Cleveland Indians: All aboard the Trevor Bauer bandwagon

Indians starting pitcher Trevor Bauer is an enigma, both in both real life and fantasy baseball, but perhaps now is the time to buy in.

Cleveland Indians’ Trevor Bauer is one of the most compelling baseball players to watch. Whether on the mound, at the plate or in an interview. He is outspoken, opinionated and doesn’t settle for clichés. He is dynamic and frustrating in equal measures.

Controversy is never far away from the former third overall pick in the 2011 MLB June Amateur Draft, whether it is the Diamondbacks shipping him out after only four big league starts, or his incendiary additions to political debates or his blood-dripping World Series appearance.

The other controversy that surrounds the right-hander is whether he will ever be able to harness the extraordinary talent that he possesses to become one of the very best starting pitchers in the game. The general consensus of opinion is that he will not. I beg to differ.

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As a starter, he has thrown almost 600 innings with an uninspiring 4.59 ERA and 1.36 WHIP.

Of the 46 starting pitchers to have thrown as many innings since 2014, Bauer has the fourth-highest ERA, just behind Kyle Gibson, Jered Weaver and Wade Miley, and the third-highest walk rate of 3.57 BB/9. It is difficult to maintain life as a starter with those statistics.

The potential is there. On three occasions in 2016, Bauer reached double-digit strikeouts, suggesting the beginning of the much-anticipated leap forward but fantasy owners were continually frustrated, as the failure to command pitches resulted in a lack of consistency.

But this is it. This is the Bauer breakthrough.

The 26-year-old was sensational in his start against Oakland on May 30, striking out a career-high 14 batters. Check out all 14 strikeouts in 14 seconds.

In fact, Bauer has been one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 30 days with an xFIP of 2.49, putting him firmly in the top-10. xFIP is the increasingly popular metric to determine a pitcher’s expected ERA once you take out the elements which are beyond their control (defense, luck, randomness etc. ).

Bauer throws an impressive four-seam fastball with an average velocity of 93.8 MP, but he can reach back to get 97 when needed. His curve is his most devastating pitch, usually resulting in a ground ball or a swing and miss.

This season, he is striking out batters for fun. The rate of 29.1 K% is sixth-best in the league and easily the highest of his career.

You need to add Bauer now before it is too late. Currently, he is owned in 76% of CBS leagues (although that is inflated, partly due to his status as a two-start pitcher for the Indians this week). He is still available in half of Yahoo leagues and 57% of ESPN leagues.

Even if he is owned in your league, you will not have to give up much to get him. Use his 5.83 ERA as a bargaining tool to your advantage.

If you think that the Twins’ Ervin Santana is likely to regress due to his 2.44 ERA being substantially lower than his 4.65 FIP, then at the opposite end of the scale, Bauer’s 4.03 FIP is screaming “BUY LOW”. No other strikeout starter has such a differential between their ERA and FIP.

And don’t wait until his HR/FB rate of 20.4% plummets back towards his career rate of 11.8% because then everyone will see the breakout coming.

Next: Brad Peacock: strikeout leader

Bauer may never win the Cy Young Award, but he is a cerebral young man with the determination to use the latest evaluation techniques to maximize his potential. When it all clicks together, he is sensational. Don’t watch him breakout on another team’s roster.

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