Welcome to the Friday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Thursday’s winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 244.8 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 58 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.4 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 58 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.4 points.
Thursday’s Picks and Pivots were a mixed bag as the Early Slate was a big dud but the Main Slate more than made up for it!
On the Early Slate we locked in Tyler Anderson as our starting pitcher who delivered with 43 FanDuel points in a no-decision against the Phillies but our Tampa Bay/Rockies stacks completely fell flat which left us well below the cash line.
The Main Slate was a different story and an interesting one to look back on the morning after. Robbie Ray was our preferred target in a high upside strikeout match-up with the Brewers and he delivered with a 9 K, 58 FanDuel point performance but it took some guts to stick with him as once Jacob deGrom was scratched, it was clear Ray would become chalk! From a hitter perspective we loaded up on Tigers bats against an HR prone reverse splits pitcher in Mike Fiers and they came through in a big way, specifically JD Martinez and Justin Upton who both homered and but up 30 and 37 FD points respectively while our teams put up 175 FD points on the Main Slate!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick:
The Starting Pitching on the Main Slate seems relatively straight-forward as we are loaded with top end aces like Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Chris Archer and Jake Arrieta. The ownership is going to be heavily driven towards the top tier on this slate so any deviation from the top 4 should be contrarian on this slate and allow you a totally different roster build.
Aaron Nola ($8,100) sits as the 10th highest priced pitcher and has a home match-up against the Reds that I believe we should look to target aggressively. Nola is the fifth highest favorite (-156) on the board and the Reds have a mediocre 4 run projected total even in a hitter’s ballpark like Citizen’s Bank Park.
Nola has a 24% K rate over the last two seasons which is the fifth highest mark of any SP on this slate and has the kind of pitching arsenal that allows him to succeed in hitter’s parks. Nola has a mid to high 90’s fastball with a hard 90’s sinker that drives a massive 53% ground ball rate and minimal 25% hard contact rate.
Nola came off the disabled list prior to his last start against Pittsburgh, threw 89 pitches of 7 inning ball while striking out 5 batters for 37 FanDuel points. Nola actually has some exceptional BvP against the Reds as well, limiting them to .179 average in 40 at bats while striking them out at a 28% rate.
If you are looking for a pivot in the same price range, I like Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,700) as a another low-owned, high upside arm against the Mariners. E-Rod is the second largest favorite on the board (-180), has a 27.8% K rate this season (up 6% from last year) and faces a Mariners team in the bottom three in all of baseball against LHP in terms of wOBA/ISO.
I can understand wanting to pay up at SP tonight but I think there are enough warts on those arms where I am fine fading the expensive chalk. Scherzer has failed to pitch longer than 6 innings and get more than 37 FanDuel points in each of his last two starts, deGrom is dealing with a blister issue, Archer is not pitching at home (aka, time to fade) and Arrieta is on the road against a lefty heavy Dodgers line-up.
Would it shock me to see one of these pitcher’s dominate tonight? Of course not, but I can drop down to a solid mid-tier and target arms that will be owned in the single digit’s that allow us a completely different roster build!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
This slate is setting up to have some very clear chalk options as we have a game in Coors FIeld with a 10.5 run projection so we will see the usual rush to jam as many of these over-priced hitters into line-ups as possible! Similar to our approach at SP, if you simply pivot away from the obvious on this slate and dig just a little deeper you will find some great contrarian plays!
Baltimore versus Houston (Gausman versus Musgrove): The one game that stands out to me as a phenomenal game stack is in Houston where we should get 80 degree weather and an open roof against two pitchers that have been exploitable all season long.
Houston gets to take on Kevin Gausman, a pitcher with a 15% K rate, 10% walk rate who is giving up 34% hard contact and nearly 2 HR/9 on the road so far this year. Gausman has given up 19 hits over his last 9 innings of work and with his pitch to contact style and lack of strikeout ability, the Astros could put up a massive number at home.
Gausman has no material split difference (giving up slightly harder contact/more HR’s to RHB) so we can realistically stack any and all of the Houston bats here but with the salary savings we get at SP, I will stay with the top end guys and lock in Jose Altuve ($3,800), Carlos Correa ($3,800), George Springer ($3,400) and Carlos Beltran ($2,900).
On the Baltimore side of this game, they will take on Joe Musgrove, who has given up 8 HR’s in 29 innings of work at home this season and is coming off a 3 inning 7 run outing in his last start against the Indians. The Orioles big bats of Chris Davis ($3,500) and Manny Machado ($3,800) are my top targets here but do not overlook J.J. Hardy ($2,400) who is 3 for 3 against Musgrove with 2 home runs in his short career!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Aaron Nola ($8,100)
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C: Gary Sanchez ($3,300)
1B: Chris Davis ($3,500)
2B: Jose Altuve ($3,800)
3B: Manny Machado ($3,800)
SS: Carlos Correa ($3,800)
OF: George Springer ($3,400)
OF: Carlos Beltran ($2,900)
OF: Rickie Weeks ($2,400)
Slate Overview: If you are a GPP player, this is the kind of slate you love as we have some completely obvious spots that are going to stand out to the masses so any deviation will give you a totally different look from the rest of the field. By option to pay down at SP, as you can see in this sample line-up, I can build a well-rounded high upside line-up with $3k-$4k bats that those who chase the high-priced arms or Coors Field will not be able to match. Dig a little deeper today in your research – do not just blindly play the “obvious” guys and you can build line-ups with ownership in the single digits come lock!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!