FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 3
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 2:15 PM EST and 7:15PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s Main winning GPP scores were above our season average as it took 284.9 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 66 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.9 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 66 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 259.9 points.
Friday’s winning GPP line-up was built around Clayton Kershaw who dominated the Brewers with 14 K’s and 64 FanDuel points and a mixture of high scoring Tigers and Pirates bats that combined for 27 runs! The Pirates were really the stack that differentiated line-ups as their highest producing bats were all under 5% owned against Matt Harvey and with the offensive explosion were able to separate from the rest of the pack!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY):
Johnny Cueto ($9,900): The Early Slate on FanDuel has three pitchers essentially all at the same price point with Cueto, Jon Lester and Carlos Carrasco all taking the hill. My recommendation on this slate is to pay up for one of them and with the price points all being so close it should help to spread out the ownership in tournaments as well!
For my money, Cueto is the arm I am going to trust the most on this slate driven primarily by the recent form of his opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies. Over the last two weeks, the Phillies are dead last in baseball in runs scored, team ISO and team wOBA while striking out at the 9th highest rate!
Digging a bit deeper, the Phillies during that time period also have the lowest hard contact rate (24%) and the third lowest walk rate so across the board we see a line-up that we should look to attack while they are slumping.
We are still waiting for an official line in this game as of this writing but with the Phillies starting Ben Lively, a pitcher making his major league debut with a back-end of the rotation major league profile, I would expect Cueto will open as a massive road favorite.
If Cueto can keep us his recent strikeout output, 8 K’s in each of his last two games, against this Phillies line-up we should be in line for a top-tier performance for under $10k which will set us up well in all formats.
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY):
Detroit Tigers versus Miguel Gonzalez: The Tigers went off on Friday night as one of, if not the top offense on the board, and normally I want to jump off in these spots as they could easily emerge as over whelming chalk. The Tigers have the second highest run projection on the board today so they are not going to sneak up on anyone but the match-up against Miguel Gonzalez has the potential to be a fade at your own risk kind of play!
I believe in BvP as a metric for fantasy baseball and DFS – I do not think it is an absolute guarantee of future performance based on historical results but sometimes the data can jump off the page and the Tigers versus Gonzalez most certainly does.
In 134 at bats, the Tigers are batting a robust .343 against Gonzalez, a pitcher with a mid-teens K rate giving up over 30% hard contact and a fly ball rate 3% higher than his ground ball rate.
Rather than flock towards the big name bats in the Tigers line-up, I am instead going to use them as my preferred value spot with guys like Dixon Machado ($2,000), Friday Night’s lead-off hitter, who can be paired with #2 hitter Nick Castellanos ($2,600) to fill third base. This is a spot where all the Tigers bats are in play however if they are the obvious chalk, you may be better off pivoting off the field here.
Reds versus R.A. Dickey: Oh you got burned last night by the Reds too? That Braves/Reds game stack was a gigantic dud that left me tilted as I watched the Tigers and Pirates rack up fantasy points. You know what – it burned everyone else too which is EXACTLY why you go back to it here.
The Reds have the highest team total on the board and will face off against R.A Dickey, a pitcher with a 1.7 HR/9 this season pitching in the Great American “Small Park.” I absolutely will go back to a full on Reds stack in this spot at a fraction of the ownership as my assumption is everyone will jump on the Tigers bats.
As I mentioned yesterday – take a look at the ISO for the top Reds hitters this season against RHP:
Scott Schebler ($3,100): .287 ISO
Adam Duvall ($3,600): .258 ISO
Joey Votto ($4,300): .255 ISO
Oakland A’s versus Joe Ross: The one under the radar stack I am looking at today is the Oakland A’s against Nationals RHP Joe Ross who is giving up 39% hard contact and over 2 HR/9 this season. The A’s Khris Davis ($3,700) is crushing RHP with a .318 ISO against this season and can be easily paired with a cost-effective play like Jed Lowrie ($2,500) who has a .217 ISO and .381 wOBA against RHP this season.
FanDuel MLB – Sample Early GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Johnny Cueto ($9,900)
C: Matt Wieters ($2,300)
1B: Joey Votto ($4,300)
2B: Dixon Machado ($2,000)
3B: Nick Castellanos ($2,600)
SS: Zack Cozart ($3,500)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,600)
OF: Scott Schebler ($3,100)
OF: Khris Davis ($3,700)
Slate Overview: Watch the chalk on this slate – if we are seeing the Tigers profiled across the industry then I would absolutely jump off and move towards Oakland as my secondary stack in this spot. Make sure you pay up for pitching in the early games and hop back on the Reds stack while the rest of DFS industry pivots away and let’s get ready for some afternoon delight.
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks (MAIN):
Lance McCullers ($9,500): Hi, my name is Brian. (Hi, Brian). I have a Lance McCullers problem and I am not afraid to admit it.
How in the world is this guy still priced under $10k? Over the last two years, McCullers has a 29% K rate which is by far the highest on this slate, Vegas has him as a -160 road favorite in Texas and he has 36 or more FanDuel points in each of his last five starts.
Want to hear something amazing? He is actually not the highest priced pitcher on this slate either – he is $100 cheaper than David Price against Baltimore. Yes, David Price who came off the DL after being hit around in the minor leagues and proceeded to rack up 18 FD points in his first start against the White Sox, giving up 3 ER in 5 IP.
The Rangers have the 10th highest K rate against right-handed pitching this season and McCullers lit them up in his last start with 10 K’s on his way to 47 FanDuel points.
This is a spot where I simply do not care about ownership, I will let the rest of the field try to get cute and find reasons to pivot away but I will lock in the highest upside arm on the slate for under $10k and look to differentiate elsewhere.
Now if you will excuse me, I have a meeting of the Lance McCullers Fan Club to attend before I head to Tyler Anderson Recovery.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Seattle Mariners versus Alex Cobb: The Mariners have been an offense I have actually looked to pick on more this season than stack but today I think the match-up against Alex Cobb is one we should attack with the left-handed bats of the Mariners.
Cobb this season is giving up 40% hard contact and 1.23 HR/9 to left-handed hitters with a 10% walk rate and .341 wOBA.
The Mariners have lost Jean Segura to the DL but they moved Ben Gamel ($3,100) up to the lead-off spot on Friday night and responded with a 13 run outburst! Robinson Cano ($3,600) and Kyle Seager ($3,400) are both priced incredibly low considering their upside and the match-up they face and will be at the core of my line-up build today!
Rays versus Sam Gaviglio: On the other side of this game, the left-handed bats of the Rays are firmly in play against Gavigilio who has given up 2.25 HR/9, 32% hard contact and a minuscule K rate of 9% against LHB this season!
We all know the Rays have massive power upside and this is a spot where I will heavily stack the top of the order with Corey Dickerson ($4,300), Kevin Kiermaier ($3,100) and Logan Morrison ($3,600).
FanDuel MLB – Sample Main Slate GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Lance McCullers ($9,500)
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C: Elias Diaz ($2,000)
1B: Logan Morrison ($3,600)
2B: Robinson Cano ($3,600)
3B: Kyle Seager ($3,400)
SS: JJ Hardy ($2,400)
OF: Ben Gamel ($3,100)
OF: Corey Dickerson ($4,300)
OF: Kevin Kiermaier ($3,100)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is very cut and dry to me – I will have 100% McCullers exposure on this slate. From a hitting perspective I expect many will look to the Astros bats but with a right-handed heavy line-up, that could be a huge issue against a pitcher in Andrew Cashner who dominates right-handers. Instead I will look to stack the Tampa/Seattle game with left-handed power against two pitchers who have struggled to contain hitters from that side of the plate all season.
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates via our Twitter account.