FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – May 29
Welcome to the Monday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 2:10PM and 7:07PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Sunday’s winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 274.2 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 61 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.1 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 61 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.1 points.
Sunday’s winning GPP line-up was built around Lance McCullers, who although he struggled, still managed to rack up 8 K’s and 46 FanDuel points. The stack that won all the money was Tampa/Minnesota which erupted for an 8-6 game with a ton of power and if you paired that with Adam Duvall‘s 2 home run 50 point outing, well you had yourself a day!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (EARLY)
First things first – Happy Memorial Day to all the Picks and Pivots readers out there. If you are an active/retired member of the military or have lost someone who has served our country, thank you for your service. We get to celebrate days like today with BBQ and DFS because of your sacrifices and I hope if you play DFS today, you win all the money!
Looking over the early slate, even with 9 games to choose from the pitching options are quite bare. Carlos Carrasco is the top-tier option at $10.3k, a massive home favorite with a strikeout reputation against a weak hitting line-up in Oakland but is the reputation really worth paying $10.3k for? Carrasco has yet to strike out more than 8 batters in any game this season and although he has flashed 50+ FD point upside twice this season, he also has put up under 30 FD points in each of his last two starts.My guess is Carrasco will be the chalk option on this slate and I have no interest in paying over $10k for a pitcher who has entirely too much bust potential in this spot.
Kyle Hendricks ($9,400) at San Diego: Hendricks to me is the best pivot off Carrasco and although he is not the “sexiest” name, this could be a slate where getting a solid 35-40 FD points is all you need to move over the cash line.
Hendricks is the second largest favorite on the slate, a massive -180 road favorite in San Diego and the Padres have the lowest projected run total of any team on the board. Hendricks has been the model of consistency with 30-40 FD points in each of his last six starts, consistently going 6-7 innings, racking up quality starts while delivering while delivering 5-7 K’s per outing.
What I essentially just described is the perfect cash game pitcher, yet with this being a GPP article you may wonder why I would go this route. In my opinion, this slate is essentially a pick your poison kind of slate at SP where the wrong choice could torpedo your line-up before it ever gets started. Hendricks will be moderately owned, in an ideal match-up and at a price point that allows you the ability to still pay up at hitter. I will bank my 35-40 FD points here, play a strong Carrasco fade and hope that i can get a big leg up on the field!.
David Price ($9,600): The one GPP pivot I do have some interest in is David Price who makes his season debut against the White Sox. Price has struggled in his minor league outings so far this season and will be making his first start at the Major League Level which will scream to most – I will wait and see how he does.
That is exactly why I like him for GPP’s as if the majority of players take that approach and we could get one of the best pitchers in baseball at single digit ownership against a White Sox offense we have attacked all season long.
Price sits just $200 more than Hendricks so you can essentially build the exact same roster and pivot off one spot for $200 of savings and roll out a second line-up with the elite upside Price provides.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY)
Cleveland Indians versus RHP Daniel Mengden: Although we have a game in Coors Field (aka our usual fade Coors approach), the Indians are the top team to target in my opinion today as they have the second highest team total on the slate, even higher than the Mariners in Colorado!
Mengden makes his season debut after four starts in AAA following off-season foot surgery and will take on an Indians team that just destroys RHP. Five of the Indians projected starters today have a hard contact rate of over 37% against RHP and honestly there is not a single Indians batter that is not in play as part of a stack here today.
Jason Kipnis ($3,400) and Michael Brantley ($3,800) are two of the top end options but do not overlook Jose Ramirez ($2,600) at Third Base who has 18 or more FD points in two of his last three games and seems seriously under-priced for this match-up!
New York Mets versus Matt Garza: Matt Garza so far this season has given up 1.93 HR/9 and 36% hard contact to left-handed hitters and will travel to Citi Field to face a line-up loaded with left-handed pop in the New York Mets.
Garza has faced these Mets hitters 140 times in his career and they are batting a cool .286 with 9 home runs with the usual suspects doing most of the damage. Jay Bruce ($3,900) is 12 for 35 (.343) with 3 home runs against Garza and is coming off another strong series in Pittsburgh having score 15+ FD points in each of his last three games.
Michael Conforto ($4,100) got the night off yesterday and should be back in the lead-off spot tonight and with his price point and a game in Coors Field will likely be owned in the single digits. Lucas Duda ($3,000) is simply raking right now and for only $3k is a no brainer hitting in the heart of the Mets line-up as he homered in 3 of his last 4 games, with double-digit FD points in each of his last six games. Last but not least, Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,700) returned to the Mets line-up over the weekend and was batting in the 5 spot on Sunday night which puts him in a prime RBI spot at a reasonable price point!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Kyle Hendricks ($9,400)
C: 2-2.1k Punt Option
1B: Lucas Duda ($3,000)
2B: Jason Kipnis ($3,400)
3B: Jose Ramirez ($2,600)
SS: Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,700)
OF: Michael Brantley ($3,800)
OF: Michael Conforto ($4,100)
OF: Jay Bruce ($3,900)
Slate Overview: The Early Slate seems like it has some clear chalk paths as players will flock to Coors Field and Carlos Carrasco so I think any legit pivot off that is the preferred approach in GPP’s. At starting pitcher I love the match-up that Hendricks has and if the masses truly take a “wait and see” approach on David Price, now is the time to take a low owned tournament shot!
FanDuel MLB: Starting Pitcher Picks (MAIN):
Marcus Stroman ($9,300): The Main Slate is only five games and the pitching options are actually worse than the Early Slate. To me the choices come down to the top two priced arms as price really isn’t an issue on this slate so I think paying up at SP is the right approach.
Although I do like the GPP appeal of Julio Teheran on the road against an Angels team that may be without Mike Trout, the clear top choice in my mind is Marcus Stroman who gets a home start against the Reds.
Stroman is a massive favorite (-200) and his team is projected to score the most runs on the slate so I would expect run support to be plentiful here for the Blue Jays ace. Stroman has put up 40+ FanDuel points in four of his last six starts and the price points is such that we can essentially pick and choose any hitters we want while still locking in the best SP on the slate.
As a special Memorial Day treat courtesy of our friends at the FanDuel Facebook Group, enjoy this $10 Freeroll for today’s Main Slate!
If Trout is ruled out, I will have some exposure to Teheran as a pivot, but that news could also move more of the field in that direction which would actually enhance the tournament appeal of Stroman in this spot!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Tigers versus RHP Jason Hammel: Hammel is a pitcher that we have aggressively targeted all year with stacks, specifically when he is facing a right-handed heavy team as he surrenders 35% hard contact and 2.41 HR/9 against RHB.
The Tigers are a team that in theory we could full on stack but with Ian Kinsler on the DL and J.D. Martinez nursing an injury, we may be better served with a two-man mini-stack here of Miguel Cabrera($3,900) and Justin Upton ($3,000).
Tampa versus Texas: The best game stack on the Main Slate can be found in Texas where we have a 9.5 game total and two pitchers – Erasmo Ramirez and Martin Perez that we can attack with hitters on both sides!
Perez is a pitcher that gives up a ton of hard contact (35% to RHB) but actually limits to HR’s (under 1 HR/9) so if you are playing guys from Tampa, I would look at one-offs instead of a full on stack. If you are a believer in BvP, well this is the spot for you as Evan Longoria ($2,800) is is 6 for 12 with a home run and Derek Norris ($2,700) who is 5 for 11 against Perez.
Erasmo Ramirez is actually the pitcher I would prefer to stack against as he is giving up 42% hard contact to lefties and 37% to righties so far this season! The middle infield for Texas is where I will focus my exposure as the price point for guys like Rougned Odor ($2,700) and Elvis Andrus ($2,800) are under-priced relative to the match-up and help us full two difficult positions on this slate with high upside bats.
Marlins versus Jeremy Hellickson: On a short slate like this, we are going to need to pivot away from the high Vegas total bats if we want to separate ourselves and whenever I take that approach, I want to focus on high upside power bats like we have in Miami.
The Marlins take on Jeremy Hellickson, a pitcher who has given up 35% hard contact and 2 HR/9 on the road this season. Marcell Ozuna ($4,000) and Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800) both have massive home run potential here and will likely be over-looked today at these price points.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Marcus Stroman ($9,300)
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C: Derek Norris ($2,700)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($3,900)
2B: Rougned Odor ($2,700)
3B: Evan Longoria ($2,800)
SS: Elvis Andrus ($2,800)
OF: Justin Upton ($3,000)
OF: Marcell Ozuna ($4,000)
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($3,800)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate only has five games but we have a ton of hitting options we can build around. This is a spot where I think picking mini-stacks or power one-offs is your best approach and with no high-priced pitcher to worry about, we have the salary savings to frankly get whatever bats we want! Enjoy your Memorial Day!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!