FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 10
Welcome to the Saturday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 2:10 PM and 7:15 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Friday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 274.1 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 73 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.9 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 73 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 260.9 points.
Friday’s Main Slate basically came down to whether or not you wanted to eat the Corey Kluber chalk as he was over 30% owned in GPP’s. Although he was the obvious play, I chose to pivot off him with the same core roster using Brad Peacock and Jordan Montgomery. Although Peacock put up a dud, Montgomery shined with 49 FD points, outscoring Kluber by 6 points at single digit ownership!
The Picks and Pivots core was built around the Mets LHB which were completely neutralized by Julio Teheran and although we did get a big night from Jake Lamb, it was not enough to overcome the DFS rosters that stacked the Rays (13 runs) and the Marlins (12 runs)!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY):
Trevor Williams ($6,600): On the Early Slate we have two (possibly three) clear top arms with Carlos Martinez, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Berrios on the hill however with the prices all in the $9k-$10k range it forces you to miss out on the high-end bats that I believe are a must on this slate.
So instead of chasing the chalk high-priced arms, I will take a similar approach to Friday Night where I drop down to a value arm that I believe is in a great spot to succeed and allows me to stack up the big bats! On this slate the value arms are not as easy to find as they were last night but there is one arm that jumps out to me when you start digging through the numbers – Pirates RHP Trevor Williams.
Williams is a sinker/slider pitcher who will take on the Marlins at home today as a slight home underdog according to Vegas. In his last two starts, Williams has pitched 13 innings, giving up only 2 ER and averaging 32 FD points per start in outings versus the Mets and Arizona.
What really is impressive about Williams is the batted ball profile as he has a 9.4% HR/FB rate (top 20 in the league) and only 27.3% hard contact. Williams has the ability to stifle right-handed bats with a 46% GB rate to RHB versus a minuscule 18% FB rate and will take on a Marlins team that has the highest GB rate (50%) of any team in MLB against right-handed pitching.
So what does this all mean? We have a pitcher who limits hard contact, pitching in an elite pitcher’s park (PNC) and facing a team who has the highest ground ball rate against RHP. If we are rostering Williams we are looking for an effort similar to his last start against the Mets where he struck out only 3, but gave up only 1 ER and racked up the Win/QS bonus for 37 FD points.
Martinez/Samardzija both have the ability to rack up big fantasy numbers but they also have the ability to get shelled if we can stay within shouting distance of those two arms at likely sub 5% ownership, we will have a line-up capable of flying past those who decided to pay up at SP!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY):
Cubs/Rockies: Let’s start here because once the totals come out this game is going to be the chalk du jour. We have a game in Wrigley today with 85 degree temperatures and 20 MPH winds blowing straight out – you simply cannot ignore or fade this spot and I recommend you find a way to get exposure!
Of the two pitchers in this game, Eddie Butler or Jeff Hoffman, I am more inclined to attack Hoffman who in his career has given up 2.5 HR/9 and 38% hard contact to right-handed bats. By dropping down at starting pitcher we have the salary to head right to the two big dogs here in Anthony Rizzo ($4,200) and Kris Bryant ($4,100) who both have ISO’s over .220 against RHP this season and who per the RotoGrinders Plate IQ tool both profile extremely well against the fastball/curve ball combination of Hoffman. Although he is batting 9th, Kyle Schwarber ($2,500) has a similarly impressive .224 ISO this season and makes for a cheap value bat that allows you to wrap-around stack the Cubs!
Houston Astros versus Ricky Nolasco: The Cubs/Rockies will be the place everyone flocks to and I am going to ensure I have exposure there today but the team I will be heavily invested in on the Early Slate is the Houston Astros who have a 5.1 team total and face an absolute perfect match-up against Ricky Nolasco.
Nolasco this season is giving up 3.5 HR/9 and 42% hard contact to right-handed batters and will face an Astros line-up in Houston loaded with right-handed power! Seriously read those numbers again – Nolasco has given up 12 home runs in 30 innings against RHB this season!
All the usual suspects are in play here today with Jose Altuve ($3,800), Carlos Correa ($4,200) and George Springer ($4,000) and the beauty of this stack is they will likely go over-looked by the masses paying up for Wrigley bats! If you are a fan of BvP do NOT overlook Brian McCann ($3,400) who is batting .338 (24 for 71) with 8 home runs in his career against Nolasco!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Trevor Williams ($6,600)
C: Brian McCann ($3,400)
1B: Anthony Rizzo ($4,200)
2B: Jose Altuve ($3,800)
3B: Kris Bryant ($4,100)
SS: Carlos Correa ($4,200)
OF: George Springer ($4,000)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($2,500)
OF: Mallex Smith ($2,000): When the Rays line-up was announced yesterday I started to dig into the stats of Mallex Smith, a $2k punt play batting lead-off for the Rays and I quickly inserted him into my line-ups where I needed a punt OF play as he has exceptional steals numbers and faced a pitcher who had given up 11 steals in 11 starts this year. I had no idea he would explode for 3 steals a home run and 52.6 FD points but if he is batting lead-off again, I am going right back to the well and will eat the chalk of Mallex Smith day!
Slate Overview: The Early Slate for me is all about offense as there are simply too many good spots to pass up! As we get closer to lock and the wind in Wrigley becomes a bigger story, expect the masses to flock towards this stack so I would be careful to pick your spots here and try and differentiate elsewhere. The Astros are the one team I am hoping goes over-looked and they have the match-up that could win you a GPP!
FanDuel MLB: Top Starting Pitcher Pick (Main):
Luis Severino ($9,500): The Main Slate is only five games but we have a ton of great pitching options to choose from including the decision of whether you are going to roster Chris Sale or not. Although Sale is the best pure arm on the slate, he has only put up more than 50 FD points one time in his last five starts and at $11.4K you basically need that kind of output to justify that price!
For my rosters I am going to pivot down to Luis Severino who gets a home start against an Orioles squad who may again be without Manny Machado today and we saw Jordan Montgomery dominate this line-up just last night. The Orioles struggle with sliders, a pitch Severino throws 36% of the time which is more than double the league average. Severino just faced this team on May 30th, struck out 8 batters in Baltimore and put up 50 FanDuel points!
In fact, Severino has 50 or more FanDuel points in two of his last three starts, comes into this game as a massive -200 home favorite and faces an Orioles team with the second lowest run projection on the board! This is a spot where I think paying up for Sale is a mistake as Severino has similar upside for $2k less which allows you to spend up at other spots in your line-up!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN):
Detroit Tigers versus Chris Sale: One of the reasons I think you can fade Sale on this slate is that FanDuel has installed their Kershaw-like dynamic pricing and moved all the Tigers elite bats to $2.5k on this slate!
The BvP truthers will be all over this match-up as the Tigers bats have a .275 average, .357 wOBA and 16 HR’s in 300 career at bats against Sale! On a short slate like this where Sale will likely be the highest owned pitcher, my strategy will be to not only fade Sale as a pitcher but load up on bats against him to double-down in GPP’s!
Miguel Cabrera ($2,500) is 14 for 49 with 4 home runs, Ian Kinsler ($2.500) is 12 for 45 with 3 home runs and J.D Martinez ($2,500) is 9 for 35 with 3 home runs! The risk here is real as Sale can dominate on any given day but the prices and history tell us that we can take a shot here for a low opportunity cost!
Yankees versus Chris Tillman: Tillman has been an absolute mess this season and faces a Yankee team that just lit him up for 5 ER in 2.2 IP! The Yankees have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate and considering Tillman has given up 10 runs in his last 8 innings it is no wonder the Yankees are expected to tee off again!
The prices on the Yankee bats are very reasonable as we can lock in guys like Brett Gardner ($3,500) who homered twice off Tillman in his last start, and Didi Gregorious ($3,100) / Gary Sanchez ($3,800) who help fill shallow roster spots on this slate!
Arizona in Chase Field: Another day of Chase Field and another day where the roof is going to be open so the ball should fly! Rather than full on stack, I am going to pick and choose some spots in this game for a few reasons – 1) Milwaukee will be without Travis Shaw (we wish him the best with his family) which makes the Brewers stack less appealing and 2) the pitchers going today give up less hard contact and HR/9 than we would typically like to target.
The one spot I think we can attack is Junior Guerra with left-handed bats as he has given up 37% hard contact in his career against LHB which puts Jake Lamb ($4,100) and David Peralta ($3,500) squarely in play as a mini-stack!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Luis Severino ($9,500)
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C: Gary Sanchez ($3,800)
1B: Miguel Cabrera ($2,500)
2B: Ian Kinsler ($2,500)
3B: Jake Lamb ($4,100)
SS: Didi Gregorious ($3,100)
OF: Brett Gardner ($3,500)
OF: David Peralta ($3,500)
OF: J.D. Martinez ($2,500)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate tonight is interesting as you have to decide what approach you are going to take with Chris Sale. From a GPP perspective I love the idea of doubling down and not only fading him as my SP but stacking against him with the $2.5k priced Tigers bats!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!