Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 2:10 and 7:15PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s winning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 244.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 59 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.2 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 59 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.2 points.
Friday’s FanDuel slate ended up being one where playing the chalk was the only way to end the night above the cash line as a 35%-40% owned Max Scherzer dominated the Padres for 13 strikeouts and 72 FanDuel points!
Picks and Pivots took the approach of paying down at pitcher and loading up on bats in the Baltimore/Houston game which considering it ended 2-0, well you know how our night ended up!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY):
Zack Greinke ($10,600) at Milwaukee: One of the reasons I spend time each day looking back at the previous night’s slate is that we can sometimes gain valuable insight into the roster approach that the masses take in large field GPP’s.
Last night Max Scherzer had a juicy match-up as a massive -200+ favorite at home against a Padres team that strikes out at one of the highest rates against RHP in all of baseball. Sitting right below him price-wise was Jacob deGrom, a slight road underdog against a weak Pittsburgh line-up. When line-ups locked, Mad Max was in 35% or more of GPP’s line-ups while Jacob deGrom was under 5% owned.
Now let’s look at today – Stephen Strasburg is a -260 favorite at home against the same Padres team that Scherzer just dominated and is the highest priced pitcher on the slate. Sitting just below him in price is Zack Greinke, a slight road underdog against the Brewers. Sounds familiar huh?
Now we may not see a 35% to 5% ownership disparity today but it is certainly worth noting the similarities in how people attacked this situation last night. Recency bias may also drive more folks to pay up for Strasburg here after they just saw what Scherzer did to the Padres!
The question for me is, if Strasburg is the chalk can we afford to fade him? The one red flag I have here is the K rate which is at 24%, a 6% drop from last year and the lowest mark of his MLB career. At $11k, we are looking for a massive outing from Strasburg but the reality is he only has two double-digit strikeout games this season and has only eclipsed the 50 FD point mark in two of his nine starts.
If the ownership trends hold then I am going to pivot all my exposure to Greinke who has a 30% K rate this season and has put up 58 or more FanDuel points in three of his last six starts. The Brewers have the third highest K rate against RHP this season and although they do have a ton of power potential, this is a spot where the risk can certainly outweigh the reward.
For only $500 more I would expect the majority of people to take the “safer” match-up against the Padres and pay up for Strasburg which could leave Greinke largely over-looked with the potential to be a complete difference maker in GPP’s.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Washington Nationals versus LHP Clayton Richard: As of this writing the Nationals have the highest team total on the early slate and from a stacking perspective have one of the more straight-forward match-ups on the board.
Richard dominates left-handed hitters with a massive 80% ground ball rate but against RHB he has a 33% hard contact rate and gives up 1.3 HR/9. The right-handed bats of the Nationals are all in play here and the price points are reasonable enough where we can load up across the board. I will be looking to build around a red-hot Anthony Rendon ($3,700), Trea Turner ($3,700) and Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400) in my line-ups today as a cost-effective right-handed heavy stack!
Philadelphia Phillies against Bronson Arroyo: Any time Arroyo is on the mound we need to look to the opposing team as a stacking option and the Phillies get the lucky draw today against one of the worst pitchers in baseball.
Arroyo this season has given up a 37% hard contact rate to hitters from both sides of the plate, giving up 15 home runs in 46 IP which equates to 2.89 HR/9 which is the third highest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 40 innings of work – just behind Mike Fiers and Jered Weaver – two of the usual pitchers we stack against!
The best part about the Phillies is that the prices are so deflated that we can easily pay up at SP on this slate while still building a high upside stack. Aaron Altherr ($3,500), Michael Saunders ($2,700) and Odubel Herrera ($2,600) can all be stacked in the OF and we can pair them with a high upside home run hitter behind the plate in Cameron Rupp ($2,600).
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview (EARLY):
P: Zack Greinke ($10,600)
C: Cameron Rupp ($2,600)
1B: Ryan Zimmerman ($3,400)
2B: Daniel Descalso/Scooter Gennett ($2,200)
3B: Anthony Rendon ($3,700)
SS: Trea Turner ($3,700)
OF: Aaron Altherr ($3,500)
OF: Odubel Herrera ($2,600)
OF: Michael Saunders ($2,700)
Slate Overview: On the Early Slate I think paying up for SP is a must as the mid-tier/low-range is not a spot with a ton of upside relative to the high-priced arms. If Strasburg is the chalk at $11k then I am happy to play the fade even though it burned me on Friday night but I will look to pivot to Greinke for $500 cheaper and a fraction of the ownership and build my hitters around the Nationals/Phillies bats!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (MAIN):
Zack Wheeler ($7,900): We saw last night that right-handed strikeout arms can dominate the Pirates line-up and even on the road opposing Gerrit Cole, Vegas has installed Wheeler has a -130 road favorite in this spot!
The pitching on the main slate is underwhelming and I am not going to pay over $10k for Dallas Keuchel in his first start off the DL so paying down at pitcher and saving for bats is my preferred approach.
Wheeler comes into this game with 30+ FanDuel points in each of his last three starts and will take on a Pirates team dead last in team ISO versus RHP and bottom five in all of baseball in team wOBA against right-handers.
The price point is incredibly fair and the Pirates have the second lowest implied team total of any team on the Main Slate so paying under $8k for Wheeler seems like a safe bet in this spot and allows significant roster flexibility when picking our hitters.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Coors Field: We have a five game slate and a game in Coors Field with a 10.5 projected run total – this will be the chalk and I get why, but on a five game slate the ownership will be insanely high and I will play the game theory here and fade it – for better or for worse!
Houston Astros versus Wade Miley: The Astros let me down last night but I am going back to them today as they face off with LHP Wade Miley in Minute Maid Park. Miley this season is giving up 35% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate but it is RHB that he has struggled with as his K rate drops to 21%, his walk rate increased to 14% and his HR/9 jumps to 1.13.
The Astros are loaded with right-handed bats and I will look to full on stack here with the usual suspects – Evan Gattis ($3,200), Jose Altuve ($3,800), Carlos Correa ($4,000) and George Springer ($3,300). The prices are reasonable enough where we can easily stack them while paying down at SP and with 80 degree temperatures, we can hope the roof stays open which would further boost this match-up.
Mets LHB versus Gerrit Cole: Many will likely stay away from the “name” pitcher here in PNC Park but if you dig into the numbers a bit more you will see that Cole has really struggled with LHB this season and faces a Mets lineup littered with them!
So far this season, Cole has given up a 38% hard contact rate and 1.59 HR/9 to left-handed hitters while seeing his K rate drop to only 19.5%. The Mets are loaded with left-handed power bats, starting with Michael Conforto ($4,100) and Jay Bruce ($3,700), but do not overlook Lucas Duda ($2,700) who has 25+ FanDuel points in three of his last four starts!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Zack Wheeler ($7,900)
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C: Evan Gattis ($3,200)
1B: Lucas Duda ($2,700)
2B: Jose Altuve ($3,800)
3B: Aaron Hill ($2,300)
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,000)
OF: George Springer ($3,300)
OF: Michael Conforto ($4,100)
OF: Jay Bruce ($3,700)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is only five games and with a game in Coors Field, I think it is safe to say we know where the ownership will go. If you are playing cash games then you simply eat the chalk but for GPP’s you need to play the game theory angle here and play an all out fade and look to teams like the Astros/Mets to differentiate you from the field!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!