Nylon Calculus: The Warriors might be the most volatile team ever

The defining moment for the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors came on Mar. 29, when they upended an early 23-3 deficit to claim their only regular-season victory over the San Antonio Spurs. Subsequently, in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, with the two rivals squaring off once again, history repeated itself. The Spurs built another huge first-half lead (25 points), which melted away amidst a downpour of second-half 3s from the Warriors. Ultimately, Golden State won again.

For San Antonio, it was like Groundhog Day, except if Bill Murray had sprained his ankle stepping in Punxsutawney Phil’s burrow and Director Harold Ramis had to rely on Andie MacDowell and Chris Elliott to carry the film in the second act. [Note: If you’re too young for this metaphor, substitute this more modern pop-culture reference: “like Deja Vu except without Denzel”, or — only if absolutely necessary — “like The Source Code without Jake Gyllenhaal”].

Of course, the Spurs are not the only team to fall victim to the Warriors mood swings this season. All year long, Golden State’s M.O. has been sporadic stretches of distracted play interspersed with periods of hyper-focused attention to detail. The result has been a slew of wild runs — with the Warriors winning 38 separate quarters by 15 points or more and losing another 8 quarters by the same margin. That’s by far the most blowout quarters turned in by any team this season.

It’s not a big surprise to see that the Warriors led the league in +15-point quarters — they were the team with the best record after all (67-15) and they averaged the largest margin of victory (+11.6 points per game). Still, the difference in the number of +15-point quarters between the Warriors in first place (38) and the Los Angeles Clippers in second (19) is startling — the Dubs doubled them up. At a blowout-quarter rate of 11.6 percent, Golden State fans could expect to see a +15-point swing once every nine quarters — nearly once every other game.

It’s also interesting to see how diametrically opposed the Spurs are to the Warriors on the volatility scale. Despite laying claim to the second-best average margin of victory in the league (+7.2 points per game), weaponized 3-point capabilities (No. 1 in team 3-point field goal percentage), and a defense designed to throttle opposing offenses (No. 1 team defensive rating); the Spurs rarely won a quarter by 15 points or more — it happened just 10 times all season.

Compared to the 80 other teams of their quality in NBA history (i.e., any team with an average margin of victory of at least +7.0 points per game since 1960, the first year with available data), the 2017-Spurs ranked as the 68th-most volatile team (16th percentile).

Indeed, during the Popovich era, San Antonio has generally been on the less-volatile end of the spectrum, as exemplified by the least-explosive great team in NBA history: the championship-winning 1999 Spurs. Tim Duncan and the gang won only five quarters by 15 points or more that season and lost just one by that margin. Even after prorating for the lockout-shortened season, those totals equate to a miniscule rate of one blowout for every 33 quarters, or 8+ games.

At the polar opposite of 1998-99 Spurs, the 2016-17 Golden State Warriors sit as the most volatile team on the chart (likely the most volatile team in NBA history). In addition to racking up far more +15-point quarters than any other great regular-season team in NBA lore, the Warriors also matched the maximum number of -15-point quarters in this group. Obviously, many bad teams have experienced blowout quarters more frequently than Golden State did this year, but for a team of their quality, a mark of eight -15-point quarters (2.4 percent) has never been surpassed.

The previous two iterations of the Warriors are the No. 2 and No. 3-most volatile teams on the list and the 2014 NBA-Champion Spurs aren’t far behind. The top-5 is rounded out by the destined-to-be upset 2006-07 Dallas Mavericks featuring MVP Dirk Nowitzki and the peak seven-seconds-or-less 2004-05 Phoenix Suns. Honorable mention is given to the 1994-95 Orlando Magic (Shaq/Penny), the 1994-95 Seattle Supersonics (Payton/Kemp), the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers (Wilt/West), the 1970-71 Milwaukee Bucks (Kareem/Oscar), and the 1959-60 Boston Celtics (Russell/Cousy).

So why is it, exactly, that the Warriors are so explosive and the Spurs tend to be more methodical? To find out, I built a few simple regression models using team data from the 2016-17 season. I found that the number of +15-point quarters is a function of a team’s average margin of victory (the most important factor), their pace (the second-most important factor), and the game-to-game variance in the number of 3-point field goals they made (a potentially important factor, which was not statistically significant here). Intuitively, these explanatory factors make sense and you can see just how much the Warriors differ from the Spurs in these categories.

Both teams are good enough to blow out their opponents. However, whereas the Warriors play at close to the league’s fastest pace (99.8 possessions per game, fourth in the NBA), the Spurs play much more slowly (94.2 possession per game, 27th in the NBA), which limits their offensive ceiling. Moreover, the Warriors 3-point totals tend to vary a lot from game to game (sixth-highest variance in the number of made three-point field goals per game), while the Spurs are more consistent (29th in NBA). The Warriors toaster-like tendency for hot streaks helps to explain why they were more likely than the Spurs to score in bunches.

The Warriors have continued to accumulate +15-point quarters at a league-leading clip in the postseason, tallying three against the Portland Trail Blazers in the opening round, two against the Utah Jazz in the Western Conference Semifinals, and one against the Spurs in the Western Conference Finals. Those six instances represent a rate of one blowout every eight quarters (12.5 percent), very similar to the cadence they established in the regular-season: relax, batter, repeat.

Next: Will Andre Iguodala's health be the biggest factor in the 2017 NBA Finals?

This year’s Warriors haven’t been as consistently good as they were during their record-breaking 2015-16 regular season; however, they have been more explosive. A week from now the finals will start and we’ll find out if this more-volatile version of the Warriors — with its higher highs and lower lows — has what it takes to get over the championship hump this time around.