FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 14
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Main slate which kicks off at 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s Main winning GPP scores were well above our season average as it took 305.6 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 77 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.1 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 77 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 262.1 points.
Tuesday’s Main Slate was all about offense – don’t believe me? Go look at the winner of the $9 “ENORMOUS” GPP on FanDuel who won $20k with NEGATIVE 2 points from Marco Estrada as their starting pitcher! The Cubs and Twins offenses exploded for 34 combined runs with Eddie Rosario at 0.8% ownership erupting for 66.1 FanDuel points as the clear DFS hero of the night!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Picks:
As I do each day in my DFS process, I look back at the night before and try to understand where/why ownership went to the spots that it did and how it may have aligned/differed with my thinking going into the slate. On last night’s slate there was no debate that the best pure talent was with Clayton Kershaw but the question all day was whether or not he was worth the price of admission. I certainly expected a reduced ownership level (say 20%) which is why I targeting him in GPP’s but it always amazes me how the industry talk can drive ownership in certain directions and the “Do we really need Kershaw narrative?” ended up putting his ownership at 13% in GPP’s.
There was really no clear chalk arm but we had guys like Marco Estrada at similar ownership levels which makes you realize how people seem to over think their DFS decisions. As a fantasy sports writer active in the DFS community I get the opportunity to see this first hand across social media as with the plethora of knowledge available to every player, it seems more and more that the average player/fan is always trying to get cute and “pivot off the field.”
Thanks Brian for this fascinating write-up but why does this matter? Well take a look at today’s slate, dig into the numbers and match-ups and tell me you don’t come back with the same two clear top options. However will the narrative today after another GPP winner took down a big day day with a complete dud (-2 to be exact) from their starting pitcher be that you need to pay up for offense and try and and go cheaper at SP?
The reason I believe this narrative matters is that I think this is a slate you essentially have to pay up at starting pitcher, the question will be do the masses agree? Corey Kluber ($10,200) and Michael Pineda ($8,700) are two of the top three priced arms on this slate and the two clear options I am looking at on the Main Slate.
Kluber and Pineda are ranked 1-2 on today’s slate in the all important categories of K rate and swinging strike rate, the critical metrics for DFS GPP pitcher choices! The difference really comes down to match-up, which I believe is reflected in the price variance here, but the fact that Pineda takes on an Angels team with one of the lowest K rates in baseball and Kluber takes on a Dodgers team with the 6th highest K rate against RHP is what makes all the difference for me.
I think we saw a great example of where opponent K rate can suppress even in the best SP last night with Kershaw as the Indians slate low K rate aligned with Kershaw only being able to rack up 4 K’s!
The price difference may seem material in a vacuum but think about it this way – with Pineda you can build a roster with an average bat of $3.28k while Kluber’s average batter price is $3.1K. The difference really becomes negligible as you start to build your roster and my expectation is that Pineda will rule the day as the “tournament pivot off Kluber” which could end up resulting in inflated ownership making Kluber the actual sneaky GPP play!
FanDuel MLB: Top Hitting Stacks:
Minnesota Twins versus Sam Gaviglio: The Twins have the highest implied team total and just scored 20 runs last night and now get to face Sam Gaviglio – hello chalk city! Allow me to pour some cold water on your DFS love for the Twins bats – dig into the splits and you will see that Gaviglio has been able to neutralize right-handed bats this season with a massive 58% ground ball rate and a 28.9 % hard contact rate. The Twins are so right-handed heavy that this is actually a spot I think the fade is warranted as everyone and their mother/father/dog is going to do whatever they can to jam the Twins bats in today!
Arizona Diamondbacks versus Jordan Zimmerman: Looking over the Vegas totals, it is surprising to me that Arizona is in the bottom half of projected run totals on this slate as they face a pitcher who checks every “stack against me” box!
Zimmerman on the year is giving up over 2.1 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate, with a 43% hard contact rate to LHB and 34% to right-handed bats and an 8% swinging strike rate. So we have a home run prone pitcher giving up hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate AND he can’t seem to miss bats – yeah, stack it up baby!
Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600) and Jake Lamb ($4,000) are the premier plays here and I expect will be over-looked due to their high price points, especially being paired with Kluber, but there is enough value here that we can make it work! David Peralta ($3,500) hitting in front of these two is the perfect addition to a stack here and I will look to round it out with Brandon Drury ($2,400) who per the RotoGrinders Plate IQ tool profiles exceptionally well against a slider dominant pitcher in Zimmerman!
Chicago Cubs against Matt Harvey: Speaking of hitters who can’t miss bats, it is crazy to think Matt Harvey has the 5th lowest swinging strike rate on this slate but the reality is this is a guy who we need to consider stacking against each time out – and as a Mets fan it is painful to admit that! In addition to the low swinging strike rate, Harvey has the 7th lowest K rate on the slate and is giving up 34% hard contact this season – he is just simply not good at this point.
The Cubs bats will be popular in this spot – or should I say the top of the order should be popular but with Joe Maddon‘s line-up shuffle we can actually get a perfect 4-7 stack here with a ton of value pricing. After erupting for 14 runs last night I expect Anthony Rizzo will stay in the lead-off spot which sets the 4-7 to be – Jason Heyward ($2,800), Addison Russell ($2,900), Kyle Schwarber ($2,400) and Miguel Montero ($2,100).
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Corey Kluber ($10,200)
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C: Miguel Montero ($2,100)
1B: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,600)
2B: Brandon Drury ($2,400)
3B: Jake Lamb ($4,000)
SS: Addison Russel ($2,900)
OF: Jason Heyward ($2,800)
OF: Kyle Schwarber ($2,400)
OF: David Peralta ($3,500)
Slate Overview: As I mentioned in the open – will the narrative continue to be that we HAVE to pay up for hitting and try to find value SP? Take a look at the roster I have laid out with the top arm on the slate while still stacking two high-octane/upside offenses in great spots. Is it really necessary to pay down or can we dig deeper tonight to find value stacks that may be over-looked (ie. not the Twins).
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR on Twitter for all the late breaking lineup news and roster updates!