FanDuel MLB Daily Picks and Pivots – June 21
Welcome to the Wednesday FanDuel MLB edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy baseball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for today’s Early and Main slate which kicks off at 12:10 PM and 7:05 PM EST!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind FanDuel MLB Picks and Pivots is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
Tuesday’s Main winning GPP scores were right above our season average as it took 281.1 FanDuel points to take down a tournament! Over the first 84 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.1 points. Looking back at last season, the winning GPP lineup on average scored 255 FanDuel points with a typical roster build that allocated 25% of your salary cap to your SP and the remaining 75% to your hitters.
Over the first 84 slates of the FanDuel MLB season, the average winning score to take down a GPP has been 263.1 points.
Tuesday’s winning GPP formula was one we have seen more and more often lately – pay down at SP and load up on bats. Although Chris Sale had a high scoring night with 56 FanDuel points, the majority of the winning line-ups on the night went with much cheaper pitching options and allowed their offenses to carry them! The most common connection across winning line-ups was around a Dodgers stack that went off for 12 runs which was centered around Corey Seager‘s massive 3 home run 72 FanDuel point night! For those of you lucky enough to pair him at 3% ownership with a 5% owned Manny Machado who had a two home run 56 FD point night, well you most likely had yourself a great night in DFS!
Each day we will break down our top Starting Pitcher and our top hitting stacks of the day while giving you our thoughts on roster build and lineup construction.
As always, we will look to update our picks and final lineup thought prior to lock on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (EARLY):
Max Scherzer ($12,300): If you are playing the Early slate on FanDuel today we have only four games to choose from and the pitching choices are basically Max Scherzer and dart throws. With no team projected for 5+ runs, there is no obvious need to let our offense carry us and instead I will lock in the top arm with the highest K upside to anchor my Early Slate rosters.
Scherzer has a 35% K rate on the season, 10% higher than any other pitcher on this slate and with a 15% swinging strike rate and five straight double-digit strikeout performances the upside here is simply unmatched.
I do however find it interesting that the Marlins have a projected run total of 4.03 which is only .7 below their season average which is not the usual “discount” we see when an ace is on the mound. This is likely due to Scherzer’s tendency to allow home runs as he has given up 1.52 HR/9 to left-handed batters this season.
Normally I would not target hitter’s against my pitcher but I do think you can utilize the discounted Marlins bats as one-off plays on the Early Slate as we can play the angle that Scherzer may give up 1-2 home runs but we can live with that due to his double-digit K upside. Justin Bour ($2,600) is the player I would most likely use in this scenario as we can find value options in the OF but first base is a spot on the Early slate where there is not a ton of high upside power below $3k.
Scherzer is going to be massively owned and for good reason but on a short slate like this I am going to eat the chalk and look to differentiate elsewhere. Scherzer has not dropped below 50 FD points in any of his last five outings and has 60 or more in four of those five outings which could realistically put him 20-30 points ahead of the next closest arm on this slate – meaning you will need to find 1-2 home runs just to get even in your lineup and with mediocre offensive spots today I would rather take the pitching points!
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (EARLY):
The Reds/Tampa game is the top spot for me when building a stack on this slate and if you are building multiple line-ups I think you can target four man stacks from both sides of this game and build around Scherzer!
Reds versus Erasmo Ramirez: The Reds bats come into this game with price points that make a Scherzer based stack really easy to accomplish as outside of Joey Votto, the rest of the Reds bats sit right around $3k per player.
Ramirez this season has equal splits giving up 1.3 HR/9 to hitters from both sides of the plate but he gives up a massive 45.5% hard contact rate to left-handed batters on the season. Scott Schebler ($3,200), Billy Hamilton ($2,800), Adam Duvall ($3,300) and Eugenio Suarez ($3,100) are all at reasonable price points and can be used as one-off plays or a full four man stack to attack Ramirez in this spot.
Rays versus Tim Adleman: On the other side of this game the Rays will face off with Tim Adleman who has given up 2.15 HR/9 and 52% fly ball rate to left-handers this season which puts the Rays left-handed bats in a prime position.
Corey Dickerson ($3,700) has a .270 ISO this season against RHP with a .380 wOBA and can be paired with Logan Morrison ($3,800) who has a .341 ISO and .380 wOBA for a powerful two-man Rays stack. Mallex Smith ($2,700) at lead-off remains an elite source of value and you can complete a 1-4 Rays stack with Evan Longoria ($3,300) as Adelman gives up 33% hard contact to right-handed batters this season!
Cubs value versus Miguel Diaz: Diaz so far this season has given up 2 HR/9 and 34% hard contact in his brief minor league career and the Cubs line-up with a variety of players nursing injury could open up some significant value! Addison Russell ($2,800) , Javier Baez ($2,400) and Miguel Montero ($2,300) are the kind of players we will need to utilize in order to fit in a Rays/Reds stack with Scherzer.
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Max Scherzer ($12,300)
C: Miguel Montero ($2,300)
1B: Justin Bour ($2,600)
2B: Javier Baez ($2,400)
3B: Eugenio Suarez ($3,100)
SS: Addison Russell ($2,800)
OF: Scott Schebler ($3,200)
OF: Adam Duvall ($3,300)
OF: Billy Hamilton ($2,800)
Slate Overview: On a small slate like this my recommendation is to play small but do not be afraid to take some shots in large field tournaments where it becomes increasingly difficult to separate yourself from the field! I see no reason to get cute at pitcher today – simply lock in Max Scherzer and move on. You can easily build a Rays or Reds stack around Mad Max today and mix and match the Cubs value bats in (keep an eye out for the line-up) to make your roster work!
FanDuel MLB – Top Starting Pitcher Pick (MAIN):
Taijuan Walker ($5,900) A pitcher in Coors Field huh? Before you @ me (that’s what the kids say I think) let me explain my reasoning to you!
The Main Slate pitching options are a GPP player’s dream as we have no clear-cut ace, every arm under $10k and I would expect ownership will be spread out across the board! What that means to me is that the opportunity cost of “missing” on your starting pitcher is incredibly low as I would not expect any pitcher to truly separate themselves on this slate. As such I am willing to take chances and will look for high upside arms at cheap prices which allow me to get any bat I desire!
Walker has the difficult task of pitching on Coors Field but he has two previous starts in the thin air and has pitched to a 2.77 ERA with a .244 BAA. What really impressed me about Walker’s first start off the DL was his ability to generate swinging strikes as he posted a 13.4% swinging strike rate against the Tigers on his way to 6 K’s, 1 walk and 36 FanDuel points.
Walker has a near 50% ground ball rate this season and in order to succeed in Coors Field you need to generate ground ball outs and swinging strikes which is exactly what Walker has the ability to do! Walker throws his splitter 14% of the time so if he can generate ground ball outs to the Rockies hitters he has the ability to be a great point per dollar play on this slate.
The risk of taking a pitcher in Coors is always very real especially when the Rockies have a 6+ team total but if Walker can limit the damage tonight and rack up swinging strikes (therefore K’s) he could very easily return 30-35 FanDuel points and at this salary would put us in a great position to separate ourselves with high upside bats.
FanDuel MLB – Top Hitting Stacks (MAIN)
Yankees versus Ricky Nolasco: On the season Ricky Nolasco is giving up 43.3% hard contact and 3 HR/9 to right-handed batters and now has to face the Yankees in Yankee Stadium – giddy up! No need to over think this one – simply go right back to the well with Aaron Judge ($4,800) and Gary Sanchez ($3,800) who both homered last night in the Bronx and can be paired with the Yankees #5 hitter, Starlin Castro ($3,500) at 2B!
Dodgers versus Tyler Pill: Fade at your own risk! The Dodgers bats are absolutely on fire right now and tonight they get to take on a journeyman RHP in Tyler Pill who has a mediocre 15% K rate to LHB and a 10% walk rate which means balls in play and base runners to knock in!
Cody Bellinger ($4,300) and Corey Seager ($3,700) are the elite plays here and will be very popular but we do not over look the value elsewhere in the Dodgers line-up as we can build a full four man stack including Joc Pederson ($3,200) and Yasiel Puig ($2,800).
The Main Slate has seven offenses with implied team totals of 5 or more runs (and the Dodgers is not yet out) so this is a slate I think we need to focus on offense and simply look to take a shot with whatever SP we feel has the ability to “keep us alive” in tournaments!
FanDuel MLB – Sample GPP Line-up and Slate Overview:
P: Taijuan Walker ($5,900)
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C: Gary Sanchez ($3,800)
1B: Cody Bellinger ($4,300)
2B: Starlin Castro ($3,500)
3B: Jedd Gyorko ($2,800)
SS: Corey Seager ($3,700)
OF: Aaron Judge ($4,800)
OF: Joc Pederson ($3,200)
OF: Yasiel Puig ($2,800)
Slate Overview: The Main Slate is a GPP only slate for me (most usually are) but with so much offense and no clear-cut arm I think it makes sense to pay up for the stacks/bats you want and then multi-entry with some GPP dart throws at SP. We saw last night on the Main Slate that winning GPP teams had guys like Matt Moore or Mike Montgomery who got 40 FD points and allowed the offense to win them the slate – I think we need to take the same approach here today, pay down at SP and home run hunt with our stacks!
Best of luck in your FanDuel MLB contests and stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the late breaking line-up news and roster updates!