOADED with them!
Miranda this season has already given up 8 HR’s to RHB (1.93 HR/9) while allowing over 53% fly balls which means we can home run hunt here with the Nationals bats. Trea Turner ($3,600) is my favorite play here as his combination of power/speed make him an elite play at this price point and I will look to pair him with Ryan Zimmerman ($3,700) who is absolutely demolishing LHP this season with a .396 BA and 40% hard-contact rate.
Tampa Bay Rays versus Daniel Wright: Daniel Wright checks all the boxes for a pitcher we can stack against – a career 12% K rate with a near 7% walk rate while giving up over 34% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate.
The Rays may go over-looked in this spot with other “sexier” names available but this is a squad with massive home run upside and Corey Dickerson ($3,900) may be one of the hottest hitters in baseball with 6 home runs in his last 8 games. Evan Longoria at only ($2,800) makes for an interesting addition to a mini-stack or you can even pivot at 1B and play Logan Morrison ($3,700) at the same price point as Ryan Zimmerman if you want to make multiple entries off the same core – which as you all know, I do!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Tyler Anderson ($8,200)
C: Mike Zunino ($2,200)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($3,700)
2B: D.J. LeMahieu ($3,000)
3B: Evan Longoria ($2,800)
SS: Trea Turner ($3,600)
OF: Charlie Blackmon ($4,500)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez ($3,100)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($3,900)
Slate Overview: Now THIS is a fun Early Slate. Yesterday I knew going into the slate I was going to play light as the random 6PM game and overall lack of great options made the slate feel bland. This slate however I love and I will likely play rather heavy as we have a variety of solid pitching options all in the same price tier which makes roster build rather easy and with so many great offenses to target – believe me, we didn’t even talk about Pittsburgh/Atlanta which has the highest total on the slate – we should see ownership spread out which is exactly what we want on short slates like this!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (MAIN):
Robbie Ray: ($9,200) versus Milwaukee: Over the last two seasons no pitcher on the slate has a higher K rate than the Arizona left-hander (28.3%) and today faces a Brewers team that has the second highest K rate against LHP this season (25%). You do not need me to spell it out for you – this is the perfect tournament pitching option for those who want K upside!
Ray is absolutely deadly to LHB with a 36% strikeout rate this season and with some of the biggest threats on Milwauke (Thames/Shaw) hitting from the left-side you wonder if Milwaukee will consider some rest days to load up right-handed bats against Ray.
Ray is only the third most expensive pitcher on this slate as Justin Verlander (against Houston) and Jacob deGrom (home versus SD) are the two higher priced pitchers but both of those guys have red flags that make Ray my clear choice tonight.
Verlander is a massive +170 road underdog and Houston has the second highest implied team total on the Main Slate.
deGrom meanwhile is coming off a masterful 9 strike-out outing versus the Angels but dealt with a blister that forced him to leave that start. I am a Mets fan for those of you not aware so I know full well the Mets medical staff is capable of turning a blister into a Tommy John surgery/arm amputation so I am inherently nervous about paying $11k for deGrom with a blister issue!
Ray to me has the K upside I am looking for when picking a GPP arm and the match-up is essentially perfect for him so I am happy to take the cost savings and lock in Ray which allows me $3.2k per batter!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Detroit Tigers versus Mike Fiers: On the Main Slate I absolutely love the Tigers stack and they will be at the core of my line-up build tonight as a result of their match-up with Mike Fiers.
So far this season Fiers has given up 11 home-runs in 17 innings of work versus right-handed batters with a massive 40% hard contact rate and you know who has a line-up full of power hitting right-handed bats? Yep, the Tigers!
J.D. Martinez ($3,700), Justin Upton ($2,800) and Ian Kinsler ($3,300) are my top three favorite plays here as the combination of match-up and reasonable price points make them an ideal stack if you are paying up at SP.
New York Mets versus RHP Dinielson Lamet: SWEEP THE LEG! Ok, Sorry – how could I not make a Daniel-son joke here. The Mets will take on a rookie RHP making his MLB debut and although they let me down last night, I am going right back to the well here tonight!
Lamet, like any rookie, is going to be tough to analyze with no MLB data, but there is nothing about his minor league profile that makes me want to avoid a 24 year old with a a 3.23 ERA in AAA. Michael Conforto ($4,500) remains an elite play as a one-off or part of a stack at the top of the Mets line-up and I will look to pair him with Jose Reyes ($2,700) who now has SS eligibility on FanDuel and Lucas Duda ($2,400) who will likely bat clean-up again tonight with Jay Bruce nursing an injury.
FanDuel MLB: Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Robbie Ray ($9,200)
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C: Austin Hedges ($2,300)
1B: Lucas Duda ($2,400)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($3,300)
3B: Jake Lamb ($4,100) Lamb is perhaps the top overall hitter on the board and makes for a great one-off play against Zach Davies who has given up 1.9 HR/9 and 34% hard-contact to LHB.
SS: Jose Reyes ($2,700)
OF: Michael Conforto ($4,500)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($3,700)
OF: Justin Upton ($2,800)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is one that I believe we need to pay up for at SP and we can do that while still stacking some high-upside offenses. There are a variety of weather issues that could pop up so it will be critical to watch the weather as we get closer to lock as well!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates