Will Andre Iguodala’s health be the biggest factor in the 2017 NBA Finals?

When the Raptors acquired P.J. Tucker before this year’s trade deadline, they thought they finally had the piece they needed to slow down LeBron James in the postseason. It’s not that Tucker is necessarily known as a “LeBron stopper,” but many believed he at least had the strength and length to match up with James and give the Raptors a chance of beating the Cavaliers in a seven-game series. That, of course, was not the case with James making light work of Tucker, DeMarre Carroll and everyone else on the Raptors, to the tune of 36.0 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game on 57.3 percent shooting from the field. The Cavaliers won the series with a sweep.

Now the Raptors have to decide if it’s worth bringing Tucker, a 32-year-old unrestricted free agent, back even though he’s not the answer to the biggest question standing between them and a potential run at the NBA Finals. Such is life today’s NBA, especially in the Eastern Conference where James still reigns supreme.

The reality is nobody can shut down James entirely anymore. As ESPN’s Tom Haberstroh explained last season, there was only one player in 2015-16 who kept James to less than 21.0 points per 100 possessions: Marcus Morris (20.5). There were an additional three players who allowed James to score less than 28.5 points per 100 possessions: Andre Iguodala (21.0), Thabo Sefolosha (21.6) and Kawhi Leonard (28.3). That basically means James scored at a similar rate to this season’s Joe Johnson (20.3) and Harrison Barnes (28.2) when one of those four players defended him, both of which aren’t bad marks by most players’ standards. Against everyone else in the league, however, James turned into Kevin Durant with an average of 36.0 points per 100 possessions.

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The name that should jump out from that list is Iguodala because he’s the only player remaining in these playoffs who has had some success guarding James in the past. Beyond the numbers from last season, Iguodala was named the MVP of the 2015 NBA Finals when the Cavaliers were without Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving largely due to his individual defense on James. According to Matt Moore of CBS Sports, James averaged 26.0 points per 36 minutes on 38.1 percent shooting from the field when Iguodala was on the floor in that series compared to 35.0 points per 36 minutes on 44.0 percent shooting when Iguodala was on the bench. While James still put up historic numbers across the board, Iguodala made sure he didn’t do it efficiently.

Iguodala’s shining moment in that series may have been in Game 4 when he helped contain James to 20 points on 22 shot attempts in Cleveland to prevent the Warriors from falling into a 3-1 series deficit. He held James scoreless in the fourth quarter and the Warriors took advantage by outscoring the Cavaliers by 15 points. Iguodala also had success guarding James in the 2016 NBA Finals before a back injury limited him down the stretch. Once again, his contributions on the defensive end of the floor played a pivotal role in the Warriors taking a 3-1 lead, which is why many believed he was on his way at the time to earning back-to-back Finals MVPs before James carried the Cavaliers to three straight victories.

Just take at the following chart to get an idea of Iguodala’s impact against James. The 94.1 points per 100 possessions the Cavaliers averaged in 2015 with Iguodala and James on the court was worse than what the 76ers averaged this season (100.7). Their mark of 103.6 points per 100 possessions in 2016 wasn’t much better, either, putting them on the same level as this season’s Lakers (103.4) or Mavericks (103.7).

It’s no surprise when you see what Iguodala is capable of doing on defense. This possession from Game 4 of the 2016 NBA Finals in particular shows off his skills perfectly. Not only does he funnel James into James Michael McAdoo’s help defense on the initial drive, he closes out out on Love to take away the 3-pointer, then switches back onto James and blocks his shot at the rim. Iguodala couldn’t have defended a sequence involving the two All-Stars any better.

Combine Iguodala’s speed, athleticism, strength and IQ with Green’s ability to protect the rim and it explains how the Warriors defend superstars such as James Harden and LeBron James better than other teams. Green’s versatility as a defender almost acts as a safety blanket because Iguodala can take more risks knowing opponents shoot only 44.0 percent at the basket against Green. In the rare cases where they do beat him off the dribble, Iguodala can at least funnel the likes of James towards Green’s help defense to make every shot as difficult as possible.

In the 2016 NBA Finals, the Cavaliers did all they could to get Iguodala switched off of James by attacking early in transition or having wings set screens on him in the hope of forcing a switch. In those situations, Iguodala often made his presence known by helping off of his assignment to take away driving lanes for James. Even when Matthew Dellavedova relocates to the weak side on this possession, for example, Iguodala still has a foot in the lane in case James tries to drive. It’s amazing how the Warriors load up on him without giving up easy passing lanes for 3-pointers.

Where it begins to get interesting as it pertains to the 2017 NBA Finals is James is playing some of the best basketball of his career while Iguodala has struggled to establish any sort of rhythm in these playoffs. In 11 games, Iguodala is averaging 6.5 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists on 41.8 percent shooting from the field and 11.1 percent from the 3-point line. It doesn’t help that James has also been knocking down his jump shot at a higher rate this season. That development alone makes him much tougher to defend for Iguodala because they can’t give him the amount of breathing room they normally would.

We saw that in Game 5 and 6 of the 2016 NBA Finals when James recorded back-to-back 41 point games, both of which led to Cavaliers victories. Iguodala can make his life more difficult than most, but there’s not much anyone can do when James’ jump shot is falling like it was.

Furthermore, Iguodala has been dealing with a knee injury that kept him out of Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals against the Spurs. Without knowing the severity of the injury, it’s possible the Warriors have lowered Iguodala’s minutes in anticipation of the facing James and the Cavaliers for the third consecutive season. Iguodala had to chase Kevin Durant around for seven games in last season’s Western Conference Finals before facing James in seven games in the NBA Finals. Following Kawhi Leonard’s injury in Game 1, it may have been in their best interest to keep Iguodala as fresh as possible knowing they could win in four games without him.

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The Warriors do have other options when it comes to defending James. Kevin Durant is coming off of the best defensive season of his career and his length can be a deterrent for any perimeter player. Klay Thompson is also a physical defender who can switch onto James when needed. But it’s no secret that Iguodala is the closest player on this roster to being whatever counts as a “LeBron stopper” anymore. It’s a matchup he takes personally and it allows Durant, Thompson and Stephen Curry to save more of their energy for offense. For that reason, Iguodala’s health could be one of the deciding factors in the 2017 NBA Finals.