Welcome to the Sunday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 1:05PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Saturday’swinning GPP scores were below our season average as it took 245.3 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 60 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.9 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 60 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 258.9 points.
Saturday’s Picks and Pivots, like many GPP days was a mixture of highs and lows. On the Early Slate we took the stand to fade the 30% chalk Stephen Strasburg and just like Friday Night’s Max Scherzer fade, it blew up in our face!
The Main Slate however was much kinder to us as we opted to fade Coors Field and build around the Mets/Astros power bats. We were rewarded early and often as Lucas Duda, Jay Bruce, George Springer and Jose Altuve all put up great games and we got a serviceable start (28 points) from Zack Wheeler which helped us stay above the cash line and erase the early slate defeat!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
If you play DFS and/or write about DFS you know there are slates where you simply need to grind it out, you open the slate up, look it over, sigh and start to dig in hoping you can find something you like. Today is NOT one of those day – I love this slate and was so excited to dive into it!
The pitching on the Main Slate has three of my favorite DFS pitchers on it and all of them are in play today. Matt Shoemaker ($9,500) has three straight starts of 44 or more FanDuel points and as the highest priced pitcher on the slate, I think will be over-looked as people balk at the price which makes him a great GPP option.
Lance McCullers ($9,400) and Michael Pineda ($9,100) are where I expect the majority of the ownership to be today as we get two high strikeout arms at relative bargain priced. Both McCullers and Pineda have K rates above 27%, as they are both ranked inside the top 20 in MLB, they are both massive home favorites, McCullers at -220 and Pineda at -170, and there opponents have two of the lowest run totals on the board. They are both elite plays and the only reason I think you can make the case for a fade is ownership….and the fact there is a guy who is cheaper that I actually like more.
One quick note as I looked over BvP/PvB, McCullers has struck out 53% of the Orioles he has faced in 39 career at-bats. Read that again. Wow.
Joe Ross ($7,500): The last few days in this spot I have advocated the fade of the Nationals RHP against the Padres due to ownership and in both cases, Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg were over 30% owned which in theory was exactly what we wanted. Well, that was until they both went out and dominated as Scherzer put up 72 FD points on the back of 13 K’s and Strasburg decided to one-up him and get 15’s and 76 FD points.
On any other slate I would think the masses, seeing the same match-up today would flock to a guy like Ross but I actually think he will go over-looked with McCullers/Pineda on the hill. Ross comes into today as a -170 favorite and the Padres have one of the lowest team total (4) on the board and he is coming off an 8 inning, 6 K 49 FD point performance against the Mariners.
Ross is absolutely nasty against RHB, with a 24% K rate, a minimal 25% hard hit rate and will take on a mostly right-handed heavy Padres line-up today. What I love about Ross here is that he has the match-up and raw stuff to match guys like Pineda/McCullers and the price discount is substantial enough that you literally get to build an all-star hitting roster.
The last two days we have faded the Nats SP chalk, so today we will fade the SP chalk elsewhere and head to DC for our pitcher. Let’s hope we are on the right side of this one today!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks:
With no Coors Field off this slate and so many pitching options we like, you would think hitting would be tougher to find but the reality is you are going to have a tough time narrowing down which stack you want to target! One of the reasons that paying down to Joe Ross is so perfect for this slate is that you can literally pick and choose which bats you want from the best offenses!
Houston Astros versus Alec Asher: The Astros have the second highest team total on the slate (behind the likely chalk Red Sox), and if you read Picks and Pivots you know this is a team I stack often as the priced tend to be reasonable and the line-up is loaded. Asher gives up 32% hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate but has a HR problem with RHB, giving up 1.76 HR/9 to right-handers this season and well we know the Astros have just a few right-handed bats!
Carlos Correa ($4,000) is the premier play at SS, going 7 for his last 12, and can be paired with teammate George Springer ($3,300) who is priced entirely too low in my opinion for a hitter of his caliber in a hitting environment like this.
Nationals LHB versus Jhoulys Chacin: The Nationals bats come in with a projected run total just a fraction under the Astros and facing Jhoulys Chacin, it is no surprise! The breakdown on Chacin is simple – he really struggles versus LHB, giving up 7 HR so far this season, nearly 3 HR/9 and a 35% hard hit rate – compared to an 18% rate to RHB.
The Nationals stack is pretty easy to identify here as we want to mini-stack the two big left-handed bats today – Bryce Harper ($4,500) and Daniel Murphy ($3,600).
Blue Jays versus Andrew Cashner: Sitting just a fraction of a run below the Nationals are the Toronto Blue Jays which may be one of the spots that gets over-looked today when building DFS stacks! Cashner is a guy who in his career has struggled with LHB, surrendering a 35% hard contact rate so targeting either of the Blue Jays 1B, Justin Smoak ($3,400) or Kendrys Morales ($3,100) as a one-off play here is a great way to attack this spot. Both of this hitters have faced Cashner before, in 3 at-bats each, they both have homered off Cashner. Josh Donaldson ($3,800) has also faced Cashner three times and is 2-3 with a home-run as well and 3B is the one position today I really didn’t see great value so I think paying up for an elite power bat like Donaldson is the best play here!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-Up and Slate Overview:
P: Joe Ross ($7,500)
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C: 2k Punt Option
1B: Justin Smoak ($3,400)
2B: Daniel Murphy ($3,600)
3B: Josh Donaldson ($3,800)
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,000)
OF: George Springer ($3,300)
OF: Carlos Beltran ($2,900)
OF: Bryce Harper ($4,500)
Slate Overview: Today is the day for multiple line-ups as I think you can build a core team while pivoting between Joe Ross, Lance McCullers and Michael Pineda. I very rarely will take that approach as I want to put my flag in the ground with one guy and go to war but this slate to me is one where I will have exposure to all three with the same core line-up! Enjoy this slate and the Memorial Day weekend all!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!